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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted Nepal’s economy. Tourist arrivals collapsed, domestic activity plummeted, and remittances have been volatile. As a result, balance of payments and fiscal financing gaps emerged. After growth was lower than expected in 2019/20, a gradual resumption in economic activity and a corresponding surge in imports and related tax receipts led to higher growth and improved fiscal outturns in 2020/21. However, important fiscal and external financing needs remain to support the COVID-19 response, facilitate a continued recovery, and maintain a comfortable level of reserves.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper examines the degree to which inflation co-moves between India and a panel of countries in Asia. The paper shows that the considerable co-movement in headline inflation rates between India and Nepal is driven almost exclusively by food-inflation co-movement. By contrast, the role for inflation spillovers emanating from India in driving non-food inflation in Nepal appears limited. The implication is that Nepal should rely on domestic monetary policy rather than stable inflation in India to achieve stable domestic inflation. The main takeaway from the results is that food inflation co-movement between India and other countries is higher in cases where the co-movement in rainfall deviations from seasonal norms is highest. Since core inflation co-movement is weak, idiosyncratic domestic factors such as economic slack, exchange-rate movements, and differing degrees of passthrough from food- and energy-price shocks play an important role. This finding is critically important for monetary policy, especially since domestic policy is primarily effective only in controlling core inflation. Thus, domestic monetary policy needs to be calibrated to domestic inflationary pressures—Nepal cannot necessarily rely on stable inflation in India to achieve stable domestic inflation.
Mr. Ashraf Khan
This paper argues that central bank legal protection contributes to safeguarding a central bank and its financial supervisor’s independence, especially for conducting monetary and financial stability policy. However, such legal protection also entails enhanced accountability. To this end, the paper provides a selected overview of legal protection for central banks and financial supervisors (if the supervisor is part of the central bank), focusing on liability, immunity, and indemnification arrangements, and based on the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database. The paper also uses data from the IMF’s Article IV and FSAP Database, and the IMF MCM’s Technical Assistance Database. It lists selected country cases for illustrative purposes. It introduces the concepts of “appropriate legal protection” and “function-specific legal protection” as topics for further research.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses key issues related to the economy of Mauritius. In 2015, the economy of Mauritius has grown at moderate rate; inflation is low; and the external position has improved. However, macroeconomic conditions remain stable but the authorities face macrofinancial challenges stemming from the recent collapse of a large financial conglomerate, which affected the real economy, as well as risk exposures and potential spillovers from the massive offshore sector and its sizeable inter-linkages with domestic banking activities. Despite these challenges, the medium-term outlook remains favorable, as economic growth is set to be boosted by continued low fuel prices and the start of important investment programs.
Rakesh Mohan and Muneesh Kapur
The governance structure in global bodies like the IMF continues to be disproportionally dominated by advanced economies. Sustained rapid growth in emerging and developing economies (EDEs) in the past 2-3 decades has led to their growing relative weight in the global economy, but with little increase in their voice in the IMF. The emergence of regional financial arrangements reflects the growing dissatisfaction of the EDEs with the current framework. The global economy is on the cusp of an epochal change moving the fulcrum of economic power from the North Atlantic towards Asia after more than 200 years. This must be recognized and responded to adequately.
Mr. Fabian Lipinsky and Ms. Li L Ong
Stock markets play a key role in corporate financing in Asia. However, despite their increasing importance in terms of size and cross-border investment activity, the region’s markets are reputed to be more “idiosyncratic” and less reliant on economic and corporate fundamentals in their pricing. Using a model that draws on international asset pricing and economic theory, as well as accounting literature, we find evidence of greater idiosyncratic influences in the pricing of Asia’s stock markets, compared to their G-7 counterparts, beyond the identified systematic factors and local fundamentals. We also show proof of a significant relationship between the strength of implementation of securities regulations and the “noise” in stock pricing, which suggests that improvements in the regulation of securities markets in Asia could enhance the role of stock markets as stable and reliable sources of financing into the future.
Rakesh Mohan, Michael Debabrata Patra, and Muneesh Kapur
The North Atlantic financial crisis of 2008-2009 has spurred renewed interest in reforming the international monetary system, which has been malfunctioning in many aspects. Large and volatile capital flows have promoted greater volatility in financial markets, leading to recurrent financial crises. The renewed focus on the broader role of the central banks, away from narrow price stability monetary policy frameworks, is necessary to ensure domestic macroeconomic and financial stability. Since international monetary cooperation might be difficult, though desirable, central banks in major advanced economies, going forward, need to internalize the implications of their monetary policies for the rest of the global economy to reduce the incidence of financial crises.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Abstract

The future of finance, and in particular saving it from a popular backlash against the global financial crisis and related crisis management policies, has become a matter of great concern. In this brochure, which presents in written form a lecture from the Per Jacobsson Foundation’s lecture series, former Reserve Bank of India Governor Y. V. Reddy explores three interrelated issues of particular concern to central bankers in the search for good finance for the future: how to ensure that the financial sector serves the society better, how to integrate financial sector policies better with national economic policies, and how to ensure that the financial industry functions as a means and not as an end in itself. The question-and-answer session following the lecture is also included in the brochure.

International Monetary Fund
The Standards and Codes Initiative (“Initiative”) has been identified as one of several building blocks for the overhaul of the global financial architecture after the Asian crisis in the late 1990s. Twelve policy areas were selected as key for sound financial systems and a framework for Reports on the Observance of Standard and Codes (ROSCs) was established and has been implemented by the Bank and the Fund for about a decade. Since the Initiative’s inception, a majority of member countries have had one or more ROSCs, although—in part due to the voluntary nature of ROSCs—the coverage is not fully complete. After peaking in 2003, the annual number of ROSCs completed has declined considerably. In particular, the number of fiscal transparency and data ROSCs has dropped, reflecting the downsizing of the Fund, and changes in departmental priorities. The reduction in financial sector ROSCs—generally done as a part of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP)—has been less, although fewer ROSCs have been done per FSAP. Revisions to the standards to incorporate the lessons from the crisis, the initiatives of the Financial Stability Board (FSB), and changes to financial surveillance are likely to have important implications for the future of the Initiative. In particular, the commitment by FSB members to undergo FSAPs every 5 years and the FSB’s framework to enhance adherence to international financial standards are likely to boost demand for financial sector ROSCs. These resource pressures impose a greater burden on the prioritization process, and strategic decisions will have to be made to augment resources for the Initiative or on where the resource cuts could come from in order to maintain adequate coverage of non-G20 countries.