Mr. Martin D. Cerisola, Mr. Chadi Abdallah, Mr. Victor A Davies, and Mr. Mark Fischer
This note is a reference guide to the econometric work on fiscal multipliers for MENAP countries. Spending and tax multipliers are estimated from conventional VAR models and identified using a sign-restrictions approach. Estimates show that fiscal multipliers tend to be small, except for those associated with government investment spending, which generally exceed unity. For the average MENAP country, fiscal multipliers for current spending, government consumption and government investment spending are 0.5, 0.8, and 1.1,respectively, while the tax revenues multiplier is estimated at around –0.4. There is also significant variation in the size of these multipliers across countries, consistent with differences in economic fundamentals, such as openness to trade and the flexibility of the exchange rate. The estimated multipliers are generally consistent with theoretical priors, and are in line with the evidence from the literature for other economies and categories of spending and taxes.
This 2005 Article IV Consultation underlies that in 2004, Libya’s macroeconomic performance was satisfactory, owing mainly to higher oil prices and increased oil output. Real GDP grew 4½ percent while consumer prices declined. The favorable developments in the oil market contributed to a significant improvement in the external current account surplus, which reached some 24 percent of GDP. In 2005, macroeconomic performance remained relatively strong. Real GDP growth was about 3½ percent, and inflation low. In contrast to previous years, economic growth is estimated to have been generated mainly in the non-oil economy.
This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Libyan economy remains largely state controlled and heavily dependent on the oil sector. Since the lifting of the Libya-specific trade sanctions of the United Nation and United States in September 2003 and September 2004, respectively, the pace of economic and structural reforms has picked up somewhat, with the implementation of measures aimed at enhancing the role of the private sector in the economy. However, these reforms continue to be implemented in an ad hoc and nontransparent manner.
This Selected Issues paper attempts to uncover the long-term determinants of the demand for foreign exchange reserves in Tunisia. It assesses the adequacy of current and projected reserves holdings in light of the country’s policy choices. The paper describes recent trends in foreign exchange reserves in Tunisia. Econometric evidence on the determinants of the demand for foreign reserves in Tunisia is presented. The results are used to forecast the desired level of reserves given Tunisia’s medium-term macroeconomic framework and to draw policy implications.
The Libyan economy remains saddled with extensive controls, restrictions, and subsidies that continue to distort prices and resource allocations, hinder efficiency and competitiveness, and impede the performance of the economy. Executive Directors commended the liberalizing of the economy, and stressed the need to improve macroeconomic management, remove trade restrictions, accelerate structural reforms, and tighten monetary and fiscal policies. They supported the authorities' request for technical assistance from the IMF in the areas of statistics, financial programming, development of money markets, and financial instruments, and tax reform.
This paper discusses several IMF’s selected decisions of the Executive Board and selected documents. The procedures set forth in Section IV of SM/77/277 are approved, and members shall be guided by the considerations in Section IV with respect to the prompt notification of any changes in their exchange arrangements. Once the procedures for initial notification have been clarified, only a few issues remain to be dealt with in respect of subsequent notifications. One of these is the question of what would constitute a change in an exchange arrangement requiring notification. Upon receipt of notification of a change in exchange arrangements from a member the IMF staff would circulate it to the Executive Board. If the Board wishes, it could continue to be the normal practice that whenever a change is significant, its communication to the Board would be followed promptly by a staff paper describing the context of the change in policy and giving the IMF staff's assessment.
The Mundell-Fleming model of international macroeconomic originated in the early 1960s and has been extended during the ensuing quarter century. This paper develops an exposition that integrates the various facets of the model and incorporates its extensions into a unified analytical framework. Attention is given to (1) the distinction between short-run and long-run effects of policies, (2) the implications of debt and tax financing of government expenditures, and (3) the role of the exchange rate regime in this regard. By identifying the key mechanisms operating in the model, the exposition clarifies the model’s limitations and facilitates comparison with other, more current approaches.
This paper presents Selected Decisions and Selected Documents’ Eigth Issue of the IMF. This volume is the Eighth Issue of Selected Decisions of the IMF and Selected Documents. It contains the decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Directors and the Board of Governors of the IMF to which frequent reference is made in the current activities of the IMF. In addition, the volume contains certain documents relating to the IMF and the United Nations. This issue contains most of the decisions that were published in earlier issues, however not decisions that have ceased to be effective or that are referred to less frequently than in the past. With few exceptions, the decisions in this volume are general in application and relate to obligations, policies, or procedures under the Articles of Agreement. Subject to these few exceptions, decisions that affect individual members are not included. Decisions of the IMF that are included in the By-Laws and the Rules and Regulations are general in application but are not reproduced in this volume.
This volume is the Seventh Issue of Selected Decisions of the IMF and Selected Documents. It contains the decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Directors and the Board of Governors of the IMF to which frequent reference is made in the current activities of the Fund. In addition, the volume contains certain documents relating to the IMF and the United Nations. This issue contains most of the decisions that were published in earlier issues but not decisions that have ceased to be effective or that are referred to less frequently than in the past. A substantial part of this volume is devoted to decisions taken by the IMF since the last issue. With few exceptions, the decisions in this volume are general in application and relate to obligations, policies, or procedures under the Articles of Agreement. Subject to the few exceptions referred to, decisions that affect individual members are not included. Decisions of the Fund that are included in the By-Laws and the Rules and Regulations are general in application but are not reproduced in this volume.