International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Activity returned to its pre-COVID level in 2021. Inflation remains well above the NBK’s 4–6 percent target band, and spillovers from sanctions on Russia will exacerbate price pressures and weaken economic growth in 2022. Kazakhstan benefits from strong fiscal and external buffers but risks to the outlook are elevated due to the uncertain impact on Kazakhstan of the sanctions on Russia and heightened domestic tensions since the January social unrest episode. In the medium term, non-oil growth under the baseline is expected to converge to about 4 percent. Sustainable growth will require greater economic diversification. Climate-related challenges are acute for Kazakhstan given its outsized hydrocarbon sector, high per-capita greenhouse gas emissions, and low domestic energy prices.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This virtual technical assistance (TA) mission supported the Agency in strengthening certain elements of its risk based supervisory framework. The mission focused on assisting the Agency with its development of internal supervisory methodologies for assessing a bank’s ICAAP, and for setting individual Pillar 2 supervisory capital requirements. The mission provided recommendations and targeted training. The priorities for the next TA missions were discussed with the Agency (strengthening banking supervision and cybersecurity, and diagnostic TA of insurance sector supervision will be considered). The mission benefited from simultaneous translation.
The mission welcomes the progress made by the RK in improving the quality of GFS. The Ministry of Finance has taken into account several recommendations of the previous mission on increasing transparency, improving data quality, and regarding the channels used to provide GFS. In particular, updated bridge tables are used when generating statistics, National Fund (NF) data are recorded separately from national budget (NB) data, and GFS are disseminated through the IMF Integrated Data Collection System.