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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper identifies the sources and quantifies the exchange market pressures on the Libyan dinar. The paper highlights that: (1) the cumulative pressure on the exchange rate has been negative; and (2) despite the alternating appreciation and depreciation pressures, foreign exchange reserves have remained relatively stable. The authorities’ toolkit is limited: they strive to maintain the stock of reserves at a high level and to keep the exchange rate peg intact, all without the use of fiscal policy or of conventional monetary policy instruments. Therefore, developing conventional monetary policy tools and making sure that fiscal policy is consistent with the overall macroeconomic objectives would help the authorities achieve their goals without resorting to capital flow measures. While Libya had periods of both depreciation and appreciation pressures, overall, it faced substantial depreciation pressure. In other words, Libya’s policies over the medium term were not in line with the three-pronged macroeconomic objective of maintaining high foreign reserves, a pegged official exchange rate, and a narrow gap between the parallel and the official exchange rates. The findings suggest that additional monetary tools and the use of fiscal policy can help contain the parallel market premium and avoid the use of capital flow measures.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Lesotho’s economic growth has weakened compared with the earlier forecast, owing to adverse exogenous shocks. In 2011/12, despite weather-related shocks (floods), robust growth was maintained. To address these shocks, the authorities have sought external assistance. Lesotho continued to face the challenges in rebuilding its international reserve cushion. The authorities continued commitment to implement reforms in improving the business climate to support private sector-led growth and economic diversification. The authorities have also requested a waiver for the missed cumulative quantitative performance.
International Monetary Fund
The primary objective of the program was to prevent a crisis of confidence by signaling policy continuity and providing a liquidity buffer in case such shocks materialized. In addition, the program sought to preserve macroeconomic stability by focusing on sustaining fiscal prudence and financial sector reforms. IMF policy requires an ex post evaluation (EPE) of GRA-supported programs with exceptional access within a year after the end of the arrangement. Large provision of liquidity and effective use of IMF’s lending facilities can be effective in preventing a crisis.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses El Salvador’s Request for a Stand-By Arrangement and cancellation of the current arrangement. The program seeks to preserve financial stability, safeguard the economic recovery, and strengthen the medium-term fiscal position. Fiscal policy will aim at offsetting the impact of the adverse external environment on domestic activity and the most vulnerable while ensuring debt sustainability over the medium term. IMF financial support would have a catalytic role for official creditors and private investors. It would also provide a liquidity buffer to help absorb any potential shocks to the financial system.
International Monetary Fund
Zambia’s nonperforming loans are expected to increase and banks have become more cautious in their lending. The staff report for the Zambia’s first and second reviews of the Three-Year Arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Augmentation of Access is examined. The slowdown in external demand and uncertainty about the global outlook have negatively affected growth prospects and the balance of payments, and made the program targets for reserve accumulation unattainable.
International Monetary Fund
Peru’s macroeconomic policies continue to be strong under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Executive Directors appreciated the implementation of policies to entrench macroeconomic stability, lower poverty, and lessen vulnerabilities, and also emphasized the need to maintain a prudent fiscal policy stance, implement structural reforms, solidify the fiscal framework, and accelerate the implementation of the antipoverty strategy. They also stressed the need to entrench greater exchange rate flexibility, strengthen the inflation, preserve a prudent role for public banks, and enhance the business environment.
International Monetary Fund
The staff report for the Second Review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) of Cape Verde discusses the macroeconomic framework and recent developments. Cape Verde’s economic program under the PSI is designed to help the country prepare for the opportunities and challenges associated with its graduation from the United Nations least-developed-country (LDC) status in 2008. IMF staff recommended, and the authorities agreed, that a comprehensive medium-term investment plan be prepared, including for state-owned enterprises. This approach would support prioritization of public investment and the planning needed to secure concessional external financing.
International Monetary Fund
The Bahamas showed strong performance owing to its prudent macroeconomic management. Executive Directors welcomed this step, and emphasized the need to strengthen fiscal and international reserve positions, and diversify the economic base to maintain confidence and reduce economic vulnerabilities. They stressed the need to accelerate structural reforms, improve financial supervision and regulation, and to bring the regimes for combating money laundering and terrorism financing. They appreciated The Bahamas's participation in the General Data Dissemination System, and encouraged action to remove inconsistencies that exist in the economic data.