International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Panama’s economy as the fastest growing in Latin America over the past two decades. It is expected to remain among the most dynamic in the region, with stable and low inflation, sustainable public debt, a declining current account deficit, and a stable financial sector. Economic growth moderated to 4.9 percent in 2016 in the face of external headwinds, and inflation and unemployment remain subdued but have risen slightly. Fiscal consolidation continues in line with fiscal rule targets, and public debt is sustainable. Credit growth remains strong, but has begun to slow recently. The outlook is favorable despite heightened external uncertainty.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents an assessment of financial sector stability in El Salvador. The findings reveal that the financial system of El Salvador was resilient in the face of the global shocks and political uncertainty that took a toll on the economy in 2009. The new stand-by arrangement with the IMF bolstered confidence in the new authority’s policies and eased concern over the limited lender-of-last-resort capacity of the central bank. Despite the adverse economic environment of 2009, banks’ capitalization and liquidity remain high, and stress tests indicate that most banks could withstand severe shocks. Regulated nonbanks are also sound, but pension funds’ poor profitability could pose a problem in the longer term.
The 2011 Article IV Consultation reports that Panama’s economy has rebounded strongly from the 2009 slowdown, and is one of the fastest-growing in the region. Rapid growth and prudent fiscal policy have lowered public debt to less than 40 percent of GDP, and rating agencies have placed Panama’s sovereign debt one notch above investment grade. The neutral fiscal stance envisaged for 2012–13 is broadly appropriate, though a tighter stance would have been preferable to rebuild buffers and contain inflation.
Improvements in financial regulation and supervision in the Central American region (CAPDR) have strengthened financial stability. Prudential instruments with potential macroeconomic effects have been introduced. Nonetheless, compared with the larger Latin American and selected industrial countries, there is still important scope for CAPDR to enhance financial supervision and regulation. Based on two surveys, and the analysis of the Basel Core Principles, the paper determines that some weaknesses exist in risk-based supervision, and that macroprudential measures have scarcely been deployed.
The Salvadoran economy was severely affected by the global economic slowdown. Further strengthening the economy’s growth prospects and reducing poverty will depend on a durable fiscal consolidation effort and improvements in the investment climate through continued commitment to macroeconomic and financial stability. A recent IMF/World Bank Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) confirmed that the Salvadoran financial system withstood the global financial crisis well and was well capitalized and liquid. The FSSA recommended enhancements to the legal and regulatory frameworks as well as measures to reduce some remaining vulnerabilities.
The primary objective of the program was to prevent a crisis of confidence by signaling policy continuity and providing a liquidity buffer in case such shocks materialized. In addition, the program sought to preserve macroeconomic stability by focusing on sustaining fiscal prudence and financial sector reforms. IMF policy requires an ex post evaluation (EPE) of GRA-supported programs with exceptional access within a year after the end of the arrangement. Large provision of liquidity and effective use of IMF’s lending facilities can be effective in preventing a crisis.
This paper discusses El Salvador’s Request for a Stand-By Arrangement and cancellation of the current arrangement. The program seeks to preserve financial stability, safeguard the economic recovery, and strengthen the medium-term fiscal position. Fiscal policy will aim at offsetting the impact of the adverse external environment on domestic activity and the most vulnerable while ensuring debt sustainability over the medium term. IMF financial support would have a catalytic role for official creditors and private investors. It would also provide a liquidity buffer to help absorb any potential shocks to the financial system.