The Gambia is consolidating its democratic change by successfully organizing peaceful and transparent elections. President Barrow was reelected for a second five-year term in December 2021; his party and its alliance hold half of the parliamentary seats following an election in April 2022. A fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic hit the country in late 2021-early 2022. New infection cases have dropped to almost nil recently. The vaccination rate currently stands at about 20 percent of the adult population. The Gambia is already facing significant repercussions of the war in Ukraine.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Grenada’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. IMF financing support provides resources to the countries’ authorities for essential health-related expenditures and income support to ease the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 on the population. The countries’ governments have responded to the pandemic by swiftly implementing containment measures, allocating scarce budgetary resources to critical health care spending, and introducing income support to the most affected sectors and households. Protection of the financial system will help cushion the economic impact of the pandemic. Measures have also been taken by the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank to facilitate the provision of credit and safeguard financial stability. Going forward, and once the current crisis dissipates, the authorities intend to push ahead with a comprehensive Disaster Resilience Strategy aimed at building resilience to natural disasters. They are also committed to further strengthening financial sector oversight to safeguard macro-financial stability.
Mr. Martin D. Cerisola, Mr. Chadi Abdallah, Mr. Victor A Davies, and Mr. Mark Fischer
This note is a reference guide to the econometric work on fiscal multipliers for MENAP countries. Spending and tax multipliers are estimated from conventional VAR models and identified using a sign-restrictions approach. Estimates show that fiscal multipliers tend to be small, except for those associated with government investment spending, which generally exceed unity. For the average MENAP country, fiscal multipliers for current spending, government consumption and government investment spending are 0.5, 0.8, and 1.1,respectively, while the tax revenues multiplier is estimated at around –0.4. There is also significant variation in the size of these multipliers across countries, consistent with differences in economic fundamentals, such as openness to trade and the flexibility of the exchange rate. The estimated multipliers are generally consistent with theoretical priors, and are in line with the evidence from the literature for other economies and categories of spending and taxes.
This paper focuses on Central African Republic’s (CAR) Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Cancellation of the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. The transitional government in CAR is facing daunting challenges. Improved security, donor support, and normalizing salary payments will be crucial to start a recovery in 2014. The macroeconomic outlook is subject to uncertainty and risks. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for assistance under the RCF in view of their currently limited capacity to implement policies of an upper credit tranche-quality economic program, the large and urgent balance-of-payments needs, and the catalytic effect of IMF support on other external assistance.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The political and security environment remains uncertain in Libya. Libya faces the challenges of stabilizing the economy and responding to the aspirations of the revolution. The near-term outlook is favorable, but there are significant risks. The overarching policy objective should be to foster inclusive growth. Banks are not intermediating, and resources should be devoted to its effective implementation. Expenditure is skewed toward wages and subsidies. Libya needs to adopt a comprehensive reform strategy. The government agrees with the assessment of the economic outlook and associated risks and policy options as outlined by Executive Directors.
Carlos Caceres, Mr. Serhan Cevik, Mr. Marco Committeri, and Mr. Borja Gracia
Libya is highly dependent on exhaustible and volatile hydrocarbon resources, which constitute the bulk of government revenues. Although resource wealth provides the means to promote socio-economic development, procyclical fiscal policies threaten macroeconomic stability as well as fiscal sustainability and intergenerational equity. In three parts, this paper provides an assessment of the cyclically adjusted fiscal stance, analyzes fiscal sustainability according the permanent income framework, and simulates various fiscal policy rules with the objective of developing a rule-based fiscal strategy that would delink the economy from oil price fluctuations, improve the management of resource wealth, and safeguard macroeconomic stability.
Libya faces a number of challenges to establishing a robust, efficient, and transparent public financial management system. There is a need to establish a clear macrofiscal policy framework. The Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) should be a financing fund system with clear and rigid inflow and outflow rules and should be based on clear and regulated investment criteria. Under the existing legal and regulatory framework, budget expenditures cannot exceed the initial ceilings specified in the annual budget law. This should be strictly enforced.
This 2012 Article IV Consultation highlights that Tunisia experienced a severe recession in 2011 amid domestic and regional turmoil. Real GDP contracted by 1.8 percent, reflecting a sharp decline in tourism and foreign direct inflows. As a result of the economic downturn and the return of Tunisian workers from Libya, unemployment soared to 19 percent in 2011, with youth unemployment at 42 percent. Tunisia’s medium-term economic growth potential remains favorable, but unleashing it requires a comprehensive package of structural reforms to foster private investment.
In the aftermath of the revolution of 2011, Libya faces the complex task of rebuilding its economy, infrastructure, and institutions, and responding to the demands of the population, especially for improved governance. The conflict that accompanied the revolution had a severe impact on the economy, and international financial institutions have responded to the request of the Libyan authorities to provide policy consultations and technical assistantce to help maintain macroeconomic stability. Libya's National Transitional Council (NTC) has taken steps to promote a peaceful political transition, normalize economic conditions, and set out a national reform agenda. In the short term, the authorities must restore security, bring hydrocarbon production fully online, exercise fiscal discipline, resuscitate the banking system, and maintain macroeconomic stability. Medium-term efforts should focus on capacity building, infrastructure renewal, private-sector development, improving education, job creation, and putting in place an effective social safety net, within a framework of transparent and accountable governance. This paper discusses the risks to economic recovery and measures to promote economic diversification and employment growth.
The Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper III (GPRS-III) will provide a framework for the government’s economic, financial, and sectoral policies for the period 2012–17. All performance criteria (PC) and indicative targets through end-December were observed, except for the indicative target on priority spending, which was missed by a small margin. All measures subject to end-year structural benchmarks were observed except one, on which the authorities are making good progress. The authorities plan to continue implementing stability-oriented macroeconomic policies and growth-enhancing and poverty-reducing policies. The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were achieved.