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Law > Business and Financial

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper presents Republic of Kazakhstan’s Financial System Stability Assessment report. In 2024, Kazakhstan’s economic growth is expected to slow to 3.1 percent, mostly due to delays in expanding the Tengiz oil field, while inflation, which is still well above the authorities’ target, would continue to decline. The authorities have continued their efforts to secure macroeconomic stability. The National Bank of Kazakhstan maintained tight monetary policy throughout 2023. The authorities remain committed to medium-term fiscal consolidation and have undertaken significant efforts to increase trade diversification and address governance and corruption vulnerabilities. According to the recently completed Financial Sector Assessment Program, the banking system appears well capitalized in aggregate. Kazakhstan is exposed to transition risk from domestic and global climate policies. Banking supervision has become more risk-based, but related party transactions remain challenging to monitor and consolidated supervision is still incomplete. Finally, there remain gaps in the financial safety nets and crisis management arrangements.
Keywords:
FSAP finding; Tier 1; kazakhstani tenge; FX assets; Kazakhstan stock exchange; NBK policy rate; consumer lending; instability episode; nonfinancial corporate; headline inflation; asset concentration risk; liquidity shock; ARDFM power; liquidity forbearance measure; Kazakhstan financial system; loan portfolio; cash flow; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Financial sector stability; Loans; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands-Aruba: Technical Assistance Report-Financial Stability Diagnostic and Scoping Mission
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This technical assistance report on Aruba highlights the financial stability diagnostic and scoping mission. The economy of Aruba is tourist dependent, which is an important source of vulnerability. The major source of risk comes from lending. Banks are increasingly exposed to the real estate market and compete with nonregulated lenders. Residential house prices have increased significantly in some regions since the start of the pandemic driven by strong demand from nonresidential buyers as well as higher construction costs due to coronavirus disease-related supply constraints. The future Financial Stability Department (FSD) is advised to develop a strategy on Macroprudential Policy (MaP). Based on the macroprudential strategy, the FSD should prepare the methodology for the introduction of the MaP instruments chosen as well as ensure the necessary preparations in terms of data collection for this purpose. The data available to the Central Bank of Aruba is sufficient for starting systemic risk monitoring, but some data gaps should be addressed. The monitoring of systemic risk and the development of macroprudential tools requires more granular, frequent, and timely data.
Keywords:
CARTAC mission; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; bank FIS; mortgage bank; bank data; c. CBA; lending portfolio; Financial sector stability; Mortgages; Commercial banks; Housing prices; Loans; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mexico: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Mexico has had a robust financial system for many years. Banks have maintained high capital and liquidity buffers. However, the system provides less finance to the real economy than in peers. Mexico has experienced significant real GDP fluctuations since the Peso crisis but no major credit boom-bust cycles, given strong policy frameworks that have been further enhanced since the 2016 FSAP. The economy has strong external trade and financial linkages. These have been an important channel for transmitting global shocks. The financial system has been resilient to the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting a mix of resumption in mobility and support from domestic and global policies. Buffers in the financial system have increased further during the pandemic. The key risk confronting Mexico is the first sustained and ongoing tightening of global liquidity conditions since the Global Financial Crisis.
Keywords:
bridge bank tool; Development bank; banking liquidity regulation committee; bank cash flow analysis result; liquidity stress test framework; climate finance strategy; Banco de México; bank solvency stress test result; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Commercial banks; Liquidity; Financial sector stability; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Financial System Stability Assessment-Press Release and Statement by the Executive Director for the People’s Republic of China—Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The main macro-financial risks relate to extensive linkages to Mainland China, stretched real estate valuations, and exposure to shifts in global market and domestic risk sentiment, compounded by escalating U.S.-China tensions. Stress tests show that the financial system is resilient to severe macro-financial shocks, but there are pockets of vulnerabilities in foreign bank branches, investment funds, households, and nonfinancial corporates. Hong Kong SAR’s financial sector is also exposed to physical and transition risks from climate change.
Keywords:
Hong Kong SAR authorities; liquidity risk monitoring; Hong Kong SAR economy; property market development; risk sentiment; H. investment fund liquidity stress tests; market expectation; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Commercial banks; Stress testing; Financial sector stability; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Philippines: Financial System Stability Assessment-Press Release and Statement by the Executive Director for the Philippines
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
GDP contracted by 9½ percent in 2020—a much steeper decline than during the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC)—but it is now recovering with the easing of containment measures and economic policy support. Banks are closely connected to the corporate sector through high credit exposures and conglomerate ownership linkages. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) may list the Philippines as a jurisdiction with serious Anti-Money Laundering and Combatting the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) deficiencies in 2021. The country is also vulnerable to climate change (physical) risks, especially the destruction of physical capital from typhoons.
