Background. The case for sovereign state-contingent debt instruments (SCDIs) as a countercyclical and risk-sharing tool has been around for some time and remains appealing; but take-up has been limited. Earlier staff work had advocated the use of growth-indexed bonds in emerging markets and contingent financial instruments in low-income countries. In light of recent renewed interest among academics, policymakers, and market participants—staff has analyzed the conceptual and practical issues SCDIs raise with a view to accelerate the development of self-sustaining markets in these instruments. The analysis has benefited from broad consultations with both private market participants and policymakers. The economic case for SCDIs. By linking debt service to a measure of the sovereign’s capacity to pay, SCDIs can increase fiscal space, and thus allow greater policy flexibility in bad times. They can also broaden the sovereign’s investor base, open opportunities for risk diversification for investors, and enhance the resilience of the international financial system. Should SCDI issuance rise to account for a large share of public debt, it could also significantly reduce the incidence and cost of sovereign debt crises. Some potential complications require mitigation: a high novelty and liquidity premium demanded by investors in the early stage of market development; adverse selection and moral hazard risks; undesirable pricing effects on conventional debt; pro-cyclical investor demand; migration of excessive risk to the private sector; and adverse political economy incentives.
This assessment finds that Argentina has made significant progress to improve its securities regulatory system within the existing legal framework. This assessment finds areas that need to be improved. The reinforcement of supervision powers in accordance to international standards represents an immediate task. The assessment included a review of the main securities laws, executive decrees, and general and trading of securities. The government acknowledges that important challenges remain, and the assessments were noteworthy to identify many of them.
Argentina’s insurance market is fragmented, and competition has increased in recent years. Currently, excessive premium discounting by insurance companies is creating risks that insurance companies may be under-reserved and may not be able to meet future liabilities. The evolution of liability insurance is positive but will require developing specific expertise. In line with developments around the world, the adoption of a risk-based supervisory approach is essential to properly monitor a rapidly evolving market. To successfully address these challenges, additional resources as well as operational independence is required.
The Paraguayan authorities have prepared an economic program to stabilize their macroeconomic situation and begin a process of structural reform. Fiscal adjustment and structural reforms should pave the way for more rapid growth over the medium term. Despite these expected improvements in economic policies and performance, Paraguay remains vulnerable to external shocks. The fiscal situation has deteriorated sharply in recent years. Severe financing constraints have produced sizable public sector payments arrears. On the revenue side, the government's fiscal strategy is to raise revenues while minimizing increases in tax rates.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
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International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
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Mr. Andrew J Tiffin, Mr. Christian B. Mulder, and Mr. Charalambos Christofides
This paper examines the relationship between adherence to international standards of good practice in policy-making and two key indicators of access to capital markets and the cost of this access: spreads and sovereign ratings. In contrast to other work, this study reviews a broad set of indicators for adherence to international standards. The estimations are conducted for emerging market economies, and pay particular attention to issues of persistence in spreads and ratings and nonlinearities in the relationships. The main finding confirms the expectation that standards are indeed relevant. Accounting standards and property rights are especially important for spreads, in addition to data transparency (SDDS subscription). Accounting standards and corruption are especially important in explaining ratings in addition to trade protectiveness (not a standard).