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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Niger’s new government developed an ambitious reform agenda in the face of daunting challenges. The previous ECF-supported program was able to preserve macroeconomic stability and implement some key PFM reforms, notwithstanding the pandemic. However, progress on revenue mobilization was more limited, reflecting capacity constraints and a challenging environment. For the new government to achieve its development goals, it will have to overcome deep-seated social and political divisions and a deteriorating regional security situation. Enhanced reforms and the advent of oil exports over the medium-term offer hope that greater domestic resources can be marshalled to accelerate growth and poverty reduction.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Niger’s new government developed an ambitious reform agenda in the face of daunting challenges. The previous ECF-supported program was able to preserve macroeconomic stability and implement some key PFM reforms, notwithstanding the pandemic. However, progress on revenue mobilization was more limited, reflecting capacity constraints and a challenging environment. For the new government to achieve its development goals, it will have to overcome deep-seated social and political divisions and a deteriorating regional security situation. Enhanced reforms and the advent of oil exports over the medium-term offer hope that greater domestic resources can be marshalled to accelerate growth and poverty reduction.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
After almost a decade of strong growth, the WAEMU region is facing severe challenges from a triple crisis impacting the health, economic and security situations. Both fiscal and monetary policies were relaxed significantly in 2020 to contain the pandemic and support the economy. A gradual fiscal consolidation is expected to start in 2021 and bring back the aggregate fiscal deficit towards the 3 percent of GDP regional ceiling within three years. Growth is expected to recover swiftly in 2021–22 to pre-crisis levels, but the economic outlook is still uncertain.
Johannes Emmerling, Davide Furceri, Francisco Líbano Monteiro, Mr. Prakash Loungani, Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, Pietro Pizzuto, and Massimo Tavoni
COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and income distribution through 2025, which be associated with an increase in poverty of about 75 million people. Policy responses more effective than those in the past would be required to forestall these outcomes.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
After almost a decade of strong growth, the WAEMU region is facing severe challenges from a triple crisis impacting the health, economic and security situations. Both fiscal and monetary policies were relaxed significantly in 2020 to contain the pandemic and support the economy. A gradual fiscal consolidation is expected to start in 2021 and bring back the aggregate fiscal deficit towards the 3 percent of GDP regional ceiling within three years. Growth is expected to recover swiftly in 2021–22 to pre-crisis levels, but the economic outlook is still uncertain.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
With one of the world’s lowest levels of human development, Niger has enormous needs but only limited own resources to meet them. Insecurity in the Sahel, climate change, and low prices for its uranium exports are further challenges. Niger’s economy performed reasonably well before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. GDP growth exceeded 6 percent and large foreign projects were attracted, notably a pipeline for the export of crude oil. A new government will take office in April 2021.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Niger’s Requests for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility and for Rephasing of Access Under the Extended Credit Facility. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is inflicting significant damage on Niger’s economy at a time when the government is already faced with the deteriorating security situation across the Sahel region. A first local infection was reported on March 19, 2020 and a state of emergency was declared on March 27, 2020. The authorities adopted a comprehensive response plan, comprising health care measures and steps to alleviate the social and economic fallout from the crisis. The 5th program review was concluded on January 8, 2019. Performance has since been mixed. Difficulties to reliably recalibrate program parameters while the global COVID-19 crisis is still unfolding preclude the conduct of the 6th program review on the regular schedule. As a result, the authorities previously requested an extension of the program and now request rephasing the final disbursement due to the delay.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Niger’s Requests for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility and for Rephasing of Access Under the Extended Credit Facility. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is inflicting significant damage on Niger’s economy at a time when the government is already faced with the deteriorating security situation across the Sahel region. A first local infection was reported on March 19, 2020 and a state of emergency was declared on March 27, 2020. The authorities adopted a comprehensive response plan, comprising health care measures and steps to alleviate the social and economic fallout from the crisis. The 5th program review was concluded on January 8, 2019. Performance has since been mixed. Difficulties to reliably recalibrate program parameters while the global COVID-19 crisis is still unfolding preclude the conduct of the 6th program review on the regular schedule. As a result, the authorities previously requested an extension of the program and now request rephasing the final disbursement due to the delay.