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Political Science > Environmental Policy

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Following the Money: Who is Keeping Coal Alive?
Gregor Schwerhoff and Mouhamadou Sy
The 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference reinforced already existing pressure to transition away from fossil fuels, in particular for the most polluting source, coal. We use a comprehensive dataset on bank loans for coal projects to shed light on which type of banks continue to finance coal and how coal phase-out commitments affect coal financing. We find that coal financing is becoming increasingly concentrated, partly in banks with a very high coal exposure. We also find that many coal loans have maturities much shorter than the remaining lifetime of coal assets, thus exposing equity holders of coal assets to the risk of a more difficult loan rollover. An econometric analysis shows that countries with a strong commitment to coal phase-out, fixed in national law for example, receive less coal financing. Using an instrumental variable, we identify this effect as causal.
Keywords:
Coal; climate change; stranded assets; coal; divestment; United Nations climate change conference; Coal financing; phase-out commitment; coal financing; financing to the coal sector; Non-renewable resources; Financial sector development; Climate policy; Foreign direct investment; Asia and Pacific; Global; Europe; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Banking Law and Climate Change: Key Legal Issues
Mario Tamez, Ender Emre, and Alessandro Gullo
This paper explores the intersection of climate change policies with banking supervisory law. Statutory mandates define banking supervisory agencies’ objectives, functions and powers. Policies that aim to address climate change risks appear fully germane to banking supervisors’ main objective of safety and soundness. As such, banking supervisory agencies have a duty to address climate risks in light of their mandate. A mandate that is not anchored on safety and soundness in light of best practice would blur the accountability of banking supervisory agencies and undermine their legitimacy also with respect to climate. While legal changes can help provide greater legal certaintly, particularly given the long-term perspective of climate change, bank supervisory agencies can take action without fundamental reforms of their legal framework. Accordingly, they have set expectations or requirements for banks to incorporate climate into their strategy and business model, risk management, and governance. A combination of legal instruments—based on soft law and hard law—helps to achieve this objective. Notwithstanding implementation challenges, taxonomies and disclosures remain important tools, and banking supervisors should assess their role in the development of such tools in light of their mandate. The key responsibility to address climate risks rests on banks, and corporate governance frameworks could assist.
Keywords:
Climate Change; Banking Law; Legal Framework; climate change risk; banking supervisor; corporate governance framework; supervisory agency; climate consideration; Climate policy; Bank legislation; Corporate governance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
New Zealand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper on New Zealand discusses addressing climate change. projections suggest the gap between New Zealand’s emissions targets and the projected path have narrowed significantly though more needs to be done if the Nationally Determined Contribution for 2030 is to be met. Three critical policy initiatives were introduced in 2022: the first Emissions Reduction Plan and associated emissions budgets were adopted; the National Adaptation Plan was published; and the government proposed its framework for pricing agriculture emissions, which account for around 62 percent of net emissions and are the missing piece in the emissions pricing framework. However, policies intended to address the cost-of-living crisis such as cuts to fuel taxes and duties could have an adverse impact on the feasibility of New Zealand’s emissions targets if prolonged. The heightened policy uncertainty was reflected in carbon prices: after peaking in November 2022, the price in the secondary market declined sharply and the June 2023 average price was around 40 percent below the peak level. The March 2023 Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) auction failed to clear, resulting in no new units being released. This is a cause for concern: If falling prices are not arrested, the envisaged emissions reductions may be out of reach. Further, as proceeds from the ETS auctions are intended to be used to support climate investments, shortfalls could put these at risk.
Keywords:
wage Phillips Curve; wage growth; wage inflation; wage pressure; min. wage; inflation expectation; Wages; Minimum wages; Climate change; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate finance; Australia and New Zealand; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of Climate Policy on Oil and Gas Investment: Evidence from Firm-Level Data
Mr. Christian Bogmans, Mr. Andrea Pescatori, and Ervin Prifti
Using a text-based firm-level measure of climate policy exposure, we show that climate policies have led to a global decline of 6.5 percent in investment among publicly traded oil and gas companies between 2015 and 2019, with European companies experiencing the most significant impact. Similarly, climate policy uncertainty has also had a negative impact. Results support the Neoclassical investment model, which predicts a pre-emptive cut in investment in reaction to downward shifts in prospective demand, in contrast with the “green paradox” that predicts an increase in current investment to shift production toward the present.
Keywords:
Fossil fuel phase out; Paris Agreement; energy transition; DiD; climate policy uncertainty; gas investment; investment model; climate policy exposure; gas firm; Climate policy; Oil sector; Climate change; Oil prices; Carbon tax; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Public Perceptions of Climate Mitigation Policies: Evidence from Cross-Country Surveys
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris, Mr. Thomas Helbling, Salma Khalid, Hibah Khan, Giacomo Magistretti, Alexandre Sollaci, and Mr. Krishna Srinivasan
Building public support for climate mitigation is a key prerequisite to making meaningful strides toward implementing climate mitigation policies and achieving decarbonization. Using nationally representative individual-level surveys for 28 countries, this note sheds light on the individual characteristics and beliefs associated with climate risk perceptions and preferences for climate policies.
Keywords:
Climate change; climate policies; carbon tax; perceptions; survey; climate mitigation policy; policy efficacy; policy implication; era Dabla-Norris; policy support; Climate policy; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monitoring the Climate Impact of Fiscal Policy - Lessons from Tracking the COVID-19 Response
Khaled Eltokhy, Ms. Katja Funke, Guohua Huang, Yujin Kim, and Genet Zinabou
In the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, governments around the world announced unprecedented fiscal packages to address the economic impact of the crisis. The unusually large scale of the packages was accompanied by widespread calls for “greening” them to meet the dual goals of economic recovery and environmental sustainability. In response, several researchers and international organizations attempted to assess the “greenness” of the fiscal policy response of the world’s largest economies. This paper takes stock of the contributions made by these various trackers, identifies strengths and weaknesses of their methodologies, and draws lessons for assessing the climate impact of fiscal policy going forward. It finds that: trackers provided useful assessments of the (generally low) level of greenness and raised awareness; trackers’ methodologies, while valid and innovative, varied significantly with some important, if currently largely unavoidable, weaknesses; and the way forward should involve tracking the greenness of entire government budgets, rather than just their response to the COVID-19 crisis.
Keywords:
Green fiscal policy tracker; green budgeting; COVID-19 response; climate impact assessment; IMF Green tracker policy archetype; climate impact; green fiscal policy tracker; climate relevance; fiscal policy response; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate policy; Climate change; Environmental policy; Global; COVID-19