Africa > Madagascar, Republic of

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Johannes Emmerling, Davide Furceri, Francisco Líbano Monteiro, Mr. Prakash Loungani, Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, Pietro Pizzuto, and Massimo Tavoni
COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and income distribution through 2025, which be associated with an increase in poverty of about 75 million people. Policy responses more effective than those in the past would be required to forestall these outcomes.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Economic Development Document describes the strategy adopted by the government of Madagascar to reverse the trend of modest economic performance, deteriorating social conditions, and persistent poverty observed in recent years. This strategy addresses the underlying causes of poverty. The primary aim of the fiscal policy is to increase revenue and rationalize budget expenditure to provide ample margins to finance priority spending, specifically social and infrastructure spending. The priorities are to expand the tax base and continuing reform of tax and customs administration, and to eliminate the causes of inefficient public expenditure. The monetary policy is given the role of regulating domestic liquidity to normalize trends in economic activities and achieve the inflation targets of less than 10.0 percent.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents a study on poverty in Madagascar. Madagascar is a country with general, widespread, and increasing poverty. Most of the population is extremely poor and struggling to pay for food. Madagascar has the potential to grow rapidly. It is endowed with abundant natural resources, a unique wildlife, and a young, vibrant, and rapidly growing population. Taking full advantage of the young population will require higher investment in education and healthcare. Economic inequality appears to have declined and the poorest have in fact increased their consumption. Thus, while it is true that more people are poor today than in 2001, on average those who are deepest into poverty appear to be economically better off today than in 2001. Poverty is primarily a rural challenge. An overriding majority of the population lives in rural areas and rural poverty rates are almost double those of urban areas.
International Monetary Fund
This Joint Staff Advisory Note provides feedback from the World Bank and IMF staff on the first and second progress reports on the Madagascar Action Plan (MAP)—the poverty reduction and growth strategy for 2007–12. Progress on governance has been reported with improvements in the functioning of the national anticorruption agency (BIANCO), the establishment of a financial intelligence unit, and improved national security indicators. To further improve transparency, the government will need to make an effort to secure property rights through the judicial system or alternative conflict-resolution mechanisms.
Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney and Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
This article investigates how financial development helps to reduce poverty directly through the McKinnon conduit effect and indirectly through economic growth. The results obtained with data for a sample of developing countries from 1966 through 2000 suggest that the poor benefit from the ability of the banking system to facilitate transactions and provide savings opportunities but to some extent fail to reap the benefit from greater availability of credit. Moreover, financial development is accompanied by financial instability, which is detrimental to the poor. Nevertheless, the benefits of financial development for the poor outweigh the cost.
International Monetary Fund
There has been progress in strengthening public financial management; however, improving budget execution and strengthening public finances is required. The tax and custom administration reforms will help bolster private sector-led growth and meet the ambitious revenue target to finance priority expenditure. Monetary and exchange rate policy is required to reduce inflation while preventing an overshooting of the exchange rate. Further progress is needed to foster financial sector development. A more ambitious rehabilitation plan for the electricity sector needs to be designed and implemented with urgency.
International Monetary Fund
The Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Republic of Madagascar’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) is analyzed. The government of Madagascar has prepared its second growth and poverty reduction strategy called the Madagascar Action Plan (MAP), a bold development plan for 2007–12. The MAP builds on the first PRSP prepared in 2003 and is underpinned by a broad consultative process. It outlines the commitments, strategies, and actions that are expected to ignite rapid growth and lead to the reduction of poverty in line with the government’s national vision document.
International Monetary Fund
The Annual Progress Report (APR) candidly indicates that the macroeconomic objectives for 2005, notably pertaining to growth and revenue objectives, could not be achieved. Looking forward, the preparation of the Madagascar Action Plan (MAP) will provide a useful opportunity to revisit and improve the country’s poverty reduction strategy in light of recent developments and experience. Reasonable progress on the public sector governance agenda was triggered by substantial investments in training and capacity building, in particular in the areas of public financial management, planning, change management, and monitoring and evaluation.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement for Madagascar. The paper focuses on performance during the programs supported by the 1989 and 1996 Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility programs, and the 2001 Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility. Despite nearly continuous involvement by the IMF, other international financial institutions, and bilateral donors, economic progress has been slow. Only the most recent years have witnessed inroads into poverty reduction of some significance. However, the country’s growth base remains narrow, and its institutional framework and governance weak.
International Monetary Fund
This paper examines Madagascar’s Sixth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). Madagascar’s performance under the program in 2004 has been broadly satisfactory, particularly in light of the difficult economic environment that prevailed during the first half of the year. All quantitative performance criteria at end-September and the structural performance criterion at end-December have been met. Further steps are needed to strengthen monetary policy implementation. Implementation of public enterprise reform, which has been uneven, also needs to be accelerated.