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Thitipat Chansriniyom, Mr. Natan P. Epstein, and Valeriu Nalban
The paper extends a standard semi-structural model to account for nonlinear and asymmetric effects of monetary policy credibility. In our setting, central bank credibility is proportional to the deviation of inflation expectations from the announced inflation target, with positive deviations being more costly compared to negative ones. A loss in policy credibility as a result of shocks leads to a more persistent, backward-looking inflation process, and is associated with lower output. We find that the extended model with credibility effects matches well the key macroeconomic data over specific past episodes for Indonesia and Philippines and consider its adaptation to integrated policy frameworks as an area for further exploration.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper on the Philippines explores export performance in the context of global trade tensions. Unlike many Asian countries, the Philippines’ exports of goods have remained stable through the ongoing period of global trade tensions. Its low participation in global trade as well as in global value chains relative-to-peers seems to explain why the Philippines has not yet been negatively impacted by the trade tensions. On the other hand, despite its close trade ties with the United States, the Philippines has not benefitted much from trade diversion originated from the US–China bilateral tariffs, unlike Vietnam and Mexico. Philippines’ exports have slightly increased in dollar terms since 2017, but they have remained broadly stable in GDP terms. The Philippines does not appear to have benefitted much from the US–China trade tensions, but it has performed better than many of its peers at the aggregate level. The comparative advantages of the Philippines in terms of exports reside in high tech industries, which constitute its main exports. The Philippines has a revealed comparative advantage in exporting from high technology industries. In sum, the disaggregated trade data evidence suggests that the Philippines was not able to scale-up its exports to the United States as much as Vietnam and Mexico in many high- to medium-tech goods included in the US tariff lists.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Philippines highlights that the economic performance remains strong. The discussions focused on macroeconomic policies to keep the economy close to balance under the baseline outlook and risk scenarios; strategies for macroprudential policies to address risks from a potential renewed acceleration in credit growth; and policies and reforms to foster stronger and inclusive growth. Growth regained momentum in the second half of 2019 following a slowdown in the first half. The latter primarily reflected budgetary developments, with some temporary government underspending in the early part of the year. A decisive monetary policy tightening in response to the inflation spike and overheating risks in 2018 and weaker external demand also contributed. The structural reform momentum and infrastructure push remain strong. Gross domestic product growth is projected to rise further in the near term, underpinned by government spending acceleration and the recent monetary policy easing. Risks to the outlook are to the downside, reflecting risks to the global economy from increased trade tensions, shifts in global financial conditions, and natural disasters.
Mr. Si Guo, Mr. Philippe D Karam, and Mr. Jan Vlcek
Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence of inflation pressures from both sides in 2018, with the supply factors, by and large, associated with commodity-price shocks and demand factors deduced from gleaning at the wider non-oil trade deficits seen in the Philippines. Quantitatively, we deploy a semi-structural model to decompose the contributions of various shocks to inflation. Our main findings are (1) supply factors (mainly global commodity prices) played a prominent role in explaining the rise in inflation in 2018; (2) demand factors also contributed to inflation in a non-negligible way, justifying the need for tighter monetary policy in 2018; (3) the size of the estimated output gap (an important indicator of demand pressures) could be larger, when considering the widening trade deficits in 2018; and (4) a delayed monetary policy tightening can be costly in terms of higher inflation rates, requiring larger and more aggressive interest rate hikes to bring inflation under control, based on a counterfactual exercise.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of The Philippines continues to perform well but is facing new challenges. Real GDP growth is projected to grow strongly in 2018 and 2019, supported by domestic demand. However, poverty and inequality challenges remain, inflation has risen, and external uncertainty has increased. The medium-term economic outlook remains favorable, but short-term risks have risen. Real GDP growth is projected at just under 7 percent over the medium term. Inflation is projected at above the 4 percent upper target bound in 2018 and stay in the upper half of the target band during 2019–2020. The current account deficit is projected to remain manageable, financed largely by foreign direct investment.
Geraldine Dany-Knedlik and Juan Angel Garcia
This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.
Mr. Giovanni Ganelli and Nour Tawk
We use a Global VAR model to study spillovers from the Bank of Japan’s quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) on emerging Asia.1 Our main result is that, despite an appreciation of their currencies vis-à-vis the yen, the impact on emerging Asia’s GDP tended to be positive and significant. Our results suggest that the positive effect of QQE on expectations, by improving confidence, more than offset any negative exchange rate spillover due to expenditure switching from domestic demand to Japanese goods. They also suggest that spillovers from QQE might have worked mainly through the impact of expectations and improved confidence, captured by increases in equity prices, rather than through balance sheet adjustments which might have been captured by movements in the monetary base.