Keywords:
bank secrecy law; BSP charter; bridge bank authority; secrecy law; government financial institutions; Financial sector stability; Loans; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Financial Sector Assessment Program; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Morocco: First Review Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Morocco
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Morocco’s First Review Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL). The Moroccan authorities are committed to sustaining sound policies. The government’s economic program remains in line with key reforms agreed under the PLL arrangement, including to further reduce fiscal and external vulnerabilities, while strengthening the foundations for higher and more inclusive growth. The transition to greater exchange rate flexibility initiated in 2018 is expected to enhance the economy’s capacity to absorb shocks and preserve its external competitiveness. The current favorable economic environment remains supportive to continue this reform in a carefully sequenced and well-communicated manner. The report recommends that continued reforms are needed to raise potential growth and reduce high unemployment levels, especially among the youth, increase female labor participation, and reduce regional disparities. Reforms of education, governance, the labor market, and the business environment would help support more private sector-led growth and job creation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; policy; The Article IV consultation discussion; authority; current account; reform; article IV consultation discussion; article IV report; PLL qualification criteria; IMF's executive board; policy implementation; Loans; Global; Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Palau: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Palau
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Palau’s economy has performed well in recent years. The economy grew strongly in FY2015 (ending September 30, 2015) at 9.4 percent, with tourist arrivals and construction activity expanding by 35 percent. However, the rapid rise in tourism activity strained infrastructure and was tilted toward low budget tourists, which led the authorities to limit the number of charter flights in FY2016. The outlook for Palau is also favorable. Economic growth is expected to slow temporarily to zero in FY2016 as tourist arrivals decline, but to rebound to 5 percent in FY2017 as tourism activity recovers with the entry of new hotels and construction picks up.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; government reform effort; infrastructure investment; Palau; development agenda; government place; private sector development; Tourism; Fiscal stance; Infrastructure; Loans; Fiscal consolidation; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mauritius: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mauritius
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses key issues related to the economy of Mauritius. In 2015, the economy of Mauritius has grown at moderate rate; inflation is low; and the external position has improved. However, macroeconomic conditions remain stable but the authorities face macrofinancial challenges stemming from the recent collapse of a large financial conglomerate, which affected the real economy, as well as risk exposures and potential spillovers from the massive offshore sector and its sizeable inter-linkages with domestic banking activities. Despite these challenges, the medium-term outlook remains favorable, as economic growth is set to be boosted by continued low fuel prices and the start of important investment programs.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; foreign currency; exchange rate; transmission mechanism; reform strategy; monetary policy transmission mechanism; Mauritian economy; long-term debt; economy status; reform effort; Domestic credit; Loans; Balance of payments statistics; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Poland: Review Under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for the Republic of Poland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses Poland’s performance under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement. In recent years, Poland’s macroeconomic policies have focused on further strengthening fundamentals and institutional frameworks. Fiscal consolidation has led to an exit from the Excessive Deficit Procedure. Monetary policy has been eased to help lift inflation. Financial sector supervision has been strengthened with a new macroprudential framework. Reserves are broadly adequate against standard metrics. The new government has pledged to maintain prudent policies, including gradual fiscal consolidation over the medium term, and to ensure the continued stability of the banking system. In the period ahead, it will be important to identify specific growth-friendly measures to underpin the fiscal adjustment and reduce implementation risk.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; FCL arrangement; FCL resource; IMF's Executive Board; CA deficit; economy; policy buffer; Bond yields; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Luxembourg: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Luxembourg’s economic model, emphasizing fiscal stability, openness, firm prudential oversight, and responsiveness to investor needs, is delivering strong growth. Buoyant financial services exports contributed to real growth of close to 3 percent in 2014, with strong job creation. Budget 2015 launched a multi-year fiscal consolidation aimed at offsetting falling revenues from electronic commerce. The economy faces important challenges going forward. Evolving international tax transparency standards, in which Luxembourg is participating fully, could impact the revenue base. Growth is projected at 2.5 percent in 2015.