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Law > Business and Financial

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  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Central Banks and Their Policies x
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Cover Shocks and Capital Flows
Shocks and Capital Flows
Policy Responses in a Volatile World

Abstract

The high exposure of open economies to shocks makes them particularly vulnerable to volatile capital flows and advanced economy monetary policy spillovers. How should and do domestic policymakers respond? The traditional answer has been to use flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber. But flexible exchange rates may not offer full insulation when financial markets are imperfect. This book brings together recent empirical studies at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the effectiveness of different tools in responding to such shocks. The 18 chapters in this volume provide a rich background to the recently launched Integrated Policy Framework by the IMF. They comprise assessments of countries’ actual use of different tools, as well as in-depth evaluations of their effectiveness and side effects, covering macroprudential policies, monetary policy, foreign-exchange intervention, and capital flow management policies. Many of the studies involve new data and methods to tackle the inherently difficult problems in identifying and comparing the effects of policies under different circumstances. As a result, the volume offers the reader a comprehensive, in-depth coverage of the policy-oriented empirical research that has informed the development of a new way of thinking about open-economy macroeconomics at the IMF.

Keywords:
Capital flows; monetary policy; exchange rate policy; foreign exchange intervention; macroprudential policy; capital controls; FX debt; account restrictiveness; exchange rate intervention; IT regime; Exchange rates; Macroprudential policy instruments; Global; Asia and Pacific; Caribbean; Central America; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Modeling the Reserve Demand to Facilitate Central Bank Operations
Zhuohui Chen, Nikolaos Kourentzes, and Mr. Romain M Veyrune
Implementing monetary policy largely consists in controlling short-term interest rates which supposes having a good understanding of banks’ demand for liquidity also called “reserves” at the central bank. This work aims to offer a modeling methodology for estimating the demand for reserves that itself is influenced by various macro and market structure variables. The model can help central banks to identify ”stable points” on the demand for reserves, which correspond to the levels of reserves for which the short-term interest rate volatility is minimal. Both parametric and non-parametric approaches are provided, with a particular focus on capturing the modeling uncertainty and, therefore, facilitating scenario analysis. A method is proposed to test the forecasting performances of different approaches and exogenous regressors combination, finding that simpler parametric expressions provide on balance better performances. Adding variables to both parametric and non-parametric provides better explanations and predictions. The proposed methodology is evaluated using data from the Euro system and the US Federal Reserve System.
Keywords:
Reserve demand; scenario analysis; short-term interest rate; sigmoid; modeling methodology; market structure variable; modeling uncertainty; explanatory variable; Short term interest rates; Standing facilities; Deposit rates; Central bank operations; Global
Cover FinTech Notes
Capital Flow Management Measures in the Digital Age: Challenges of Crypto Assets
Mr. Dong He, Annamaria Kokenyne, Xavier Lavayssière, Ms. Inutu Lukonga, Nadine Schwarz, Nobuyasu Sugimoto, and Jeanne Verrier
Capital flow management measures (CFMs) can be part of the broader policy toolkit to help countries reap the benefits of capital flows while managing the associated risks. Their implementation typically requires that financial intermediaries verify the nature of transactions and the identities of transacting parties but is facing the rising challenge of crypto assets. Indeed, crypto assets have become a significant instrument for payments and speculative investments in some countries. They can be traded pseudonymously and held without identification of the residency of the asset holder. Many crypto service providers operate across borders, making supervision and enforcement by national authorities more difficult. The challenges posed by the attributes of crypto assets are compounded by gaps in the legal and regulatory frameworks. This paper aims to discuss how crypto assets could impact the effectiveness of CFMs from a structural and longer-term perspective. To preserve the effectiveness of CFMs against crypto-related challenges, policymakers need to consider a multifaceted strategy whose essential elements include clarifying the legal status of crypto assets and ensuring that CFM laws and regulations cover them; devising a comprehensive, consistent, and coordinated regulatory approach to crypto assets and applying it effectively to CFMs; establishing international collaborative arrangements for supervision of crypto assets; addressing data gaps and leveraging technology (regtech and suptech) to create anomaly-detection models and red-flag indicators that will allow for timely risk monitoring and CFM implementation.
Keywords:
capital flow management measures; CFMs; crypto assets; digital currencies; Regtech; Suptech; untraceable transactions; crypto exchanges; distributed ledger technology; Bitcoin; FINTECH note; asset holder; capital outflow restriction; crypto asset Adoption; crypto-asset exchange; Virtual currencies; Capital flow management; Blockchain and DLT; Capital flows; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Regulation, Climate Change, and the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy: A Survey of the Issues
Mr. Dimitri G Demekas and Pierpaolo Grippa
There are demands on central banks and financial regulators to take on new responsibilities for supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy. Regulators can indeed facilitate the reorientation of financial flows necessary for the transition. But their powers should not be overestimated. Their diagnostic and policy toolkits are still in their infancy. They cannot (and should not) expand their mandate unilaterally. Taking on these new responsibilities can also have potential pitfalls and unintended consequences. Ultimately, financial regulators cannot deliver a low-carbon economy by themselves and should not risk being caught again in the role of ‘the only game in town.’
Keywords:
Financial stability; financial regulation; climate change; climate mitigation policy; low-carbon economy; energy transition; carbon price; green finance; United Nations climate change conference; policy coordination; unintended consequence; Climate change; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Behavioral Approach to Financial Supervision, Regulation, and Central Banking
Mr. Ashraf Khan
