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Mr. Alberto Behar and Sandile Hlatshwayo
This note explains the value of strategic foresight and provides implementation advice based on the IMF’s experience with scenario planning and policy gaming. Section II provides an overview of strategic foresight and some of its tools. Scenario planning and policy gaming have been the Fund’s main foresight techniques so far, though other tools have been complementary. Accordingly, section III focuses on the scenario planning by illustrating applications before detailing the methods we have been using, while section IV describes policy gaming including the matrix policy gaming approach with which we have experimented so far. Section V summarizes the key points. In so doing, the note extends an invitation to those in the economics and finance fields (e.g., researchers, policymakers) to incorporate strategic foresight in their analysis and decision making.
Mr. Dimitri G Demekas and Pierpaolo Grippa
There are demands on central banks and financial regulators to take on new responsibilities for supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy. Regulators can indeed facilitate the reorientation of financial flows necessary for the transition. But their powers should not be overestimated. Their diagnostic and policy toolkits are still in their infancy. They cannot (and should not) expand their mandate unilaterally. Taking on these new responsibilities can also have potential pitfalls and unintended consequences. Ultimately, financial regulators cannot deliver a low-carbon economy by themselves and should not risk being caught again in the role of ‘the only game in town.’
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The main macro-financial risks relate to extensive linkages to Mainland China, stretched real estate valuations, and exposure to shifts in global market and domestic risk sentiment, compounded by escalating U.S.-China tensions. Stress tests show that the financial system is resilient to severe macro-financial shocks, but there are pockets of vulnerabilities in foreign bank branches, investment funds, households, and nonfinancial corporates. Hong Kong SAR’s financial sector is also exposed to physical and transition risks from climate change.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Jamaica’s Sixth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). All quantitative performance criteria, indicative targets, and the structural benchmark at end-June were met, marking a successful completion of the SBA. Discussions centered on policies to lock-in macroeconomic stability and advance supply-side reforms to promote inclusive growth, including: building institutions and advancing fiscal reforms to safeguard and sustain economic stability and debt reduction; improving monetary operations and policy transmission; and bolstering financial inclusion, access to credit, and formality. Most structural policy commitments are on track, although some key reforms to public sector transformation, the compensation framework for public employees, legislation to establish a fiscal council, and creating a special resolution regime for financial institutions have been delayed due to capacity constraints and the need to build stakeholder support for these reforms. Important gains have been made in the oversight of financial institutions.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This IMF Staff Report for the 2016 Discussion on Common Policies of Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) Member Countries highlights that the regional recovery in ECCU is gaining ground, supported by continued low oil prices, strong tourism arrivals, and robust citizenship-by-investment receipts. Risks to the near-term outlook are balanced, but growth in the ECCU continues to be hindered by weak competitiveness, banking sector fragilities, susceptibility to natural disasters, and large public debt. The Executive Directors have encouraged the authorities to press ahead with sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms to decisively address these issues and strengthen the conditions for robust long term growth.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Morocco’s Ex Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2012 Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) Arrangement. The Ex Post Evaluation confirms that the 2012–14 PLL arrangement was consistent with the PLL qualification standards and requirements under the exceptional access policy at the time of the PLL arrangement request in August 2012 and at the subsequent reviews. The authorities’ policies helped maintain macroeconomic stability and reduce fiscal and external vulnerabilities, despite unfavorable external developments. It is observed that despite the significant macroeconomic achievements under the 2012–14 PLL arrangement, a number of policy challenges remained to be fully addressed.
International Monetary Fund
Angola has made significant progress toward economic stabilization. Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), the government’s key fiscal anchor is the non-oil primary fiscal deficit (NOPD), and the revised 2010 budget is determined to avoid any increase in the non-oil primary deficit. Policy discussions focused on the fiscal stance for the remainder of 2010, and in 2011, the resolution framework for clearing domestic arrears payment, reforming the tax system, strengthening the asset-liability management capacity, and improving the tools for monetary management.
International Monetary Fund
Tanzania’s performance ranks among the best for non-oil exporting countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The 2008/09 budget will aim at maintaining hard-won fiscal stability in the face of large spending needs and uncertain financing. Tighter budget constraints highlight the need to further expand the revenue base and achieve greater efficiency and effectiveness of government spending. Building on its recent success of reining in reserve money growth, the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) will aim to gradually bring down inflation to its medium-term objective of 5 percent.
International Monetary Fund
Papua New Guinea’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that the economy continues to perform well as the recovery maintains its momentum and the authorities adhere to disciplined fiscal and monetary policies. The central government budget has been estimated to be once more in surplus in 2005, as mining and petroleum revenue remain strong and overall expenditure is kept in check, resulting in a further reduction in public sector debt. Monetary policy has achieved a favorable combination of relatively low interest rates and inflation.
International Monetary Fund
This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that the macroeconomic performance of United Arab Emirates is estimated to have been strong in 2003, reflecting favorable developments in the oil market, higher oil production, and prices. Non-hydrocarbon real GDP growth is estimated to have remained robust at about 5 percent, one of the highest in the Gulf Cooperation Council area. Several projects were launched in 2003 in the areas of construction, upstream gas, and downstream oil services. Progress in introducing structural reforms has varied among the Emirates.