Asia and Pacific > Philippines

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International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance report highlights institutional weaknesses that need to be addressed and proposes eight priority reform measures to strengthen the public investment management framework in the Philippines. This report reviews public investment management practices in the Philippines, using the IMF’s Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) methodology. The PIMA findings could guide the upcoming Public Expenditure Review that is likely to be completed with the support of the World Bank. The PIMA provides a broad overview of institutional strengths and weaknesses along the public investment cycle. Strengthening public investment management in the Philippines would help maximize the return from the infrastructure investment in the coming years. While the public investment management institutions in the Philippines are generally comparable to emerging market economies, there is scope to improve performance. Standard methodologies for maintenance planning and costing of infrastructure assets exist for certain types of assets, and the same practice should be extended to other sectors. It would also be beneficial to establish a central monitoring mechanism to ensure the routine maintenance of major infrastructure assets.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the impact of scaled-up public investment in Burkina Faso. The results suggest that “big-push” investment efforts, while designed to accelerate growth, are likely to run up against significant absorption-capacity constraints. These constraints will diminish the efficiency of investment spending and result in lower public capital accumulation and productivity growth than under a more measured approach. The empirical evidence from the experience of many countries also suggests that the results of aggressive scaling-up initiatives are mixed.
Mr. Takuji Komatsuzaki
This paper explores the macroeconomic effects of improving public infrastructure in the Philippines. After benchmarking the Philippines relative to its neighbors in terms of level of public capital and quality of public infrastructure, and public investment efficiency, it uses model simulations to assess the macroeconomic implications of raising public investment and improving public investment efficiency. The main results are as follows: (i) increasing public infrastructure investment results in sustained gains in output; (ii) the effects of improving public investment efficiency are substantial; and (iii) deficit-financed increases in public investment lead to higher borrowing costs that constrain output increases over time, underscoring the importance of revenue mobilization.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper examines the interaction between real and financial cycles in the Philippines and their relationship to the global financial cycle. It finds that the surge in capital inflows between 2010 and mid-2013 can largely be explained by global financial factors such as global risk aversion, with exchange rate expectations and domestic fundamentals playing a secondary role. Moreover, local bond yields and retail bank rates seem to be driven by the same global factors and the U.S. term premiums. The paper suggests that the quantitative impact of VIX shocks on domestic demand via capital flows and asset repricing and of changes in the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields on bank credit and investment, are significant.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Philippine economy continues to expand strongly in line with potential growth. Real GDP grew by 6.1 percent in 2014, driven by household consumption, private construction, and exports of goods and services. Economic growth slowed in the first quarter of 2015, owing mainly to temporary factors, including the effects of dry weather on agricultural production, weak global demand for exports, and slow budget execution. The outlook for the Philippine economy remains favorable despite uneven and generally weaker global growth prospects. Real GDP is projected to grow by 6.2 percent in 2015, as lower commodity prices lift household consumption and improved budget execution raises public spending.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on Thailand reviews public investment and investment recovery from financial crises. Thailand is a country with a moderate tax effort, which indicates that increases in public saving should be achieved through a mixture of tax and expenditure measures. Future budgets should accommodate the megaprojects without putting excessive pressures on public finances, inflation, and the external balance. Least present value of revenue (LPVR) auctions alleviate the demand risk inherent in the fixed-term contracts and thus eliminate a key driver for renegotiations and the provision of minimum income guarantees.
International Monetary Fund
This paper pursues several objectives. First, it presents a sketch of a positive (or real-world) theory of public sector intervention. Second, it analyzes in some detail the activity of the public sector in nine market economies of developing Asia and relates this activity to the growth of the foreign debt of these countries. It is argued that the relatively good performance of those countries was achieved at considerable and growing costs, especially in terms of external debt accumulation. Finally, the paper uses the experience of the Asian countries to draw some general lessons for the current debt strategy.