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Asia and Pacific > Korea, Democratic People's Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Korea: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Systemic Risk Analysis, Financial Sector Stress Testing, and an Assessment of Demographic Shift in Korea
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This note presents the systemic risk analysis conducted for the Republic of Korea in the course of the 2019 Korea FSAP. It comprises a forward-looking solvency analysis for banks, insurers, and pension funds, a liquidity stress test for banks, and an assessment of network and interconnectedness for a wide range of financial sector entities and their ties to the real economy. Various structural characteristics of Korea’s economy and its financial system informed the features and focus for its forward-looking risk analysis. They include Korea’s strong export orientation, limited diversification, and its key role as a node in regional and international supply chains. Korea’s financial system has grown by 40 percentage points of GDP since 2013, enhancing the importance of a deep financial sector analysis as conducted through the FSAP. Mortgage insurance schemes are widely used—which was reflected in the way the risk assessment for banks was conducted. Korea’s life and non-life insurance sector is large, highly concentrated and saturated. Fintech developments keep accelerating, in terms of its Open Banking system and e-money providers. Demographic developments in Korea are among the most adverse world-wide, implying a continuous drag on demand, downward pressure on interest rates, financial firms’ income, and hence their capitalization unless they will be altering their business models.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financial system; sensitivity analysis; balance sheet; banking system; central bank; credit risk; housing market; return on assets; sovereign bond; bond yield; real GDP; market structure; solvency analysis; Insurance; Loans; Stress testing; Commercial banks; Insurance companies; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
People’s Republic of China: Detailed Assessment Report on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This report provides a summary of the anti-money laundering/combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) measures in place in the People’s Republic of China (China)1 as at the date of the onsite visit (July 9–27, 2018). It analyzes the level of compliance with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) 40 Recommendations and the level of effectiveness of China’s AML/CFT system and provides recommendations on how the system could be strengthened. China has undertaken a number of initiatives since 2002 that have contributed positively to its understanding of ML/TF risk, although some important gaps remain. Its framework for domestic AML/CFT cooperation and coordination is well established.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; TF risk; risk assessment; banking sector; commercial bank; criminal activity; tax crime; predicate offense; PBC branch; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Legal support in revenue administration; Financial sector; Corruption; Global; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Italy: Detailed Assessment Report on Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This report provides a summary of the anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) measures in place in Italy as at the date of the onsite visit. It analyzes the level of compliance with the Financial Action Task Force recommendations and the level of effectiveness of Italy's AML/CFT system, and provides recommendations on how the system could be strengthened. Italy has a mature and sophisticated AML/CFT regime, with a correspondingly well-developed legal and institutional framework. Law enforcement agencies access, use, and develop good quality financial intelligence. Financial sector supervisors have been using a risk-based approach to varying degrees, but their supervisory tools could be improved.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; TF risk; organized crime; predicate offense; financial system; bank account; extremist group; PIE auditor; risk management; beneficial owner; parent company; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Legal support in revenue administration; Tax evasion; Corruption; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Addressing Korea’s Long-Term Fiscal Challenges
Mr. Murtaza H Syed, Mr. Michael Skaarup, and Mr. Tarhan Feyzioglu
Korea is on the verge of an unprecedented demographic shift. In coming decades, rapid aging will transform it from one of the youngest populations in the OECD to among the oldest in record time. In turn, this shift will put tremendous pressure on the pension system and health and long-term care expenditures. This paper evaluates the impact of population aging on the long-term fiscal position in Korea, and assesses potential policy responses using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model. The paper finds that the key to maintaining a sound long-run fiscal position is to act early and with a range of policy tools, including pension reform, tax base broadening (and, if necessary, rate hikes), improved tax administration and some expenditure reallocation.
Keywords:
WP; rate; expenditure pressure; expenditure growth; consumption pattern
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Korea: 2003 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Korea
International Monetary Fund
Korea has made a spectacular recovery from the Asian crisis. Executive Directors commended this developments, and stressed the need to implement monetary and fiscal polices. They commended the structural reforms, and emphasized the need to strengthen the asset management sector. They welcomed the approval of a free trade agreement with Chile, and looked forward to further trade-opening steps in the agricultural sector. They welcome the three-year roadmap for corporate reform, which eases regulations on 'chaebol' that improve governance.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; staff appraisal; Lee Hun-Jai; Merchandise export; authority
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Korea: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) Data Module
International Monetary Fund
This report assesses Korea’s data dissemination practices against the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) and is complemented by an in-depth assessment of the quality of the key macroeconomic datasets for the national accounts, prices, government finance, monetary, and balance-of-payments statistics. The assessment reveals that Korea meets the SDDS specifications for the coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of all data categories, and for the dissemination of advance release calendars. All agencies demonstrate professionalism, are transparent in their statistical practices and policies, and provide ethical guidelines to their staff.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government finance statistics; issuing; pre-release access list; money-issuing sector; implementation approach; ROSC data module; transaction data; BOK statistics; ROSC process; Monetary statistics; Balance of payments statistics; Consumer price indexes; Producer price indexes; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Korea: Staff Report for the 2002 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic growth of Korea rose to about 6 percent in 2002 from 3 percent in 2001. Buoyant consumption and residential construction spending underpinned the recovery beginning in late 2001. In 2002, exports rebounded strongly in spite of a weaker-than-expected recovery in the global economy. Unemployment has eased to near pre-crisis levels, although wage rises have been matched by productivity growth. In terms of macroeconomic policies, the fiscal surplus was substantially higher than budgeted, resulting in a contractionary fiscal stance in 2002.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; headline CPI; core CPI; government; CPI; food; staff appraisal; Core CPI inflation; public funds; IMF staff estimate; Financial sector; Commercial banks; Budget planning and preparation; Corporate sector; Global; East Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth and Convergence in a Two-Region Model: The Hypothetical Case of Korean Unification
Mr. Michael Funke and Mr. Holger Strulik
The paper discusses the impact and implications of Korean unification by setting up a two-region endogenous growth model. The numerical solutions are based on the formal analytical model, and have been calibrated so that they reflect the observed features of the North and South Korean economies. The numerical solutions provide evidence about the speed of convergence and the large amount of interregional transfers that are required to make the North Korean economy economically viable.
Keywords:
WP; fiscal policy; Korean Unification; Regional Convergence; Economic Growt; government policy; policy rule; consumption-capital ratio; budget constraint; depreciation rate; economic development; government share; regime design; Income; Capital budget; Infrastructure; Wages
Cover Economic Dislocation and Recovery in Lebanon
Economic Dislocation and Recovery in Lebanon
Mr. Jose Martelino, Mr. S. Nuri Erbas, Mr. Adnan Mazarei, Ms. Sena Eken, and Mr. Paul Cashin

Abstract

This paper provides background information on the Lebanese economy, based on an analysis of the economic consequences of war, and discusses several issues that will be central to Lebanon's prospects for recovery