Chiara Broccolini, Giulia Lotti, Alessandro Maffioli, Mr. Andrea F Presbitero, and Rodolfo Stucchi
We use loan-level data on syndicated lending to a large sample of developing countries between 1993 and 2017 to estimate the mobilization effects of multilateral development banks (MDBs), controlling for a large set of fixed effects. We find evidence of positive and significant direct and indirect mobilization effects of multilateral lending on the number of deals and on the total size of bank inflows. The number of lending banks and the average maturity of syndicated loans also increase after MDB lending. These effects are present not only on impact, but they last up to three years and are not offset by a decline in bond financing. There is no evidence of anticipation effects and the results are not driven by confounding factors, such as the presence of large global banks, Chinese lending and aid flows. Finally, the economic effects are sizable, suggesting that MBDs can play a vital role to mobilize private sector financing to achieve the goals of the 2030 Development Agenda.
Luc Eyraud, Ms. Diva Singh, and Mr. Bennett W Sutton
The timing is ripe to pursue greater regional financial integration in Latin America given the withdrawal of some global banks from the region and the weakening of growth prospects. Important initiatives are ongoing to foster financial integration. Failure to capitalize on this would represent a significant missed opportunity. This paper examines the scope for further global and regional financial integration in Latin America, based on economic fundamentals and comparisons to other emerging regions, and quantifies the potential macroeconomic gains that such integration could bring. The analysis suggests that closing the financial integration gap could boost GDP growth be ¼ - ¾ percentage point in these countries, on average.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines several real sector issues, including estimates of potential output, the effect of Intel’s withdrawal on gross domestic product (GDP), labor market and inequality and electricity prices in Costa Rica. The production function approach shows that the main drivers of fluctuations in GDP growth are total factor productivity (TFP) and labor supply. These results on TFP, however, should be interpreted with caution. The TFP measure is a residual—the difference between output growth and the growth in the quantity (and quality) of inputs. Estimates suggest that potential GDP growth is about 4.3 percent, the output gap is broadly closed, and Intel’s withdrawal will lower real GDP growth in about 1/2 percentage point. Significant wage premia are identified across public versus private sectors and some evidence of intergenerational inequality is also presented. Electricity tariffs are found to be regionally competitive albeit with inefficiencies in their determination.