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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses key issues and policies for the Rwandan economy. Economic growth in Rwanda has been stronger than expected in 2015. However, growth prospects in 2016 appear gloomy. For example, mining exports have been almost halved in recent months due to low price and low demand. The principal tool to tackle the slump in the economy is continued exchange rate flexibility, accompanied by modest tightening of the monetary stance. Also, there are mid-term policies, for example, export diversification, improved revenue mobilization, and better public financial management that can help achieve sustained high and inclusive growth while strengthening resilience.
International Monetary Fund
Poverty reduction strategies (PRS) are central to Fund-supported economic and financial programs in low-income countries (LICs). The joint IMF-World Bank’s Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative introduced the PRS approach and established documentation requirements centered on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). The PRS approach has also been a cornerstone for the Fund’s concessional financing, currently the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), and has been extended to the Policy Support Instruments (PSI), the non-financing instrument for LICs, with PRS documentation serving as the operational framework for development of strategies to promote growth and reduce poverty under Fund-supported programs.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Rwanda’s First Review Under the Policy Support Instrument. Rwanda continues to face the challenge of sustaining high growth while reducing its reliance on aid and preventing the build-up of imbalances. After using foreign exchange reserves over the past few years to support the economy, the room for maneuver is more limited and it will be important to rebuild policy buffers. Growth is projected to increase to 6 percent in 2014. In the short term, the need to support growth and preserve the level of foreign reserves requires a cautious fiscal stance while maintaining priority spending and leaving scope for private sector credit expansion.
Yasemin Bal Gunduz, Mr. Christian H Ebeke, Ms. Burcu Hacibedel, Ms. Linda Kaltani, Ms. Vera V Kehayova, Mr. Chris Lane, Mr. Christian Mumssen, Miss Nkunde Mwase, and Mr. Joseph Thornton

Abstract

This paper aims to assess the economic impact of the IMF’s support through its facilities for low-income countries. It relies on two complementary econometric analyses: the first investigates the longer-term impact of IMF engagement—primarily through successive medium-term programs under the Extended Credit Facility and its predecessors (and more recently the Policy Support Instrument)—on economic growth and a range of other indicators and socioeconomic outcomes; the second focuses on the role of IMF shock-related financing—through augmentations of Extended Credit Facility arrangements and short-term and emergency financing instruments—on short-term macroeconomic performance.

International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) evaluation on International Reserves: IMF Concerns and Country Perspectives was discussed by the Board in December 2012. This evaluation examined the IMF’s analysis of the effect of reserves on the stability of the international monetary system and its advice on reserve adequacy assessments in the context of bilateral surveillance. In the multilateral context, the evaluation acknowledged the IMF’s broader work stream on the international monetary system but noted that this work had not sufficiently informed the analysis and recommendations regarding reserves. The IEO evaluation of The Role of the IMF as Trusted Advisor was discussed by the Board in February 2013. This evaluation found that perceptions of the IMF had improved, but that they varied markedly by region and country type. Recognizing that there will always be an inherent tension between the IMF’s roles as a global watchdog and as a trusted advisor to member country authorities, the evaluation report explored how the IMF could sustain the more positive image it had achieved in the aftermath of the recent global crisis. The evaluation found that among key challenges facing the IMF were improving the value added and relevance of IMF advice and overcoming the perception of a lack of even-handedness.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The article summarizes the positive economic development of Rwanda and its internal and external policies. Rwanda’s economy is referred to as a success story, but it also faces certain challenges. The country is focused on maintaining macroeconomic stability, sustaining sturdy growth, and reducing poverty without foreign dependence. Fiscal and monetary policies have played key roles in economic growth. External stability is manageable, as it has significant profit in the global market. The authorities review this remarkable success of Rwanda’s economy as a great achievement.
International Monetary Fund
Rwanda’s Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) covers the period 2008–12 and provides a medium-term framework for achieving the country’s long-term development aspirations as embodied in Rwanda Vision 2020, the seven-year Government of Rwanda (GoR) program, and the Millennium Development Goals. The economic cluster covers the macroeconomic and financial sector (energy, transport, information and communication technology (ICT) and Science, Technology and Innovation (STI), private sector development, and environment and natural resources management; and the social sector covers health, water and sanitation, education, social protection, and youth. The government cluster is also viewed.
International Monetary Fund
Satisfactory implementation of the economic program supported by the Policy Support Instrument has helped Rwanda during the global economic downturn. The program focuses on maintaining a sustainable fiscal position; strengthening monetary and exchange rate policies; and supporting growth with structural reforms to diversify the export base and improve the business environment. The authorities are committed to assess the inflation to safeguard the gains made in macroeconomic stability that currently underpin the economic recovery. Executive Directors emphasized the need to maintain macroeconomic stability to achieve sustainable growth.
International Monetary Fund
Rwanda has achieved high growth and macroeconomic stability under three successive Poverty Reduction Growth Facility (PRGF) arrangements. Executive Directors welcomed the new Private Sector Investment (PSI) program, which aims to consolidate macroeconomic stability and achieve sustained broad-based growth while reducing Rwanda’s aid dependency. They emphasized that this can be achieved by maintaining sustainable fiscal position, strengthening monetary and exchange rate policies, and supporting growth with structural reforms. In view of this, Directors approved a three-year PSI for Rwanda for preserving macroeconomic stability, consistent with the authority's poverty reduction and growth strategy, Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS).
International Monetary Fund
This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that monetary policy of Kenya has been expansionary since 2003/04 to promote economic growth. This has, however, contributed to the recent rise in inflation. Executive Directors have observed the progress that has been made under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF)-supported program, which has contributed to a rebound in economic growth and arrested the rise in domestic debt. However, Directors have noted that Kenya faces serious challenges. In particular, growth remains too slow for making inroads into poverty, and governance remains a critical concern.