Western Hemisphere > Mexico

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Carlos Caceres and Rui Mano
This paper studies the potential long-term effects of three illustrative scenarios using a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model calibrated to 165 countries. The first scenario estimates effects from potential U.S. auto tariffs. The second analyzes a ‘transactional deal’ between the U.S. and China to close their bilateral deficit. The third, in the absence of such a deal, considers a potential escalation in bilateral tariffs between the two countries. Some common features emerge across all three scenarios: the overall effects on GDP tend to be relatively small albeit negative in most cases, including for the U.S. However, sectoral disruptions and positive and negative spillovers to highly exposed ‘by-stander’ economies can be large. There is also heterogeneity at the subnational level in the U.S. -- richer states tend to benefit from certain scenarios. We discuss how estimated impacts depend on the extent to which the U.S. is able to re-shore production in protected sectors. These results can usefully complement estimates obtained through macroeconomic models that are better suited to capture dynamic effects, such as those stemming from trade policy uncertainty. More generally, our results both underscore the value of adhering to the existing levels of liberalization, and highlight the risks associated with a fragmentation or even a complete breakdown of the trading system.
Mr. Alberto Behar and Benjamin D. Nelson
We present a gravity model that accounts for multilateral resistance, firm heterogeneity and country-selection into trade, while accommodating asymmetries in trade flows. A new equation for the proportion of exporting firms takes a gravity form, such that the extensive margin is also affected by multilateral resistance. We develop Taylor approximated multilateral resistance terms with which to capture the comparative static effects of changes in trade costs. For isolated bilateral changes in trade frictions, multilateral resistance effects are small for most countries. However, if all countries reduce their trade frictions, the impact of multilateral resistance is so strong that bilateral trade falls in most cases, despite the larger trade elasticities implied by firm heterogeneity. As a consequence, the world-wide trade response, though positive, is much lower.
Rafael Romeu and Mr. Nelson Camanho da Costa Neto
This study considers the role of export diversification in determining trade outcomes during the global financial crisis. The impact of export diversification (or concentration) is measured by assessing three different dimensions of specialization. First, concentration by geographic destination is considered; that is, whether the bulk of exports from a country go to many or few trading partners. Second, industry/sectoral concentration is considered; that is, whether a country’s exports are scattered across many industries and sectors, or concentrated in just a few. Third, product concentration is considered; that is, whether countries produce many products within their export sectors or just a few. The workhorse gravity trade model is adapted with trade diversification as an additional trade cost, and the model solution is empirically tested on a dataset containing over 500 thousand observations for Latin America. Industry and product concentration are found to significantly affect the resilience of Latin American countries’ trade during the global financial crisis - increasing the diversity of both export sectors and export products within sectors by one standard deviation reduces the quarterly decline in exports by approximately 4.7 percent. Diversifying exports across many different trading partners is not found to significantly affect outcomes.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
IMF research summaries on foreign direct investment (by Yuko Kinoshita) and on trade linkages and business cycles (by Julian di Giovanni and Andrei Levchenko); country study on Mexico (by Roberto Garcia-Saltos); listing of visiting scholars at the IMF during February-June 2008; listing of contents of Vol. 55, Issue No. 1 of IMF Staff Papers; listing of recent IMF Working Papers; and a listing of recent external publications by IMF staff.
Yongzheng Yang and Mr. Alvin Hilaire
Current U.S. trade policy stresses establishing free trade areas (FTAs) with partners spanning the globe. Motivations include enhancing goods and services trade; stimulating investment flows; extending standards on intellectual property rights, labor, and the environment; and addressing geopolitical concerns. Simulations of FTAs with the United States highlight the importance of trade complementarity, trade diversion, and welfare losses for nonmembers. Agriculture and textiles play a central role in determining welfare outcomes. Initial improvement in market access enjoyed by participants could be eroded progressively as global liberalization proceeds, and this preference erosion might act as a disincentive to participate in multilateral liberalization.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Improving market access for developing countries is one of the most important steps that rich countries can take in fighting global poverty, according to the chief economists of the World Bank and the IMF. Both institutions highlighted the issue during their recent Annual Meetings. Market access was the theme of a joint report and press conference, and a seminar.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper describes development of the agriculture sector in Northwest Mexico. The paper highlights that owing to the projects in the river valleys of the northwest and others throughout the country, Mexico grows enough to feed itself and to export in substantial quantity. A third of the crops are produced on the 13 percent of cultivable area now under irrigation. The engineers of Hydraulic Resources are proud of their achievements; they have the visual evidence and the statistics to prove the importance of their contribution to Mexico.