Western Hemisphere > Nicaragua

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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Nicaragua faces an acute crisis as the COVID-19 shock comes on top of a two- year recession. So far, the speed of transmission of the pandemic in Nicaragua, in terms of officially confirmed cases, has been slower than in neighboring countries, but this may understate the true spread of the disease. The pandemic is expected to produce the third year of consecutive recession and lead to large fiscal and external financing needs given the impact of voluntary distancing and regional and global spillovers. The very limited fiscal space, eroded by the ongoing recession and the limited external financing, constrains the authorities’ ability to self-finance the emergency response.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Nicaragua highlights that social unrest and its aftermath eroded confidence and caused large capital and bank deposits outflows that resulted in a prolonged output contraction. Banks cut lending, which exacerbated the downturn. Faced with sharply lower revenues and a severe tightening in available financing, including on account of sanctions, the government was forced to cut spending and adopt a procyclical tax package. The economy is projected to continue to contract in the near term as it adjusts to weaker confidence and lower external financing. The sharp contraction in credit will continue to depress investment, and the tight fiscal and external financing situation will continue to drag down medium-term growth. The key risks relate to further erosion in confidence and renewed deposit outflows. The imposition of additional sanctions by trading partners could also heighten economic stress. It is recommended to maintain a conservative fiscal stance in 2020 remains the key to maintain macroeconomic stability. Curbing expenditures on goods and services will allow increased spending on social programs, social safety nets, and public investment, which would lead to more equitable and sustainable growth.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses that structural reforms, strengthened policy frameworks and the ongoing smooth political transition have laid the foundations for sustained growth in El Salvador. The discussions focused on policies that build on these achievements and address fiscal vulnerabilities, boost long-term growth, and strengthen the governance, anticorruption and Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism frameworks. Continued US dollar appreciation led to a significant decline in inflation and widening of the current account deficit. The authorities agreed that debt would continue to drift upward in the absence of measures, and that weaker-than-expected global growth could have a negative impact on the domestic economy. The authorities emphasized their commitment to guarantee a smooth political transition by sharing information with the new administration and by inviting the Audit Office to oversee the handover process. It is recommended to improve the governance and anticorruption frameworks by increasing the fiscal transparency of the 2020 budget laws, strengthening audit and spending controls, and promptly implementing electronic invoicing.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2015 Article IV Consultation presents economic outlook and risks of Nicaragua. Over the last three years, real GDP growth has averaged 4.8 percent, one of the highest in the region, while inflation has remained anchored by the exchange rate regime. Poverty has fallen sharply, but unemployment has increased due to a decline in the manufacturing sector. The current policy mix is broadly adequate to maintain macroeconomic stability in the near term, but Nicaragua needs to fortify its policy framework. In particular, reducing tax exonerators and exemptions and improving the targeting of fiscal subsidies would strengthen the efficiency and equity of public finances and contribute to rebuilding fiscal buffers.
Gabriel Di Bella, Mr. Lawrence Norton, Mr. Joseph Ntamatungiro, Ms. Sumiko Ogawa, Issouf Samaké, and Marika Santoro
The oil price decline creates an opportunity to dismantle energy subsidies, which escalated with high oil prices. This paper assesses energy subsidies in Latin America and the Caribbean—about 1.8 percent of GDP in 2011–13 (approximately evenly split between fuel and electricity), and about 3.8 percent of GDP including negative externalities. Countries with poorer institutions subsidize more. Energy-rich countries subsidize fuel more, but low-income countries are more likely to subsidize electricity, as are Central America and the Caribbean. Energy subsidies impose fiscal costs, hurting SOEs, competitiveness, and distribution. The paper overviews country experience with subsidy reform, drawing lessons.
International Monetary Fund
This paper is an overview of Nicaragua’s performance in the year 2011. The year 2012 is expected to face a recession and a moderation in the global oil prices. The tax revenue collections will be sturdy. The poverty scale will not face any oscillation. The rigid development in the business line, sustaining the electricity sector financially, and low dependence of oil imports are the anticipated preventive measures to overcome these challenges. The Board has taken these ideas as the positive outcome of a strong rule.
International Monetary Fund
This paper is a report of Nicaragua’s performance under the 2007–11 program. The period was marked by a stern financial crisis, price shocks, and disasters, but the program maintained the macroeconomic stability. Although the program had several hurdles, its achievements were remarkable—approval of tax reforms, improvements in banks' framework, power and electricity framework, dwindled poverty rate, and strong foreign relations. Overall, the Board is in high spirits in the triumph of the program in a critical situation though it had some flaws.
International Monetary Fund
The Nicaraguan economy continued to post robust growth in the first half of 2011. The Seventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Financing Assurances Review highlights that all quantitative performance criteria for end-June 2011 were met and the structural agenda is broadly on track. The fiscal performance of the central government was stronger than envisaged. The deficit in the external current account is projected to remain large and to be financed by resilient capital flows.
International Monetary Fund
Nicaragua's economic performance in 2010 was satisfactory. Real GDP grew, supported by strong consumption and investment. Bank credit started recovering while the financial system remained liquid and profitable. Exchange-rate and monetary policy have contributed to macroeconomic stability. The authorities plan to improve public financial management and also to adopt a legal framework and remain committed to contain the macroeconomic risks from external aid flows. They also welcomed the sixth review and Financing Assurances under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement.