International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents a technical note on Financial Supervision and Regulation of Climate Related issues in Japan. Japan's transition to a net zero economy requires the decarbonization of high-greenhouse gas intensive industrial sectors such as steel. The Japanese authorities have been working on a number of climate-related activities relevant to banks and insurers. Banks and insurers have identified transition and physical risks as potential sources of increasing credit risk, market risk, liquidity risk, operational risk, and reputational risk. Discussions with Financial Services Agency (FSA) supervisory staff revealed that there is yet to be a systematic approach to addressing climate issues in regular supervisory interactions with banks and insurers. The Climate Guidance sets out the FSA’s expectations for financial institutions to support clients’ and investees’ responses to climate change in order to manage financial institutions’ climate-related risks. Japan is leading the way in the implementation of climate-related disclosures.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Jamaica’s 2023 Article IV Consultation and Second Reviews under the Arrangement under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line and Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. Over the last decade, Jamaica has successfully reduced public debt, anchored inflation, and strengthened its external position. It has built a strong record of accomplishment of investing in institutions and prioritizing macroeconomic stability. Growth is expected to slow in the coming year—converging to potential—and inflation should stabilize around the central bank’s target. Current policies are building resilience for Jamaica to face adverse shocks. Discussions focused on policy reforms that will continue to bolster the credibility of fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, strengthen financial stability, and raise growth. Medium-term policies to foster equitable growth, tackle supply side constraints and raise productivity can unleash Jamaica’s potential over the medium term. The reform measure to establish a natural disaster reserve fund is also assessed to be met, albeit with a minor deviation—IMF staff assesses that the measure is substantively implemented and that the objective of the reform measure is met.
The global economy is at another highly uncertain moment: tentative signs of stabilization earlier this year have receded, and the outlook is increasingly risky and uncertain. At the same time, divisions within and across countries are deepening, exacerbated by rising fragmentation. Strong policy action is needed together with pragmatic approaches to find areas of common ground to respond to shared challenges. The IMF is proactively engaging with our members to chart a clear course to a stronger and more sustainable path for the global economy.
This note explains the value of strategic foresight and provides implementation advice based on the IMF’s experience with scenario planning and policy gaming. Section II provides an overview of strategic foresight and some of its tools. Scenario planning and policy gaming have been the Fund’s main foresight techniques so far, though other tools have been complementary. Accordingly, section III focuses on the scenario planning by illustrating applications before detailing the methods we have been using, while section IV describes policy gaming including the matrix policy gaming approach with which we have experimented so far. Section V summarizes the key points. In so doing, the note extends an invitation to those in the economics and finance fields (e.g., researchers, policymakers) to incorporate strategic foresight in their analysis and decision making.
There are demands on central banks and financial regulators to take on new responsibilities for supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy. Regulators can indeed facilitate the reorientation of financial flows necessary for the transition. But their powers should not be overestimated. Their diagnostic and policy toolkits are still in their infancy. They cannot (and should not) expand their mandate unilaterally. Taking on these new responsibilities can also have potential pitfalls and unintended consequences. Ultimately, financial regulators cannot deliver a low-carbon economy by themselves and should not risk being caught again in the role of ‘the only game in town.’
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The main macro-financial risks relate to extensive linkages to Mainland China, stretched real estate valuations, and exposure to shifts in global market and domestic risk sentiment, compounded by escalating U.S.-China tensions. Stress tests show that the financial system is resilient to severe macro-financial shocks, but there are pockets of vulnerabilities in foreign bank branches, investment funds, households, and nonfinancial corporates. Hong Kong SAR’s financial sector is also exposed to physical and transition risks from climate change.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Jamaica’s Sixth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). All quantitative performance criteria, indicative targets, and the structural benchmark at end-June were met, marking a successful completion of the SBA. Discussions centered on policies to lock-in macroeconomic stability and advance supply-side reforms to promote inclusive growth, including: building institutions and advancing fiscal reforms to safeguard and sustain economic stability and debt reduction; improving monetary operations and policy transmission; and bolstering financial inclusion, access to credit, and formality. Most structural policy commitments are on track, although some key reforms to public sector transformation, the compensation framework for public employees, legislation to establish a fiscal council, and creating a special resolution regime for financial institutions have been delayed due to capacity constraints and the need to build stakeholder support for these reforms. Important gains have been made in the oversight of financial institutions.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This IMF Staff Report for the 2016 Discussion on Common Policies of Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) Member Countries highlights that the regional recovery in ECCU is gaining ground, supported by continued low oil prices, strong tourism arrivals, and robust citizenship-by-investment receipts. Risks to the near-term outlook are balanced, but growth in the ECCU continues to be hindered by weak competitiveness, banking sector fragilities, susceptibility to natural disasters, and large public debt. The Executive Directors have encouraged the authorities to press ahead with sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms to decisively address these issues and strengthen the conditions for robust long term growth.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Morocco’s Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2012 Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) Arrangement. The Ex Post Evaluation confirms that the 2012–14 PLL arrangement was consistent with the PLL qualification standards and requirements under the exceptional access policy at the time of the PLL arrangement request in August 2012 and at the subsequent reviews. The authorities’ policies helped maintain macroeconomic stability and reduce fiscal and external vulnerabilities, despite unfavorable external developments. It is observed that despite the significant macroeconomic achievements under the 2012–14 PLL arrangement, a number of policy challenges remained to be fully addressed.