This paper presents South Africa’s Post-Financing Assessment report. The new government of national unity that took office in June faces significant challenges, including declining real per capita growth, high unemployment, poverty, and inequality, and a rising level of public debt. The new administration has committed to address these challenges by continuing ongoing structural reforms aimed at addressing supply constraints and bolstering inclusive growth, while maintaining fiscal discipline. Monetary policy should carefully manage the descent of inflation to the mid-point of the target range and stay data dependent. The report recommends that policies should focus on bolstering inclusive growth and restoring fiscal sustainability, while managing the descent of inflation to target and safeguarding financial stability. Monetary policy should stay data dependent and rate cuts be considered only after inflation declines sustainably toward the midpoint of the target range. The authorities should continue to monitor financial sector risks, including those related to the bank-sovereign nexus, and enhance supervision and prudential regulations.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper highlights Ecuador’s Request for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The authorities implemented swift and bold measures in early 2024 to address the fiscal and liquidity challenges and requested a 48-month EFF arrangement of SDR 3 billion to support their policy plans and advance an ambitious structural reform agenda. IMF estimates that IMF resources are needed to close a financing gap of about US$4 billion during the program period, after factoring in an ambitious and large fiscal plan, financial support from international financial institutions and official bilateral partners, and renewed access to international capital markets. The baseline scenario under the program is, however, subject to substantive risks, stemming from both external and domestic factors. IMF assesses that the policy program provides a reasonably strong prospect of success, amid broad support to the main objectives of the EFF arrangement, and strong commitment and capacity by the authorities to take measures to ensure its successful implementation.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The Fund’s precautionary toolkit rests on the simple proposition that facilitating crisis prevention is far less costly than crisis resolution. Its value increases with systemic risk. Serial shocks to the global trading and financial systems pose significant and persistent headwinds for well-integrated emerging markets. An adequately funded global financial safety net (GFSN) with a suite of precautionary tools allows qualifying members to respond to balance of payments (BoP) shocks, reducing the incidence of crises and limiting contagion. The Fund is the only layer of the GFSN available to all members; other layers vary in their availability and externalities. In this context, the overarching objective of this review of the Flexible Credit Line (FCL), Short-term Liquidity Line (SLL), and Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) is to ensure that the precautionary facilities toolkit (henceforth “the toolkit”) is fit for purpose for the challenges ahead.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted Nepal’s economy. Tourist arrivals collapsed, domestic activity plummeted, and remittances have been volatile. As a result, balance of payments and fiscal financing gaps emerged. After growth was lower than expected in 2019/20, a gradual resumption in economic activity and a corresponding surge in imports and related tax receipts led to higher growth and improved fiscal outturns in 2020/21. However, important fiscal and external financing needs remain to support the COVID-19 response, facilitate a continued recovery, and maintain a comfortable level of reserves.
The 2016–20 ECF/EFF helped rehabilitate Moldova’s banking sector, bolstering macro-financial stability. However, the COVID-19 pandemic, drought in 2020, and the ongoing surge in global energy prices, have slowed economic activity, intensified downside risks, and complicated policy making. While emergency financial assistance under a blended RCF/RFI (100 percent of quota) and SDR allocation (US$236 million) helped cushion the pandemic’s impact, Moldova remains among the poorest countries in Europe with long-standing governance and structural weaknesses inhibiting income convergence.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Swift implementation of containment measures, limited spillovers from tourism, and COVID-related fiscal spending financed by buoyant fishing revenues and donor grants have allowed Tuvalu—a fragile Pacific micro-state—avoid a recession in 2020. The economy is expected to expand by 2.5 percent in 2021, supported by fiscal expenditures and resumption of infrastructure projects. But significant challenges remain: Tuvalu is vulnerable to the effects of climate change, its economy is dominated by the public sector, and its revenue base is narrow. Uncertainty around donor commitments complicates fiscal planning.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Morocco’s First Review Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL). The Moroccan authorities are committed to sustaining sound policies. The government’s economic program remains in line with key reforms agreed under the PLL arrangement, including to further reduce fiscal and external vulnerabilities, while strengthening the foundations for higher and more inclusive growth. The transition to greater exchange rate flexibility initiated in 2018 is expected to enhance the economy’s capacity to absorb shocks and preserve its external competitiveness. The current favorable economic environment remains supportive to continue this reform in a carefully sequenced and well-communicated manner. The report recommends that continued reforms are needed to raise potential growth and reduce high unemployment levels, especially among the youth, increase female labor participation, and reduce regional disparities. Reforms of education, governance, the labor market, and the business environment would help support more private sector-led growth and job creation.