Ms. Mitali Das, Ms. Gita Gopinath, and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
We show that “preemptive” capital flow management measures (CFM) can reduce emerging markets and developing countries’ (EMDE) external finance premia during risk-off shocks, especially for vulnerable countries. Using a panel dataset of 56 EMDEs during 1996–2020 at monthly frequency, we document that countries with preemptive policies in place during the five year window before risk-off shocks experienced relatively lower external finance premia and exchange rate volatility during the shock compared to countries which did not have such preemptive policies in place. We use the episodes of Taper Tantrum and COVID-19 as risk-off shocks. Our identification relies on a difference-in-differences methodology with country fixed effects where preemptive policies are ex-ante by construction and cannot be put in place as a response to the shock ex-post. We control the effects of other policies, such as monetary policy, foreign exchange interventions (FXI), easing of inflow CFMs and tightening of outflow CFMs that are used in response to the risk-off shocks. By reducing the impact of risk-off shocks on countries’ funding costs and exchange rate volatility, preemptive policies enable countries’ continued access to international capital markets during troubled times.
This Selected Issues Paper assesses Macedonia’s public debt markets and presents recommendations for their further development. Macedonia’s domestic debt market is in the early stages of development and is small by regional standards. The paper also analyzes the main causes of euroization in Macedonia. It discusses the nature of monetary policy in Macedonia where despite an exchange rate peg owing to imperfect capital mobility, there exists some degree of autonomy in the conduct of monetary policy in the short term.
In this paper we study the dynamics of inflation in Macedonia, provide three forecasting tools and draw some policy conclusions from the quantitative results. We explore three forecasting methods for inflation. We use a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) for short-term, monthly forecasting. We also develop two quarterly models: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for a more structural model of inflation. The NKPC shows a significant effect of output gap and inflation expectations on current inflation, confirming that the expectations channel of monetary transmission mechanism is strong. In terms of forecast-error variance, we show that all three models do very well in one-period ahead forecasting.
After several years of transition, major weaknesses in the banking and enterprise sectors remain the root cause of low growth. A large share of nonperforming assets in the portfolio of large banks, stemming from losses in the enterprise sector, has been a key impediment to financial sector development. The banking system has been crippled with low levels of intermediation, high cost of capital, severe lack of financial discipline, and poor allocation of credit. Reforms aimed at strengthening lending practices, encouraging foreign bank participation, improving bank supervision and, above all, a consolidation process that breaks away from the past are helping pave the path to economic recovery.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
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