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Can Sever and Manuel Perez-Archila
This paper builds a framework to quantify the financial stability implications of climate-related transition risk in Colombia. We explore risks imposed on the banking system based on scenarios of an increase in the domestic carbon tax by using bank- and firm-level data. Focusing on the deterioration of firms’ balance sheets and the exposure of banks to different sectors, we assess the extent to which such policy shock would transmit from nonfinancial firms to the banking system. We observe that sectors are affected unevenly by a higher carbon tax. Agriculture, manufacturing, electricity, wholesale and retail trade, and transportation sectors appear to be the most important in the transmission of the risk to the banking system. Results also suggest that a large increase in the carbon tax can generate significant but likely manageable financial stability risks, and that a gradual increase in the carbon tax to meet a higher target over several years could be preferable in terms of financial risks. A gradual increase would also have the benefit of allowing for a smoother adjustment to higher carbon tax for stakeholders.
Nicoletta Batini, Ian W.H. Parry, and Mr. Philippe Wingender
Denmark has a highly ambitious goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 70 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. While there is general agreement that carbon pricing should be the centerpiece of Denmark’s mitigation strategy, pricing needs to be effective, address equity and leakage concerns, and be reinforced by additional measures at the sectoral level. The strategy Denmark develops can be a good prototype for others to follow. This paper discusses mechanisms to scale up domestic carbon pricing, compensate households, and possibly combine pricing with a border carbon adjustment. It also recommends the use of revenue-neutral feebate schemes to strengthen mitigation incentives, particularly for transportation and agriculture, fisheries and forestry, though these schemes could also be applied more widely.
Pierpaolo Grippa and Samuel Mann
This paper explores three possible transmission channels for transition risk shocks to the financial system in Norway. First, we estimate the direct firm-level impact of a substantial increase in domestic carbon prices under severe assumptions. Second, we map the impact of a drastic increase in global carbon prices on the domestic economy via the Norwegian oil sector. Third, we model the impact of a forced reduction in Norwegian oil firms’ output on shareholder portfolios. Results show that such a sharp increase in carbon prices would have a significant but manageable impact on banks. Finally, the paper discusses ways to advance the still evolving field of transition risk stress testing.
Ms. Valerie Reppelin and Mr. John Norregaard

Abstract

Se examinan diferentes formas de controlar la contaminación a través de impuestos o licencias “verdes” y se evalúan sus ventajas y desventajas. Si bien muchos países utilizan impuestos ambientales, el interés en los permisos negociables va en aumento.

Ms. Valerie Reppelin and Mr. John Norregaard

Abstract

Explores different ways of controlling pollution through -green-taxes or permits, and evaluates their advantages and disadvantages. While many countries use environmental taxes, interest in tradable permits is growing.

Ms. Valerie Reppelin and Mr. John Norregaard

Abstract

Explores different ways of controlling pollution through -green-taxes or permits, and evaluates their advantages and disadvantages. While many countries use environmental taxes, interest in tradable permits is growing.

Ms. Valerie Reppelin and Mr. John Norregaard

Abstract

Explores different ways of controlling pollution through -green-taxes or permits, and evaluates their advantages and disadvantages. While many countries use environmental taxes, interest in tradable permits is growing.

Ms. Valerie Reppelin and Mr. John Norregaard

Abstract

Cette brochure examine les avantages et inconvénients relatifs des écotaxes et des permis comme outils de maîtrise de la pollution. Alors que de nombreux pays recourent aux écotaxes, l'intérêt pour les permis négociables augmente.

Ms. Valerie Reppelin and Mr. John Norregaard

Abstract

Explores different ways of controlling pollution through -green-taxes or permits, and evaluates their advantages and disadvantages. While many countries use environmental taxes, interest in tradable permits is growing.

Mr. John Norregaard and Ms. Valerie Reppelin
This paper examines the relative merits of two dominant economic instruments for reducing pollution—”green” taxes and tradable permits. Theoretically, the two instruments share many similarities, and on balance, neither seems preferable to the other. In practice, however, most countries have relied more on taxes than on permits to control pollution. The analysis suggests a number of lessons to be learned from country experiences regarding the design and implementation of both instruments. While many, particularly European countries, currently have long-term programs involving environmental taxes, a willingness to experiment with tradable permits seems to be growing, especially given the Kyoto protocol emission targets.