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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Over the last quarter of a century, Peru has become one of the most dynamic economies in Latin America. During this period, Peru built very strong policy and institutional frameworks and economic fundamentals while maintaining external, financial, and fiscal stability. The strength of the Peruvian economy was tested with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when the economy collapsed, leading to a significant deterioration of the fiscal accounts. Subsequently, the economy recovered strongly in 2021, and the fiscal position strengthened considerably, while inflationary pressures emerged (in line with global trends). However, Peru is bearing a very high humanitarian and economic cost from the COVID-19 pandemic, sizable under-employment, and a large increase in poverty. These challenges and recent social unrest related to high energy and food prices point to the need to accelerate structural reforms to foster high and inclusive growth. While political uncertainty has risen, with frequent cabinet reshufflings, the authorities remain committed to maintaining their very strong policy frameworks and prudent macroeconomic policies.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
After being hit very hard by the pandemic in 2020, both in terms of health and economic outcomes, Peru experienced an equally strong economic rebound in 2021. A new administration was inaugurated in July 2021 with a program focused on reducing inequality and improving social conditions, but limited support from Congress and lack of cohesion heightened political uncertainty. While real GDP surpassed its pre-pandemic level by 2021, labor force participation and total employment have not fully recovered yet. Poverty increased significantly in 2020 and, despite some improvement in 2021, remains higher than in 2019. On May 27, 2021, the IMF Executive Board completed the mid-term review of Peru’s continued qualification under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangement.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Peru’s very strong macroeconomic policies and institutional policy frameworks have helped anchor strong growth and stability over the past several years and navigate the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The confluence of a sound inflation-targeting regime, flexible exchange rate, credible fiscal framework, reflected in very low public debt, and sound financial sector supervision and regulation have allowed the country to deploy a robust policy response to mitigate the socio-economic impact of the pandemic while sustaining strong access to international capital markets. Following the worst economic contraction in 30 years, economic activity is expected to rebound this year as COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out, and the pandemic is gradually brought under control. Real GDP is expected to return to its pre-pandemic level by 2022, supported by improved terms-of-trade and a pick-up in domestic demand. The second round of presidential elections is scheduled for June 6.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The current FCL arrangement for Colombia was approved in May 2020. Colombia was cited for its very strong policy frameworks—anchored by a flexible exchange rate, a credible inflation-targeting regime, effective financial sector supervision and regulation, and a structural fiscal rule—and a track record of very strong policy implementation that served as a basis for the economy’s resilience prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses that Peru’s economic performance continues to be strong, however, external and domestic headwinds, including the fallout from Lava Jato corruption investigations, have reduced growth momentum and raised concerns about long-term growth prospects. Policy responses have been appropriate, but further reforms have been delayed by a political stalemate between the executive and legislative powers. After President Vizcarra dissolved Congress in September 2019, new parliamentary elections will be held in January 2020. The current slowdown in activity and heightened uncertainty justify policy stimulus. However, the fiscal stance is procyclical owing to higher-than-expected revenues and low execution of public investment. Against this background, monetary policy easing is particularly appropriate given the absence of inflationary pressures, while accelerated budget execution would mitigate the procyclical fiscal policy stance. In the medium term, additional fiscal space from tax revenues and effective expenditure control is needed to address priorities in infrastructure and social spending while a gradual transition to greater exchange rate flexibility would foster financial market development. In addition to infrastructure investment, key reforms are needed to improve governance and fight corruption, boost competitiveness, and reduce informality.

Abstract

This booklet summarizes the presentations in the conference titled “Enhancing Chile’s Fiscal Framework: Lessons from Domestic and International Experience,” organized by Chile’s Ministry of Finance and the International Monetary Fund in January of 2019. The conference’s objective was to explore challenges and possible opportunities to improve Chile’s fiscal framework, including the fiscal rule, by looking at the Chilean and international experience. The conference had the valuable participation of current and former senior policymakers from Chile, including former Ministers of Finance ranging across the political spectrum and central bank presidents, which provided an insightful perspective in areas for improvement in the realm of fiscal policy. These views were complemented by representatives from the IMF and the Inter-American Development Bank, academics, and country officials from New Zealand and Peru, which provided lessons from the international experience.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Peru has successfully navigated the commodity cycle and the 2008–09 global financial crisis, and still leads growth among large Latin American economies. Following a sharp and unexpected drop in 2014, growth picked up in 2015, reaching 3.3 percent largely owing to higher metals production and fishing, and a partial recovery in services and commerce. Peru is now positioned to grow faster in the next two years, as mining production reaches full capacity and large infrastructure projects advance. Inflation is expected to decline. Risks to the outlook are balanced, and downside risks are mostly on the external side.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses key issues related to the Colombian economy. Despite adverse global circumstances, Colombia’s successful policies and inclusive growth agenda continued in 2015. Colombia’s strong policy framework helped ensure an orderly adjustment to the deteriorated external conditions. Although the medium-term outlook is favorable, it is surrounded by downside risks. The main near-term risks stem from Colombia’s still significant near-term external financing needs and potential capital inflow reversals, the result of volatile global financial conditions. On the upside, bringing the peace process to fruition could further improve business confidence and capital inflows, reinforcing the recovery that will follow the necessary adjustment process.

Abstract

La eficiencia, la eficacia y la transparencia de la gestión financiera pública en América Latina son fundamentales para la supervisión de los recursos públicos, la estabilidad fiscal y el desarrollo económico sostenible. En años recientes, los países de América Latina han adoptado reformas en la gestión financiera pública y han logrado muchos avances importantes; sin embargo, todavía existen retos. Este libro reúne el conocimiento y las experiencias del personal técnico del FMI y el BID y de representantes de 16 Gobiernos de la región para documentar estas reformas, y examina las experiencias y las lecciones aprendidas. Es un recurso valioso para quienes se ocupan de estos temas en la gestión financiera pública.

Abstract

In recent years, the countries of Latin America have embraced reforms in public financial management and have made many important advances—however, many challenges remain. This book brings together IMF and IDB staff and representatives from 16 governments in the region to document these reforms, and to examine the experiences and lessons learned. It is a valuable resource for those looking at issues in public financial management.