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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the need and importance of fiscal integration for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). The continued success of the currency union can be solidified by greater fiscal policy integration. Against the growing intensity of external shocks, country-level fiscal policies remain as the most important policy lever. Regional fiscal policy coordination could usefully supplement national policies in dealing with adverse shocks. Such coordination can potentially create fiscal and policy space along several dimensions. Internationally, fiscal integration takes many forms, depending on the interconnectedness of member economies and their willingness to give up fiscal autonomy. The analysis shows there is scope for tangibly improving tax incentives and rebalancing them toward those that are more effective, while using higher revenues to attract investment also through better infrastructure. Regional coordination could significantly support and accelerate those processes.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents IMF’s 2019 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). ECCU’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated from 3/4 percent in 2017 to 3 3/4 percent in 2018, reflecting buoyancy in the tourism sector, sizable Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) inflows, and a recovery from the 2017 hurricanes in Anguilla and Dominica, which were supported by large public investments in reconstruction. Fiscal deficits increased in 2018–2019, but they have remained moderate. Efforts are needed to streamline, and re-balance tax incentives based on clear principles consistent with international best practices. External imbalances are sizable and significant financial sector vulnerabilities affect both banks and non-banks. Growth is projected to gradually moderate toward its long-term average of 2 1/4 percent as the cyclical momentum normalizes and CBI inflows ease. These trends would also contribute to wider fiscal deficits, ending the downward drift in public debt dynamics. The outlook is clouded by downside risks, including a possible intensification of natural disasters and financial sector weaknesses.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlight that growth in the Marshallese economy is estimated to have accelerated to about 3.5 percent in FY2017 (ending September 30) with a strong pick-up in fisheries and construction, with the latter owing to the resumption of infrastructure projects. Consumer prices started to rise again in mid-2017, with annual consumer price index inflation at 1.1 percent in 2017Q4. Growth is expected to remain robust at about 2.5 percent in FY2018 and about 1.5 percent over the medium term, underpinned by further increases in infrastructure spending. Inflation is expected to rise gradually to about 2 percent over the medium term.