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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper highlights Saudi Arabia’s Financial System Stability Assessment as part of Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). The FSAP took place against the backdrop of a robust economy driven by an ambitious state-led transformation agenda to accelerate Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification (Vision 2030). The Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund plays a key role in implementing and funding the economic transformation. At present, financial sector risks from the rapid economic transformation appear contained. Banks are well-capitalized, profitable and appear resilient to severe macroeconomic shocks. Banks’ capacity to manage liquidity stress scenarios is generally good, although funding concentration is sizable. The authorities have made commendable efforts to mitigate risks from the rapidly growing credit and real estate market, but significant data gaps create challenges for systemic risk monitoring. The time is right to strengthen systemic risk monitoring and the legal, institutional, and operational frameworks in support of financial stability going forward.

Abstract

The high exposure of open economies to shocks makes them particularly vulnerable to volatile capital flows and advanced economy monetary policy spillovers. How should and do domestic policymakers respond? The traditional answer has been to use flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber. But flexible exchange rates may not offer full insulation when financial markets are imperfect. This book brings together recent empirical studies at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the effectiveness of different tools in responding to such shocks. The 18 chapters in this volume provide a rich background to the recently launched Integrated Policy Framework by the IMF. They comprise assessments of countries’ actual use of different tools, as well as in-depth evaluations of their effectiveness and side effects, covering macroprudential policies, monetary policy, foreign-exchange intervention, and capital flow management policies. Many of the studies involve new data and methods to tackle the inherently difficult problems in identifying and comparing the effects of policies under different circumstances. As a result, the volume offers the reader a comprehensive, in-depth coverage of the policy-oriented empirical research that has informed the development of a new way of thinking about open-economy macroeconomics at the IMF.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper presents Finland’s Financial System Stability Assessment report. Finland has further improved the regulation and supervision of its financial sector since the 2016 Financial Sector Assessment Program, in part driven by European legislation and institutions. The size of the banking sector increased significantly in 2018 with the redomicilation of Nordea. Finland weathered the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic well relative to other economies, with fiscal support and interventions from the authorities. However, Finland is now navigating a weaker economic outlook given the war in Ukraine and ensuing energy crisis, despite limited direct financial exposures to Russia. Risks to financial stability come from a large banking sector, which is highly concentrated and dominated by a few institutions, and is interconnected with other financial systems in the Nordic region. Stress tests indicate that the banking system appears resilient to severe macro-financial shocks but remains vulnerable to liquidity shocks. Resolution and crisis management should be supported by greater coordination of authorities’ preparation and management of future crises.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Mexico has had a robust financial system for many years. Banks have maintained high capital and liquidity buffers. However, the system provides less finance to the real economy than in peers. Mexico has experienced significant real GDP fluctuations since the Peso crisis but no major credit boom-bust cycles, given strong policy frameworks that have been further enhanced since the 2016 FSAP. The economy has strong external trade and financial linkages. These have been an important channel for transmitting global shocks. The financial system has been resilient to the COVID-19 pandemic, reflecting a mix of resumption in mobility and support from domestic and global policies. Buffers in the financial system have increased further during the pandemic. The key risk confronting Mexico is the first sustained and ongoing tightening of global liquidity conditions since the Global Financial Crisis.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
South Africa has made significant progress in strengthening its macroprudential policy framework and foundations since the 2014 FSAP. Institutional arrangements were overhauled by the 2017 Financial Sector Regulations Act that, among others, introduced the current ‘Twin Peaks’ structure, provided SARB with a strong financial stability mandate, and sought to foster interagency coordination and collaboration (including via the establishment of the Financial System Council of Regulators. As a result, South Africa has a hybrid macroprudential policy framework that combines a ‘strong’ decision maker in the SARB Governor, but that is importantly supported by an advisory committee structure, fostering effective cooperation and coordination. Systemic risk monitoring has also been enhanced and some macroprudential policy tools phased-in.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas (BSP), together with the other financial sector regulators and the Department of Finance (DoF), made significant progress in developing a framework for macroprudential supervision. The BSP plays a central role as the bank and payment system supervisor, as well as macroprudential authority with with its financial stability mandate obtained in 2019, and the chair of inter-agency coordination mechanisms (Financial Stability Coordination Council, FSCC). The FSCC was established in 2011 as a voluntary interagency body (without decision-making powers) to coordinate macroprudential policies and crisis management and include the BSP, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), Insurance Commission (IC), Philippine Deposit Insurance Commission (PDIC) and the DoF. Within the BSP, a financial stability “unit” (OSRM, established in 2017) works on macroprudential analysis and policy preparation. BSP’s Financial Stability Policy Committee (FSPC), a Monetary Board (MB) subcommittee established in 2020, decides on macroprudential issues, while policy decision making on monetary policy and financial sector supervision takes place in the MB.