We analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on investment in the euro area. Our identification strategy assumes that countries that are relatively more dependent on global trade networks exhibit a higher sensitivity of investment with respect to trade uncertainty. We find that the investment-to-GDP ratio is on average 0.8 percentage points lower for five quarters following a one standard deviation increase in the level of trade uncertainty. We demonstrate that these results are unlikely to be driven by omitted variables and that they are robust to different measures of trade uncertainty and trade openness. Our analysis suggests that the detrimental effect of trade tensions goes beyond lower trade growth, as uncertainty can reduce investment and the economy’s long-term growth potential.
This Selected Issues paper for Australia highlights the dynamics of the Australian real exchange rate and its impact on Australia’s trade. The main findings are that the Australian real exchange rate is largely driven by world commodity prices and that it adjusts relatively rapidly to large shocks, with an estimated half-life of 16 months. The real exchange rate is a significant determinant of Australian imports, with an elasticity of one, but does not appear to have a significant impact on Australian exports.
This paper analyzes the efficacy of alternative financial stabilization policies in response to disturbances from various sources. A model, appropriate to the institutional structure of a developing country, is estimated. The model is subjected to shocks from the domestic real economy, domestic financial circumstances, and the external terms of trade. Alternative policy reactions are evaluated with respect to each of these shocks. A few generalizations may be drawn from the results. First, exchange rate changes are a powerful instrument of adjustment, even when the estimated price elasticities of trade are small. Second, even in a country that does not have an open financial system that is integrated with the rest of the world, monetary conditions have a large and rapid effect on the balance of payments. The appropriate policy response to any disturbance depends on the expected duration of the disturbance. The benefits of avoiding excessive early adjustment must be weighed against the costs of a probable greater and more painful, adjustment at a later stage.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper discusses actions taken by members themselves, particularly for the establishment of internal financial stability, are of primary importance for the elimination of restrictions. The IMF has sought to give its support to countries faced with the practical difficulty of establishing such policies, pointing out the importance of appropriate exchange rate policies in achieving a sound international financial position and the importance of internal stability for exchange rate policy. Many member countries have now reached a point where they are re-examining more carefully not only their need for the current level of restrictions, but also the more fundamental question of reliance upon restrictions to cope with balance of payments difficulties. In the first year of IMF consultations, although some countries were applying policies designed to produce favorable conditions for the removal of restrictions, most countries were so preoccupied with their immediate problems that any substantial withdrawal of restrictions was impracticable.