This paper describes how behavioral elements are relevant to financial supervision, regulation, and central banking. It focuses on (1) behavioral effects of norms (social, legal, and market); (2) behavior of others (internalization, identification, and compliance); and (3) psychological biases. It stresses that financial supervisors, regulators, and central banks have not yet realized the full potential that these behavioral elements hold. To do so, they need to devise a behavioral approach that includes aspects relating to individual and group behavior. The paper provides case examples of experiments with such an approach, including behavioral supervision. Finally, it highlights areas for further research.
Keywords:
WP; corporate governance; market norm; risk management; social science; crowding out
Cover IMF Working Papers
Legal Protection: Liability and Immunity Arrangements of Central Banks and Financial Supervisors
Mr. Ashraf Khan
This paper argues that central bank legal protection contributes to safeguarding a central bank and its financial supervisor’s independence, especially for conducting monetary and financial stability policy. However, such legal protection also entails enhanced accountability. To this end, the paper provides a selected overview of legal protection for central banks and financial supervisors (if the supervisor is part of the central bank), focusing on liability, immunity, and indemnification arrangements, and based on the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database. The paper also uses data from the IMF’s Article IV and FSAP Database, and the IMF MCM’s Technical Assistance Database. It lists selected country cases for illustrative purposes. It introduces the concepts of “appropriate legal protection” and “function-specific legal protection” as topics for further research.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; government; country; monetary policy; staff; central banking; financial supervision; financial regulation; law; liability; immunity; technical assistance; central bank law; civil servant statute; State agency; central bank staff; liability standard; central bank liability; central bank governor; indemnification arrangement; liability regime; central bank website; State liability; central bank liability standard; Central bank legislation; Legal support in revenue administration; Central bank autonomy; Central bank governance; Global; Asia and Pacific; financial supervisor
Cover IMF Working Papers
The International Monetary System: Where Are We and Where Do We Need to Go?
Rakesh Mohan, Michael Debabrata Patra, and Muneesh Kapur
The North Atlantic financial crisis of 2008-2009 has spurred renewed interest in reforming the international monetary system, which has been malfunctioning in many aspects. Large and volatile capital flows have promoted greater volatility in financial markets, leading to recurrent financial crises. The renewed focus on the broader role of the central banks, away from narrow price stability monetary policy frameworks, is necessary to ensure domestic macroeconomic and financial stability. Since international monetary cooperation might be difficult, though desirable, central banks in major advanced economies, going forward, need to internalize the implications of their monetary policies for the rest of the global economy to reduce the incidence of financial crises.
Keywords:
WP; capital flow; global economy; reserve currency; net capital; foreign exchange; Capital flows; central banks; currency internationalization; international monetary system; financial stability; pound sterling; IMS performance; post-Bretton Woods IMS; gold standard; financial asset; risk diversification; developing economy; IMS feed; short-term debt; multipolar IMS; Mexican peso; Currencies; Financial sector stability; Global; Asia and Pacific; East Asia; Middle East; North Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Institutional Arrangements for Macroprudential Policy in Asia
Cheng Hoon Lim, Mr. Rishi S Ramchand, Mrs. Helen W Wagner, and Mr. Xiaoyong Wu
This paper surveys institutional arrangements for macroprudential policy in Asia. Central banks in Asia typically have a financial stability mandate, and play a key role in the macroprudential framework. Smaller and more open economies with prudential regulation inside the central bank tend to have institutional arrangements that give the central bank a leading role. In larger and more complex economies where prudential regulation is outside the central bank, the financial stability mandate is usually shared with other agencies and the government tends to play a leading role. Domestic policy coordination is typically performed by a financial stability committee/other coordination body while cross-border cooperation is largely governed by Memoranda of Understanding.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; CB model; bank; financial system; authority; banking; financial stability; institutional arrangements; macroprudential; regulation; banking regulator; long-standing responsibility; executive branch; business conduct regulator; central bank in Asia; conduct regulator; central bank involvement; economies in the CB model; central bank of Malaysia Act; banking ordinance; Financial sector stability; Macroprudential policy; Systemic risk; Institutional arrangements for revenue administration; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Building Blocks for Effective Macroprudential Policies in Latin America: Institutional Considerations
Patrick A. Imam, Erlend Nier, and Mr. Luis Ignacio Jácome
An increasing number of countries - including in Latin America - are reforming their financial stability frameworks in the aftermath of the financial crisis, in order to establish a stronger macroprudential policy function. This paper analyzes existing arrangements for financial stability in Latin America and examines key issues to consider when designing the institutional foundations for effective macroprudential policies. The paper focuses primarily on eight Latin American countries, where the institutional arrangements for monetary and financial policies can be classified in two distinct groups: the "Pacific" model that includes Chile, Colombia, Peru, Costa Rica, and Mexico, and the "Atlantic" model, comprising Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay.
Keywords:
WP; financial system; issues regulation; a number of crises country; monetary policy; section III; Macrorpudential policy; financial stability; systemic crises; central banks; banking supervision; supervisory agency; deposit guarantee; response policy; Financial sector stability; Macroprudential policy; Systemic risk; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Developments in Financial Supervision and the Use of Macroprudential Measures in Central America
Mr. Mynor Meza and Mr. Fernando L Delgado
Improvements in financial regulation and supervision in the Central American region (CAPDR) have strengthened financial stability. Prudential instruments with potential macroeconomic effects have been introduced. Nonetheless, compared with the larger Latin American and selected industrial countries, there is still important scope for CAPDR to enhance financial supervision and regulation. Based on two surveys, and the analysis of the Basel Core Principles, the paper determines that some weaknesses exist in risk-based supervision, and that macroprudential measures have scarcely been deployed.