International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The coverage of risks has become more systematic since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC): staff reports now regularly identify major risks and provide an assessment of their likelihood and economic impact, summarized in Risk Assessment Matrices (RAM). But still limited attention is paid to the range of possible outcomes. Also, risk identification is useful only so much as to inform policy design to preemptively respond to relevant risks and/or better prepare for them. In this regard, policy recommendations in surveillance could be richer in considering various risk management approaches. To this end, progress is needed on two dimensions: • Increasing emphasis on the range of potential outcomes to improve policy design. • Encouraging more proactive policy advice on how to manage risks. Efforts should continue to leverage internal and external resources to support risk analysis and advice in surveillance.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Niger’s overall macroeconomic performance has been broadly satisfactory. After the economic slowdown in 2013 owing to the regional security situation and adverse climatic conditions, economic growth has rebounded in 2014. Inflation has been contained, in part owing to the government’s efforts to improve food security and the functioning of food markets. However, program performance has been mixed, as a combination of unexpected security and food expenditures and a shortfall in external financing have strained fiscal management. In the near term, containing the fiscal deficit through measures to improve tax policy and administration, reform customs administration, and reduce exemptions is essential to ensure sustainability.
This paper discusses Second National Poverty Reduction Strategy II (NPRS-II) (2012–2016) for Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe. A comparison of the results of the 2000 and 2010 poverty profile, based on the average income method, shows that there was progress in reducing poverty, albeit far less than expected. The ratio of the incidence of poverty decreased from 53.8 percent in 2000 to 49.6 percent in 2010, representing a reduction of 4.2 percentage points, which is far below the target set in the NPRS-I for 2010, and also shows relative improvement in the depth of poverty.
Benin’s program furthers the objectives elaborated in the previous report. It is the result of a broad participative process that engaged all levels of government, the private sector, civil society, and donor partners. Executive Directors commend the program as it provides an adequate framework for poverty reduction. The strategy addresses the critical constraints and challenges facing Benin and builds on its comparative advantages. However, it lacks the specificity required to ensure results. Improving alignment of necessary actions and activities in support of the objectives with realistically available resources will help.
Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.
Economic activity strengthened in Côte d’Ivoire in 2009, but it is expected to decelerate. Financial performance under the Extended Credit Facility-supported program was broadly satisfactory. Good progress was made in restructuring external debt. The program is in line with the agreed reform goals, but reflects the constraints imposed by the pre-election political situation. Tight expenditure management remains critical for the success of the program. Structural reforms are essential to strengthen growth. The risks to the program are high but manageable.
This Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) was developed based on a long participatory process based on an institutional mechanism involving all socioeconomic development actors in the country. The annual review of the PRSP seeks to assess the results achieved in the implementation of the poverty reduction strategy by analyzing the evolution of the performance indicators retained and the level of execution of the matrix of measures retained in the PRSP. This study is based on the reports of IMF staff's PRSP and information collected from government projects, program budget, and framework.
This paper discusses key findings of the National Poverty Reduction Strategy (NPRS) Monitoring and Implementation Report 2005 for Chad. The strategy is based on the attainment of five core objectives: good governance, robust and sustained growth, the development of human capital, improved living conditions for the most vulnerable segments of the population, and environmental protection. This report aims to provide a more comprehensive account of the measures taken and results achieved since the beginning of NPRS implementation.