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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The main objective of this technical note is to assess bank’s balance sheet and profits, solvency stress test, and liquidity stress test. The financial system in Montenegro is dominated by the banking sector. By the end of 2014, 12 licensed banks operated in Montenegro, with total banking sector assets amounting to 3.1 billion euros or 88 percent of total financial system assets and 92 percent of GDP. The stress-testing exercise is aimed to test the banking system’s resilience to extreme but plausible shocks. The stress test is a tool to assess the vulnerabilities of the banking system that may expose it to risks.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper focuses on the important issues of Montenegro economy which are as follows: microfinancial setting, financial system resilience, financial oversight, resolution of nonperforming loans, and financial safety nets. Montenegro is still dealing with the aftermath of the collapse of the lending boom in 2008. Economic momentum has accelerated in 2015, but there are numerous downside risks. System-wide solvency and liquidity indicators appear broadly sound, but significant pockets of vulnerabilities exist among domestically owned banks. Decisive action to deal with weak banks is critical for preserving financial stability. While the legal, regulatory, and supervisory frameworks for banking and insurance sector have markedly improved since 2006 Financial Sector Assessment Program, further progress is required.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This report highlights the recent economic developments and outlook and risks related to the Montenegro’s economy. It also discusses policies which need to be implemented to boost growth. Montenegro’s economy has rebounded in the past year, and strong growth looks set to continue in 2016, at slightly more than 4 percent. Although the government’s growth strategy can bring substantial gains, it also carries sizable risks, notably to the public finances. The authorities have taken various policy measures to (1) contain fiscal sustainability risks, (2) sustainably revitalize credit conditions, (3) safeguard financial sector stability, and (4) boost competitiveness and economic flexibility.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

This report analyses the main economic developments and achievements in the Western Balkan countries, and lays out the key macroeconomic policy challenges for the future.

Greetje Everaert, Ms. Natasha X Che, Ms. Nan Geng, Bertrand Gruss, Gregorio Impavido, Miss Yinqiu Lu, Christian Saborowski, Mr. Jerome Vandenbussche, and Mr. Li Zeng
Countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) experienced a credit boom-bust cycle in the last decade. This paper analyzes the roles of demand and supply factors in explaining this credit cycle. Our analysis first focuses on a large sample of bank-level data on credit growth for the entire CESEE region. We complement this analysis by five case studies (Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Poland, and Romania). Our results of the panel data analysis indicate that supply factors, on average and relative to demand factors, gained in importance in explaining credit growth in the post-crisis period. In the case studies, we find a similar result for Lithuania and Montenegro, but the other three case studies point to the fact that country experiences were heterogeneous.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro’s recovery from the collapse of the lending boom in 2008 has been slowed by the debt overhang that remains in the private sector. Output contracted in 2012 because of unusually severe winter weather early in the year, as well as a sharp decline in aluminum production as the financial position of the troubled aluminum company (KAP) continued to worsen. Activity picked up in early 2013 as more favorable weather conditions resulted in a sharp increase in hydro-based electricity production. A sustained, multi-year fiscal consolidation effort is needed to reduce the public debt burden to an appropriately low level in the medium term.
International Monetary Fund
Since its independence in 2006, Montenegro has experienced an economic and financial roller coaster ride. The baseline is predicated on continued improvements in cost competitiveness and productivity-raising foreign direct investment (FDI). Avoiding a relapse into recession will thus require strengthening the health of the banking system and removing impediments to restructuring the economy. Montenegro’s attractiveness to investors will depend on reducing macroeconomic and structural vulnerabilities. The business environment needs to be further improved. Redressing solvency issues and improving liquidity were jointly seen as priority tasks.
International Monetary Fund
This 2010 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro has been hard hit by the global financial crisis. Contagion and concerns about the robustness of the banking system have triggered large deposit withdrawals and a credit crunch. Moreover, the unwinding of the real estate boom has generated strong negative wealth effects that depressed demand. The authorities have taken wide-ranging measures to stabilize the financial system and rekindle lending activity. Foreign parents have also stepped in with substantial liquidity infusion.
International Monetary Fund
This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that Montenegro has made significant progress in overhauling its economy. The authorities have taken several welcomed steps to help strengthen financial sector stability. Executive Directors have welcomed the structural reforms implemented over the past few years and financial integration that have helped Montenegro attract substantial foreign direct investment and generate rapid growth with moderate inflation. Directors have also supported the authorities’ actions to bolster financial system stability and reduce vulnerabilities by intensifying supervisory oversight, tightening prudential regulations, and lifting bank capitalization requirements.
International Monetary Fund
The economic expansion in Montenegro is proceeding at full strength. The economy is overheating. Rapid credit growth is overstretching banks, and has contributed to ballooning asset prices. Eroding competitiveness is a concern. Management of the boom falls on fiscal policy. Tax cuts have been procyclical and potentially destabilizing. Fiscal risks need to be contained. The main focus of credit policy should be to strengthen banking sector supervision. Completing the transition to a market economy should be kept at the top of the policy agenda.