Asia and Pacific > Lao People's Democratic Republic

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International Monetary Fund
This paper concludes that the existing framework remains broadly appropriate, but proposes methodological refinements to improve the assessment of market access, clarifies how serious short-term vulnerabilities are assessed, and proposes a modest extension of the transition period before graduation decisions become effective.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Lao People’s Democratic Republic (P.D.R) analyses that after more than a decade of high growth with low inflation, country is solidifying its progress toward graduating from the Least Developed Country (LDC) status. However, more than one-fifth of the population remains poor, regional disparities are persistent, and recurring natural disasters pose risks for poverty reduction. A large current account deficit, low level of reserves, a high level of debt, managed exchange rate, and a dollarized banking system amplify macro-vulnerabilities. The authorities recognize the current economic challenges and their comprehensive reform programs aim at rebalancing the economy from a resource based to a more diversified growth model by investing in human development and improving competitiveness. Modernizing monetary governance and building reserves supported by greater exchange rate flexibility will help to mitigate external shocks in an uncertain global environment.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Myanmar’s economy stabilized in 2016/17. The new government saw a challenging first year with lower-than-expected growth of 5.9 percent in 2016/17 mainly owing to weak agriculture production and exports, and temporary suspension of some construction projects in Yangon. Inflation moderated to 6.8 percent, and the current account deficit fell to about 3.9 percent of GDP in 2016/17 from 5.1 percent 2015/16. The medium-term macroeconomic outlook remains favorable. Growth is expected to rebound to 6.7 percent in 2017/18 mainly supported by a recovering agriculture sector and exports. Higher fiscal spending anticipated in the second half of 2017/18 owing to buoyant tax revenues will also support growth.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Lao People’s Democratic Republic continues to perform well, supported by a favorable external environment and strong flows of foreign direct investment from its dynamic neighbors. Growth in 2017 was supported by the expansion of electricity exports, construction activity and financial services, but moderated to 6.8 percent as a result of the prohibition on illegal logging, tighter credit conditions and fewer tourist arrivals. Looking ahead, the outlook is positive, with growth on the order of 7 percent per year. Downside risks stem from high public debt and deficits, pockets of weakness, and high dollarization in the banking sector, and a vulnerable external position with low gross international reserves.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the real GDP growth of Lao People’s Democratic Republic is expected to moderate from 7.5 percent in 2015 to 7 percent in 2016. Domestic activity has slowed following a less favorable external environment, and credit growth has also moderated from a high level. As growth continues to moderate in the near-term, inflation is projected to remain in low single digits. The current account deficit is projected to widen to about 19 percent of GDP in 2017 owing to the execution of large infrastructure projects with foreign direct investment.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Myanmar’s economy grew broadly as expected in FY2015/16, at a healthy pace of 7.3 percent, despite massive floods during July–September 2015. Activity softened during the first half of FY2016/17, but is expected to recover in the second half on account of the resumption of construction in Yangon after a temporary halt for regulatory compliance purposes. The growth of agricultural production was softer than expected. The external environment has been weak owing to slowing demand from major trading partners and significant natural gas and other commodity price declines in 2015 and 2016. Macroeconomic imbalances persist, with continuing inflation pressure, an increased fiscal deficit, and a widening external current account deficit.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Myanmar’s economic growth remains strong, but macroeconomic imbalances have increased significantly over the past year. Real GDP growth for FY2014/15 (April–March) is estimated to have reached 8.5 percent. The fiscal deficit increased to 3 percent of GDP in FY2014/15, while credit to the private sector continued to grow strongly at 35 percent (year over year) in March, albeit lower than in FY2013/14. The current account deficit widened to more than 6 percent of GDP, largely reflecting a rapidly rising trade deficit. The Myanmar economy is set for strong growth in 2015 amid signs of overheating. The economy is expected to grow by 8.5 percent, reflecting strong growth momentum and expansionary macroeconomic policies.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the real GDP growth of Lao People’s Democratic Republic is expected to moderate from 8 percent in 2013 to 7.5 percent in 2014. Domestic activity has slowed, and credit growth has declined from excessive levels. Inflation has declined to 3 percent from 6.5 percent at end-2013, largely owing to weaker food and fuel price momentum. To address vulnerabilities, Executive Directors have emphasized the need for continued fiscal consolidation, greater exchange rate flexibility, tighter monetary conditions, strengthened financial supervision, and improved bank resolution and crisis prevention frameworks.
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

Abstract

The Thirty-Seventh Issue of Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund includes decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and the Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund, as well as selected documents to which frequent reference is made in the current activities of the Fund. In addition, it includes documents relating to the IMF, the United Nations, and other international organizations.

Ms. Suzanne Flynn and Mario Pessoa
L'accumulation d’arriérés de dépenses publiques est l'un des problèmes les plus courants de la gestion des finances publiques (GFP). Cette note technique définit les arriérés de dépenses et leur typologie. Elle expose l'impact économique de l'accumulation d'arriérés de dépenses chroniques. Elle aborde les causes profondes des arriérés de dépenses et les mécanismes de prévention et de contrôle des arriérés de dépenses. Elle présente enfin des stratégies de gestion et de régularisation des arriérés de dépenses.