International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Despite significant economic shocks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, twin natural disasters, and the war in Ukraine, Barbados has made good progress in implementing its Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan to restore fiscal and debt sustainability, rebuild reserves, and increase growth. International reserves increased to US$1.5 billion at end-2021 supported by IFI loans. This, and a successful 2018-19 public debt restructuring, helped rebuild confidence in the country’s macroeconomic framework. Economic growth is projected at 11 percent for 2022 premised on a robust recovery of tourism, which is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2024. The outlook nonetheless remains highly uncertain, and risks are elevated, including from higher global commodity prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine that are feeding into inflation. Since Barbados imports the bulk of its food and energy needs, the government has adopted temporary VAT caps on oil products to contain retail price increases (fiscal cost of 0.3 percent of GDP). While fiscal accommodation was needed to respond to the pandemic and natural disasters over the past two years, the authorities are committed to running primary surpluses from FY2022/23 onwards which need to reach 5-6 percent of GDP in three years, consistent with meeting the 60 percent of GDP debt target by FY2035/36.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of the Marshall Islands is estimated to have expanded by about 0.5 percent in FY2015 (ending September 30), as the fishery sector recovered. Following a moderate inflation of 1.1 percent in FY2014, headline inflation dropped to –2.2 percent in FY2015 amid falling oil and utility prices. The fiscal balance is estimated to have recorded a surplus of about 3 percent of GDP in FY2014–15, owing to record-high fishing license fees. Growth is expected to rise to about 1.5 percent and inflation to about 0.5 percent in FY2016, as the effects of the drought in earlier 2016 are offset by the resumption of infrastructure projects.
This paper presents findings of the Fifth Review of Djibouti’s economic performance under the extended credit facility (ECF) arrangement. The drought in Djibouti has worsened water scarcity, reduced agricultural production and cattle stock, and accelerated refugee inflows. The authorities have requested an augmentation of access under the ECF of 60 percent of quota. As a result of exogenous shocks, financing needs for 2011–12 are expected to be higher than previously projected, despite the pledges from the international community to help Djibouti address the impact of the drought.
The impact of the 2009 tsunami on tourism and on the Samoan economy is likely to be substantial. The effectiveness of monetary transmission in Samoa has improved over time; however, it is still below international standards. The adverse impact of the crisis on the functioning of the banking system may be alleviated by an improvement in the financial infrastructure. State-owned enterprises (SOE) continue to play an important role in Samoa, and the key to successful SOE reform in Samoa will be placing them on a fully commercial footing.