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International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This Guidance Note provides guidance to country teams for surveillance under Article IV consultations. It supersedes the 2015 Guidance Note and its supplement. Fund surveillance continuously adapts to the evolving economic and financial landscape. The 2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review (CSR) identified priorities for Fund surveillance, both in terms of content and modalities. This Guidance Note covers: Scope and requirements: The note lays out the coverage of, and formal requirements for, Article IV consultations and staff reports. It also outlines best practices aimed at enhancing the traction of Fund analysis and policy advice. Priorities and focus. The note reflects the four surveillance priorities identified in the CSR: (i) confronting risks and uncertainties, (ii) preempting and mitigating spillovers, (iii) ensuring economic sustainability, and (iv) adopting a more unified approach to policy advice. The note also provides guidance on sharpening the focus and selectivity of Article IV staff reports. Policies. The note discusses the content of surveillance in the areas of fiscal policy, macrofinancial analysis and financial policies, monetary policy, external sector policies, and macrostructural policies. Applications. The note considers several applications of such policies, such as with respect to the Integrated Policy Framework, climate change, and gender. Process and procedures. The note describes the Article IV consultation cycle and process, lays out drafting and publication guidelines for staff reports, and covers the treatment of confidential information.
International Monetary Fund
Executive Directors welcomed the report of the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) on IMF Engagement with Small Developing States (SDS) and appreciated its insights and recommendations. They welcomed the report’s finding that the Fund has substantially stepped up its engagement with its SDS members over the past decade, and that SDS country officials generally considered Fund surveillance and capacity development (CD) activities of high quality and well-tailored to their needs.
International Monetary Fund
The report and its recommendations should also be careful to not impinge upon areas that are still unfolding, such as the RST, crisis response, and CD provision, to avoid unnecessary duplication of efforts and ensure that a coherent and evenhanded framework is in place. I offer qualified and/or partial support to the recommendations, as discussed below, to serve better our SDS members.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The war in Ukraine risks derailing the global economic recovery at a time when many countries have yet to overcome the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. Disruptions have already a severe impact on commodity markets, trade, and financial conditions, while inflation has become a major challenge in many countries and is adding to social pressures. The combination of shocks amplifies complex policy trade-offs that require astute macroeconomic management, for Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs), this includes preparing for higher interest rates that would translate into costlier terms of borrowing. Fuel and food price increases as well as food insecurity affect vulnerable populations the most, especially in low-income developing countries (LIDCs). Moreover, many LIDCs have only minimal or no policy space to absorb the war’s economic and financial spillovers. Reallocating spending and raising more revenues is paramount, as is advancing reforms that promote resilience. However, LIDCs also need support from the international community to finance priority expenditures and deal with often elevated debt burdens. Multilateral cooperation is more important than ever, and the IMF stands ready to help its members through policy advice, capacity development, and, where needed, financial support.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
Since the 2021 Annual Meetings, the IEO has made considerable progress with three ongoing evaluations, while two management implementation plans (MIPs) to follow up on recommendations from previous evaluations have been approved by the Board. In addition, to mark its twentieth birthday, the IEO organized a virtual conference to reflect on experience from its second decade and consider future challenges. We have also contributed to the ongoing work on institutional integrity at the IMF, drawing on a stocktaking of material contained in past evaluations and are considering additional work on these issues as we select two new evaluation topics later this year.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department, International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept., and International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
The challenges from the pandemic, spillovers from geopolitical shocks, and long-standing structural problems pose an enormous impediment for balance of payments stability and resilient and sustainable growth, especially for low-income and vulnerable middle-income countries. The $650 billion SDR allocation in August 2021 has helped support economic stability by supplementing members’ reserves. There is scope to amplify the effect of these SDRs by channeling them from countries with strong external positions to countries where the needs are the greatest.