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper examines the degree to which inflation co-moves between India and a panel of countries in Asia. The paper shows that the considerable co-movement in headline inflation rates between India and Nepal is driven almost exclusively by food-inflation co-movement. By contrast, the role for inflation spillovers emanating from India in driving non-food inflation in Nepal appears limited. The implication is that Nepal should rely on domestic monetary policy rather than stable inflation in India to achieve stable domestic inflation. The main takeaway from the results is that food inflation co-movement between India and other countries is higher in cases where the co-movement in rainfall deviations from seasonal norms is highest. Since core inflation co-movement is weak, idiosyncratic domestic factors such as economic slack, exchange-rate movements, and differing degrees of passthrough from food- and energy-price shocks play an important role. This finding is critically important for monetary policy, especially since domestic policy is primarily effective only in controlling core inflation. Thus, domestic monetary policy needs to be calibrated to domestic inflationary pressures—Nepal cannot necessarily rely on stable inflation in India to achieve stable domestic inflation.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) has a broad mandate to safeguard financial stability in Georgia and has applied several measures that can be considered macroprudential. For instance, the NBG adjusted risk weights for foreign-currency (FX) loans to unhedged borrowers in a countercyclical manner in recent years. Going forward, it plans to introduce the Basel III countercyclical capital buffer regime for the banking system in 2015, which will require that it sets or releases the buffer on a regular basis, based on assessments of cyclical risks. Policymakers should consider establishing a full-fledged macroprudential policy framework in line with international best practices. The current framework is too broad to support the effective and transparent use of macroprudential policy going forward. An improved system would involve a revised legal framework to cement the use of a broad range of macroprudential instruments, the establishment of a Financial Stability Committee at the NBG level, and strong accountability and communication practices, including by the publication of regular reports on financial stability. The list of available macroprudential instruments should go beyond risk buffers and allow the NBG to set measures that directly influence the banks’ activities, e.g., through the application of loan-to-value (LTV) or payment-to-income (PTI) caps. The introduction of macroprudential measures for FX-induced credit and liquidity risks have led to a strengthening of banks’ risk buffers. On the asset side, additional risk weights are applied to FX loans to unhedged borrowers, while on the liability side, reserve requirements are higher for FX deposits and other borrowings. Furthermore, banks have to hold more liquidity for nonresident deposits (of which 92 percent are in foreign currency as of end-2013), if those deposits exceed 10 percent of total deposits. Combined with the general liquidity regulation, these measures have increased banks’ capital and liquidity buffers, as shown in the results of the FSAP solvency and liquidity stress tests. The planned introduction of buffer requirements to mitigate cyclical and structural risks is a welcome step. The countercyclical capital buffer and the capital surcharge for systemically important banks are planned to be implemented over the next few years. The capital surcharge for systemically important banks, which would currently apply at least to the three largest banks by total assets, is particularly important in the Georgian context due to the high market concentration in the banking sector.
Cheng Hoon Lim, Mr. Rishi S Ramchand, Mrs. Helen W Wagner, and Mr. Xiaoyong Wu
This paper surveys institutional arrangements for macroprudential policy in Asia. Central banks in Asia typically have a financial stability mandate, and play a key role in the macroprudential framework. Smaller and more open economies with prudential regulation inside the central bank tend to have institutional arrangements that give the central bank a leading role. In larger and more complex economies where prudential regulation is outside the central bank, the financial stability mandate is usually shared with other agencies and the government tends to play a leading role. Domestic policy coordination is typically performed by a financial stability committee/other coordination body while cross-border cooperation is largely governed by Memoranda of Understanding.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical assistance project on macroprudential policy and modeling, which took place in August 2012, provided advice to the Costa Rican authorities on improving the institutional arrangements for conducting macroprudential policy, while also assessing the preconditions for dynamic loan-loss provisioning and improving the central bank’s macroeconomic projection model. Based on its analyses, the mission team specifically recommended establishing a financial stability unit in the central bank to strengthen systemic risk analysis, strengthening the coordination between supervisory agencies, enhancing the central bank’s quarterly macroeconomic projection model by integrating financial sector frictions and other elements, taking specific measures to enhance financial sector regulation, adopting a dynamic loan-loss provisioning to offset rising provisioning cost during economic downturns, and implementing specific macroprudential tools and policies to address financial system risks.