In recent years, we have observed an increase in low-income countries’ (LICs) access to international capital markets, especially after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper investigates what factors—country-specific macroeconomic fundamentals and/or external variables—have contributed to the surge in external bond issuance by these LICs, which we refer to in our paper as ‘frontier economies’. Using data on public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external bond issuance, outstanding PPG bond stock, as well as sovereign spreads, we employ panel data analysis to examine factors related to the increase in issuance by these economies as well as the reduction in their spreads over time. Our empirical study shows that both country-specific fundamentals (such as public debt, current account balance, level of reserves, quality of institutions) and external variables (such as US growth and the VIX index) play a role in explaining the increased amount of issuance and the decline in spreads of frontier economies’ sovereign bonds. The impact of some of these variables on issuance appears to reflect a country’s need to issue bonds for external financing (‘the supply side’ of bond issuance), while others appear to correlate more through their impact on investors’ appetite for a country’s debt (‘the demand side’). In addition, the impact of country-specific variables can also be affected by external factors such as global risk appetite. Our analysis of key factors that have contributed to increased market access for frontier economies over the past decade provides important information to gauge the prospects for their continued market access, and for other LICs to join this group by tapping international markets for the first time.
In response to a request from the European Department, a Public-Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS) technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted in Chisinau during October 2–8, 2019. The mission funded by the Data for Decisions (D4D) multi-donor trust fund and followed up on a D4D Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS) workshop held in Vienna, Austria during July 2019, where participants from Moldova identified data gaps with current compilation of debt statistics. The mission primarily worked with the Ministry of Finance (MOF) Public Debt Department (PDD), but also had discussions with the Budget and Treasury Department. Outside the MOF, the mission had meetings with the Public Property Agency (PPA), the Municipality of Chisinau and the National Bank of Moldova (NBM). Finally, the mission also held a joint meeting with representatives of a separate IMF TA Mission on sectoral accounts with Treasury and attended the concluding meeting of that mission with the NBM.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the findings and recommendations made by the IMF mission to improve public sector debt statistics (PSDS) in Moldova. The IMF mission found that Moldova continues to improve their recording, compilation and dissemination of PSDS reflecting potential fiscal risks, but faces some statistical challenges going forward. The adoption of recommendations, along with comprehensive monitoring of on-lending and contingent liabilities, would increase the Moldovan policymaker’s ability to forecast future fiscal risk and actively monitor the gross debt of all public-sector institutions in line with the new Fiscal Risk Statement. This would translate into a sound Public Finance Management structure and allow for more accurate macroeconomic surveillance and analysis.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Moldova has a modern interbank payment system that lies at the heart of its financial markets. The Automated Interbank Payment System (AIPS) settled on average MDL 2 billion (US$ 214 million) per day, or 2.7 percent of GDP in 2013. It has real-time gross settlement features that help reduce systemic risks, settles large-value and time-critical payments, and is interdependent with two securities settlement systems. This includes the central bank’s Book-Entry System (BES) that handles government securities and central bank certificate settlements, and the National Securities Depository (NSD) that settles private sector securities trades. It largely met international standards in the FSAP Update of 2008. A self-assessment of the BES against the CPSS-IOSCO Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures (PFMIs) has been completed in December 2013 by the NBM. The preliminary results suggest full observance with 11 principles and broad observance with three principles (Principle 1 on Legal Basis, Principle 22 on Communication Procedures and Standards). They are currently under the peer review process by the National Commission for Financial Markets (NCFM).
Articles in the March 2015 Research Bulletin focus on the oil market, energy subsidies, and output. The Research Summary on "An Exploration in Deep Corners of the Oil Market," authored by Rabah Arezki, Douglas Laxton, Armen Nurekyan, and Hou Wang, examines fluctuations in oil prices. "The State Budget May Afford It All," by Christian Ebeke and Constant Lonkeng Ngbouana, reviews energy subsidies and their fiscal, distributional, and environmental costs. In the “Q&A” column Pau Rabanal takes a look at “Seven Questions on Potential Output.” The Bulletin includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, recommended readings from IMF Publications, and a call for papers for the next Annual Research Conference. A link with information and free access to IMF Economic Review is also included.
This paper explains purposes and functions of various articles of the IMF. The original members of the IMF are those of the countries represented at the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference whose governments accept membership before December 31, 1945. The articles describe that the Board of Governors at intervals of not more than five years are expected to conduct a general review, and if it deems it appropriate propose an adjustment, of the quotas of the members. Recognizing that the essential purpose of the international monetary system is to provide a framework that facilitates the exchange of goods, services, and capital among countries, and that sustains sound economic growth, and that a principal objective is the continuing development of the orderly underlying conditions that are necessary for financial and economic stability, each member undertakes to collaborate with the IMF and other members to assure orderly exchange arrangements and to promote a stable system of exchange rates.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the entrenched inflation in Russia. It presents a possible explanation for the entrenched inflation stating that the Russian economy is facing increasing supply-side constraints in goods and labor markets. The paper focuses on measuring the performance of fiscal policy in Russia. It examines capital structures and vulnerabilities for the corporate sector in Russia. Recent developments and remaining challenges for the Russian banking sector are analyzed. Terms of trade and economic growth in the Former Soviet Union are also discussed.
On occasions, by running arrears, governments have unilaterally borrowed from domestic agents. These agents ended up with implicit claims on the government for which they had no title and that would be honored, at best, on an unspecified future date and for an uncertain value. Having untitled assets limits creditors’ financial management capacity, because they cannot trade or enforce these claims. This paper presents several options for addressing the arrears problem. It recommends that the government recognize its implicit financial liabilities, set a timetable for their clearance, and issue market-negotiable titles (securitize). Several country experiences with securitization operations are documented.
This paper describes economic developments in the Republic of Moldova during the 1990s. In February 1993, the Executive Board of the IMF approved a purchase of resources equivalent to SDR 13.5 million under the compensatory and contingency financing facility to cover the costs associated with the need to import grains because of the drought and subsequent crop failure in Moldova. A World Bank Emergency Drought Recovery Project in an amount equivalent to US$26 million was also approved in February 1993.