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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
With the economy already slowing due to the COVID-19 pandemic in FY2019/20, a more intense second wave has hit Myanmar hard, inflicting large economic and social costs and straining the frail healthcare system. The needed strict lockdown measures have hurt manufacturing and spending further, while weak external demand has weighed on exports and tourism, though the kyat continued to appreciate as remittances remained robust. In FY2020/21, growth will decelerate further to 0.5 percent and open up external and fiscal financing gaps of about US$1 billion. The IMF’s RCF/RFI disbursement of 50 percent of quota (SDR 258.4 million) in June helped support the authorities’ policy response for FY2019/20, particularly for social and health spending, kept monetary financing within target, and catalyzed financing from external partners, including through the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI).
Ms. Elena Loukoianova, Yongzheng Yang, Mr. Si Guo, Ms. Leni Hunter, Mrs. Sarwat Jahan, Mr. Fazurin Jamaludin, Umang Rawat, Johanna Schauer, Piyaporn Sodsriwiboon, and Mr. Yiqun Wu
Asia has made significant progress in financial inclusion, but both its across-country and intra-country disparities are among the highest in the world. The gaps between the rich and the poor, rural and urban populations, and men and women remain deep. Income is the main determinant of the level of financial inclusion; but other factors, such as geography, financial sector structure, and policies, also play important roles. While some countries in the Asia-Pacific region are leaders in fintech, on average the region lags behind others in several important areas such as online (internet) purchases, electronic payments, mobile money, and mobile government transfers. This Departmental Paper aims to take stock of the development and current state of financial inclusion and shed light on policies to advance financial inclusion in the region. The research focuses on the impact of financial inclusion on economic growth, poverty reduction, and inequality, linkages between financial inclusion and macroeconomic policies, as well as structural policies that are important for improving financial inclusion. Given the increasing importance of financial technologies (fintech), the paper also provides a snapshot of the fintech landscape in the Asia-Pacific.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper focuses on current issues on the transmission process of monetary policy. The main process by which monetary forces influence the real economy in Keynesian income/expenditure models is through the cost-of-capital channel. In addition to the cost-of-capital channel, post-Keynesians also recognized two other channels, namely, the wealth effect on consumption expenditure and the credit rationing linkage between the financial and real sectors. One of the most significant post-Keynesian developments has been the emphasis on net private wealth as well as income as a factor influencing real flows of expenditures. The flow of services of outside money is the saving of time in barter transactions, which stems from the role of money as a medium of exchange. The saving of time may be used either for leisure or to produce capital goods. A fundamental and basic development in monetary theory subsequent to Keynes' liquidity preference theory has been the capital theoretic formulation of the demand for money.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper discusses performance of Canadian markets for US dollars. US dollar deposits transferred by US residents from US banks to Canadian banks or other foreign banks are treated by the US Department of Commerce for balance of payments purposes as an item that contributes to the balance of payments deficit, that is, as a short-term capital outflow financed by an increase in US liquid liabilities to foreigners. In Canadian banks, deposits denominated in foreign currencies have for many years been increasing much more rapidly than those denominated in Canadian dollars. The foreign currency assets of the Canadian banks are the mirror image of their foreign currency deposits. In view of the balanced relationship of foreign currency assets and liabilities, and of current banking practices, it is virtually impossible to visualize sales by the chartered banks of dollar assets for other currencies without a parallel adjustment in their deposit liabilities.