Asia and Pacific > Mongolia

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Hans Weisfeld, Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho, Mr. Fabio Comelli, Rahul Giri, Klaus-Peter Hellwig, Chengyu Huang, Fei Liu, Mrs. Sandra V Lizarazo Ruiz, Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, and Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss routes to broadening this focus by adding several macroeconomic and macrofinancial vulnerability concepts. The associated early warning systems draw on advances in predictive modeling.
Ms. Stefania Fabrizio
As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.
Julia Bersch, Mr. Steven A Barnett, and Mr. Yasuhisa Ojima
Inflation in Mongolia resembles a roller coaster ride with sharp rises and steep drops. Understanding why is critical for formulating and assessing monetary policy. Food prices are found to be a key driver of inflation, and, not surprising given Mongolia’s geography, are determined primarily by local supply conditions, highly seasonal, and subject to large but short-lived shocks (usually weather related). Nonetheless, demand factors are also found to be significant in explaining price movements and empirical evidence suggests that a 10 percent increase in government wages, for example, would push up underlying inflation by 1 percentage point. So, while inflation will remain volatile due to agricultural shocks, there is space for macroeconomic stabilization policy to help reduce inflation volatility.
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents the second postprogram monitoring discussions on Mongolia’s economic developments. The Mongolian economy is undergoing a rapid expansion underpinned by strong commodity prices. Macroeconomic policies have been too expansionary, and the economy is overheating. A steady erosion of fiscal discipline, set against a backdrop of heightened global economic risks, has raised the risk of macroeconomic instability. There is an urgent need to reorient policies to contain overheating and strengthen the economy’s ability to endure deterioration in the global environment.
Julia Bersch and Tara M. Sinclair
This paper compares the output gap estimates for Mongolia based on a number of different methods. Special attention is paid to the substantial role of mining in the Mongolian economy. We find that a Blanchard and Quah-type joint model of output and inflation provides a more robust estimate of the output gap for Mongolia than the traditional statistical decompositions.
International Monetary Fund
The economy of Mongolia was extremely affected during the crisis, owing to its dependency on mineral exports and history of procyclical macroeconomic policies. In this study, the ex post evaluation (EPE) of Mongolia’s experience is reviewed. The EPE focused on program design and implementation. Progress toward strengthening financial oversight and implementation of a financial sector assessment program are discussed. Deposit insurance was established to replace the blanket deposit guarantee. Structural reforms have improved. Finally, the authorities' intention to remain engaged with the IMF under post-program monitoring is outlined.
International Monetary Fund
Despite the negative impact of the severe winter on agriculture, other indicators are pointing to a strong recovery. Exports are growing rapidly, fueled by the rebound in copper prices and a rapid growth in coal exports. Rephasing of purchases by combining the fifth and sixth reviews is requested owing to the delay in completing the fifth review, and earlier-than-planned Board discussion of the sixth review. The sixth review is the final review. The fiscal responsibility law will help secure a lasting fiscal discipline.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Mongolia. All end-December performance criteria were met, and the indicative limit on the fiscal deficit was met with a comfortable margin. Inflation, after falling rapidly into negative territory for the past few months, has swung upward and could reach 8 percent. The flexible exchange rate regime continues to work well, and the central bank has intervened sparingly in recent months. The key macromanagement priorities in the period ahead will be to contain inflation and maintain fiscal discipline.
International Monetary Fund
The staff report for the 2010 Article IV Consultation underlies that in recent years, Mongolia’s economy has performed quite well. The inflation pressures reflected a relaxation of monetary and fiscal policies and large increases in prices for food and fuel. The debt service burden and international reserves are expected to remain at comfortable levels. Executive Directors welcomed the authorities’ purpose to review plans for the establishment of a development bank, taking account of the know-how elsewhere so as to avoid creating unfair competition in the financial sector.