Asia and Pacific > Mongolia

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Hans Weisfeld, Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho, Mr. Fabio Comelli, Rahul Giri, Klaus-Peter Hellwig, Chengyu Huang, Fei Liu, Mrs. Sandra V Lizarazo Ruiz, Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, and Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss routes to broadening this focus by adding several macroeconomic and macrofinancial vulnerability concepts. The associated early warning systems draw on advances in predictive modeling.
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
On April 27, 2020, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the IMF’s administrative and capital budgets for financial year (FY) 2021, beginning May 1, 2020, and took note of indicative budgets for FY 2022–23.
Mr. Anil Ari, Sophia Chen, and Mr. Lev Ratnovski
This paper presents a new dataset on the dynamics of non-performing loans (NPLs) during 88 banking crises since 1990. The data show similarities across crises during NPL build-ups but less so during NPL resolutions. We find a close relationship between NPL problems—elevated and unresolved NPLs—and the severity of post-crisis recessions. A machine learning approach identifies a set of pre-crisis predictors of NPL problems related to weak macroeconomic, institutional, corporate, and banking sector conditions. Our findings suggest that reducing pre-crisis vulnerabilities and promptly addressing NPL problems during a crisis are important for post-crisis output recovery.
International Monetary Fund
Access to Fund financial resources provides a financial safety net to help countries manage adverse shocks, acting as a potential supplement to foreign reserves when there is a balance of payments need. Such support is especially important to developing countries with limited capacity to borrow in domestic or foreign markets. This paper proposes a set of measures that would expand access to Fund resources for developing countries, as one of the initiatives the Fund is undertaking as part of the wider effort of the international community to support countries in pursuing the post- 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
International Monetary Fund
The Mongolian financial system is dominated by commercial banks. The nonbank financial sector, including insurance and the stock market, is small. The current level of dollarization exposes Mongolia’s financial system to risk. The authorities are in the process of establishing the Development Bank of Mongolia as a state-owned limited liability company. They should carefully consider the options for financing the Development Bank and their budget and other implications. Aggregate financial soundness indicators for the banking system show a partial recovery from the crisis.
International Monetary Fund
Despite the negative impact of the severe winter on agriculture, other indicators are pointing to a strong recovery. Exports are growing rapidly, fueled by the rebound in copper prices and a rapid growth in coal exports. Rephasing of purchases by combining the fifth and sixth reviews is requested owing to the delay in completing the fifth review, and earlier-than-planned Board discussion of the sixth review. The sixth review is the final review. The fiscal responsibility law will help secure a lasting fiscal discipline.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Mongolia. All end-December performance criteria were met, and the indicative limit on the fiscal deficit was met with a comfortable margin. Inflation, after falling rapidly into negative territory for the past few months, has swung upward and could reach 8 percent. The flexible exchange rate regime continues to work well, and the central bank has intervened sparingly in recent months. The key macromanagement priorities in the period ahead will be to contain inflation and maintain fiscal discipline.
International Monetary Fund
Like most transition economies, Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Mongolia suffered severe banking crises, which had to be resolved before growth could resume. The macroeconomic and institutional failings that led to these crises are described, and parallels are drawn with the causes of banking crises in industrial and developing countries. Resolving the crises proved technically and politically difficult, and setbacks occurred. Successful resolution required the implementation of a comprehensive and decisive strategy, involving thorough-going bank restructuring, heavy fiscal costs, and institutional and legal reforms.