International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper describes Costa Rica’s vulnerability to potential policy changes in the United States after the November 2016 presidential election and its effects on Central America. In the near term, the most likely US policy shift is a change in the macroeconomic policy mix, involving an expansionary fiscal policy—implemented initially through tax cuts—and a tighter than previously expected monetary policy stance. The results suggest that Costa Rica could be more affected through the foreign direct investment and trade channels, unlike the rest of Central America, where remittances and immigration play a key role.
Many Latin American economies have experienced significant reductions in growth recently, as a result of the end of the commodity super-cycle and the rebalancing of China’s growth, and a number of global banks have been leaving the region. AlthoughLatin American countries were generally less affected by the global financial crisis (GFC) than other regions, the region continues also to suffer from the protracted sluggish growth in advanced economies. In addition, there has since 2008 been a withdrawal of global banks from the region, thus potentially worsening access to credit or reducing competition in the financial sector. More broadly, the GFC demonstrated that extreme economic volatility can originate from outside the region, rather than internally, as was the experience of the 1980s and 1990s...
¿Cómo consolidar los avances logrados con tanto esfuerzo, acrecentar la capacidad de resistencia a los shocks y alcanzar un mayor crecimiento económico a fin de reducir la pobreza? Estos son los desafíos que se le presentan en el camino a América Central en el proceso de recuperación de la estabilidad macroeconómica. Este estudio analiza las políticas de América Central en los sectores real, fiscal, monetario y financiero a nivel regional, comenzando por un análisis del crecimiento y de las implicaciones macroeconómicas de las remesas. Seguidamente se abordan la sostenibilidad de los sistemas de pensiones, el desarrollo del sistema financiero, las vulnerabilidades de la deuda soberana y las formas de apoyar el avance en la reducción de la inflación fortaleciendo la credibilidad de los bancos centrales.
How to entrench hard-won gains, increase resilience to shocks, and improve growth performance to reduce poverty? As Central America moves forward in regaining macroeconomic stability, these are the challenges. This study analyzes Central America’s real, fiscal, monetary, and financial sector policies at the regional level, starting with a review of growth performance and the macroeconomic implications of remittances. It then looks at the sustainability of pension systems, financial system development, sovereign debt vulnerabilities, and ways to sustain progress in reducing inflation by strengthening the credibility of central banks.
This Selected Issues paper on Panama explores the current situation and trends of the Caja del Seguro Social (CSS) in Panama. The autonomy is embedded in its Organic Law, which also provides the agency with the right to have separate funds from the central government. The slowdown in economic activity and employment has led to a decline in the coverage of the social security system. The Panamanian pension levels are generous, despite the lack of indexation, even by the high standard of advanced European countries, and among the highest in Latin America.