International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept., International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &, Review Department, and International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The note concludes that the Fund could support a member’s use of buybacks, cash sweeteners, or collateral in the context of a Fund-supported program, provided that (i) debt restructurings using buybacks, cash sweeteners or collateral offer significant efficiency gains relative to debt restructurings that do not rely on such instruments, but are underpinned by a regular Fund-supported program; and (ii) an adequate cushion of non-multilateral debt remains after the operation. The conditions under which buybacks, cash sweeteners or collateral can be expected to deliver significant efficiency gains are narrow and specified in some detail.
This paper discusses Poland’s Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) and Cancellation of the Current Arrangement. The FCL arrangements since 2009 have served Poland well, providing valuable insurance against external shocks. With the support of the consecutive FCL arrangements, Poland has weathered bouts of market turbulence well, and remains an attractive investment destination. The authorities intend to continue treating the FCL as precautionary and consider it a temporary supplement to reserves. In IMF staff’s view, Poland continues to meet the qualification criteria for continued access to the FCL.
KEY ISSUES Background: Poland’s strong fundamentals and sound policies helped it to successfully withstand several bouts of market turbulence and paved the way for economic recovery. While Poland has benefited from its continued transformation into a more open and dynamic economy, its substantial trade and financial linkages with global markets, combined with still-large financing needs, also make it vulnerable to external shocks. Outlook and risks: With only modest growth in its trading partners, economic activity in Poland is expected to remain moderate in the near term. Risks remain tilted to the downside amid concerns about a protracted slowdown in the euro area, continued geopolitical tensions in the region, and uncertainty surrounding normalization of monetary policy in the United States. Domestically, the risk of continued disinflation remains high. Flexible Credit Line (FCL): Against this background, the authorities are requesting a new two-year precautionary FCL arrangement with proposed lower access in the amount of SDR 15.5 billion (918 percent of quota) and cancellation of the current arrangement, approved on January 18, 2013. Poland’s improved economic fundamentals and increased policy buffers have reduced financing needs. However, external risks remain elevated. In this context, the authorities consider that a new FCL in the requested amount would provide an important insurance against external risks, help sustain market confidence, and support their economic strategy. At the same time, the authorities consider that the substantial reduction in access sends a clear signal of their intention to fully exit from the FCL once external risks recede. In staff’s view, Poland continues to meet the qualification criteria for access under the FCL arrangement. Fund liquidity: The impact of the proposed commitment of SDR 15.5 billion on Fund liquidity would be manageable. Process: An informal meeting to consult with the Executive Board on a possible FCL arrangement for Poland was held on December 19, 2014.
Poland’s economy has recovered well in 2010–11, reflecting strong economic fundamentals and decisive countercyclical policies. Poland’s strong trade and financial links to Europe continue to make it vulnerable to potential shocks from the region. Despite the difficult external environment, the authorities have continued to rebuild policy space to counter adverse shocks. Measures are also being taken to strengthen medium- and long-term fiscal sustainability. The economy is expected to moderate further in 2013. Financial sector policies have helped improve the resilience of the banking system.
Following a two-year long recession, a gradual recovery of St. Kitts and Nevis’ highly indebted economy is under way. The government has shown remarkable resolve in pursuing fiscal consolidation. Notwithstanding the fiscal adjustment, a comprehensive and timely public debt restructuring is critical for the program to be fully financed and to achieve debt sustainability. Available financial sector indicators point to a well-capitalized banking system. Regulation of the non-bank financial sector has been strengthened, but continued efforts are needed to ensure effective supervision.
In this study, economic recovery and growth of Macedonia are discussed. In the financial sector, nonperforming loans (NPLs) rose, and bank profitability declined as a result of the crisis. Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. Directors were encouraged by the overall healthy condition of the financial system. The need to accelerate structural reforms and strengthen public infrastructure to raise productivity and help reduce high unemployment is encouraged. Macedonia met the Precautionary Credit Line (PCL) qualification requirements.
Poland’s macroeconomic performance was strong during the global crisis, supported by sound economic policies. The previous Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangements served the Polish economy well and provided adequate insurance against negative spillover risks. Executive Directors emphasized the need to implement economic policies that preserve macroeconomic stability. Against this background, Directors approved the request for a new two-year arrangement under the FCL, which would provide an essential buffer against a possible increase in risk aversion. The authorities intend to treat the new FCL arrangement as a precautionary instrument.
Poland’s macroeconomic performance was strong in the decade leading up to the global crisis. Poland’s commitments to the EU Stability and Growth Pact helped lower the fiscal deficit and limit government debt. Its strong financial supervisory framework helped foster a well-capitalized banking system. A successor Flexible Credit Line arrangement for Poland will play an important role in supporting the government’s economic policy strategy. Although Poland’s underlying fundamentals remain strong, there are risks to the near-term outlook, considering its large and open capital markets.
This paper focuses on an arrangement under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) for the Republic of Poland. Poland’s macroeconomic performance has been very strong. The authorities believe that access under an FCL arrangement in the amount of SDR 13.69 billion could help maintain market access and safeguard against downside risks during the current period of high volatility and retrenchment in international capital markets. IMF staff concurs and believes that, given Poland’s regional importance, the FCL may provide insurance not only to Poland, but also to the region more broadly.
This paper quantifies the economic impact of changes in U.S. monetary policy on emerging market countries. We explore empirically how country risk, as proxied by sovereign bond spreads, is influenced by U.S. monetary policy, country-specific fundamentals, and conditions in global capital markets. In addition, we simulate the direct effects of a tightening in U.S. monetary policy on economic conditions in developing countries. While country-specific fundamentals are important in explaining fluctuations in country risk, the stance and predictability of U.S. monetary policy are also important for stabilizing capital flows and capital market conditions and fostering economic growth in developing countries.