Western Hemisphere > St. Kitts and Nevis

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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper discusses Arab Republic of Egypt’s Fifth Review Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Macroeconomic performance has remained strong in 2018/19, supported by continued sound policy implementation. The report highlights that monetary policy remains anchored by the medium-term objective of bringing inflation to single digits. Core inflation appears to be well contained, however the central bank should remain cautious until disinflation is firmly entrenched. Exchange rate flexibility remains essential to improve resilience to shocks and preserve competitiveness. The outlook remains favorable and provides an opportune juncture to further advance structural reforms to support more inclusive private-sector led growth and job creation. The authorities have launched important reforms of competition policy, public procurement, industrial land allocation, and state-owned enterprises, and sustained implementation will be essential to ensure that statutory changes achieve meaningful results in the business climate. Sustained efforts are needed to advance reforms in competition, industrial land allocation, and governance of state-owned enterprises.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Cabo Verde’s 2019 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Eighteen-Month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI). The PCI aims at bolstering macroeconomic stability through fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing reforms to support medium-term fiscal and debt sustainability. Policy discussions and the PCI-supported program focused on achieving medium-term fiscal and debt sustainability; modernizing the monetary policy framework and continuing to build precautionary reserves; bolstering the financial system resilience; restructuring lossmaking State-Owned Enterprises; and advancing structural reforms to support private sector-led growth. The medium-term outlook is positive although risks are tilted to the downside. Economic growth is projected to remain robust while the fiscal and external positions are expected to improve further, underpinned by growth and programmed structural reforms.
Ms. Yu Shi
This paper identifies a new mechanism leading to inefficiency in capital reallocation at the extensive margin when an economy experiences a sectoral boom. I argue that imperfections in the financial market and capital barriers to entry in the booming sector create a misallocation of managerial talent. Using comprehensive firm-level data from China, I first provide evidence that more productive firms reallocate capital to the booming real estate sector, and demonstrate that the pattern is likely driven by fewer financial constraints on these firms. I then use a structural estimation to verify the talent misallocation. Finally, I calibrate a dynamic model and find that the without the misallocation, the TFP growth in the manufacturing sector would have improved by 0.5% per year.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses options for financing future fiscal deficits in Algeria. Algeria needs to undertake sustained fiscal consolidation to restore fiscal sustainability. The authorities should consider borrowing both domestically and externally to finance future fiscal deficits. Increased government debt issuance would facilitate the development of domestic financial markets by creating a reliable yield curve that serves as a benchmark for private sector issuers. The authorities should consider external borrowing, which would not only mitigate crowding out effects but also strengthen international reserves, broaden the investor base, and raise awareness about Algeria’s economy.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic recovery in Portugal is losing momentum. The slowdown in economic activity that began in the second half of 2015 has persisted, despite still-favorable cyclical tailwinds and supportive macroeconomic policy. The fiscal loosening in place since 2015 and the European Central Bank’s appropriately supportive monetary policy stance have translated into robust consumption growth. However, overall GDP growth is being held back by weaker export growth and sluggish investment, with the latter being weighed down by uncertainty, high levels of corporate debt, and still-pronounced structural bottlenecks. Output is expected to increase by only 1.0 percent in 2016.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
In an environment in which growth and employment prospects in many countries remain subdued and a number of high-profile corruption cases have fueled moral outrage, and amid a growing consensus that corruption can seriously undermine a country’s ability to deliver inclusive economic growth in a number of different areas, addressing corruption globally—in both developed and developing countries—has become increasingly urgent. When corruption impairs government functions, it can adversely affect a number of important determinants of economic performance, including macrofinancial stability, investment, human capital accumulation, and total factor productivity. Moreover, when systemic corruption affects virtually all state functions, distrust of government can become so pervasive that it can lead to violence, civil strife, and conflict, with devastating social and economic implications. This Staff Discussion Note focuses on corruption that arises from the abuse of public office for private gain, whether it manifests itself transactionally (for example, a bribe) or through powerful networks between business and government that effectively result in the privatization of public policy. While designing and implementing an anticorruption strategy requires change on many different levels, the IMF's experience in assisting member countries suggests that several elements need to be given priority: transparency, rule of law, and economic reform policies designed to eliminate excessive regulation. Perhaps most important, however, addressing corruption requires building effective institutions, with the clear objective of developing a competent civil service that takes pride in being independent of both private influence and public interference.
Kevin Greenidge, Mr. Meredith A McIntyre, and Hanlei Yun
Since the 1980’s with the introduction of IMF/WB adjustment programs structural reforms have been a core part of the reform agenda in the Caribbean. The paper reviewed the package of structural reforms in trade liberalization, financial liberalization and tax policy, and gauges their impact on growth. The paper used a set of reform indices to gauge both short-run and long-run effects of structural reforms on growth, controlling for other possible growth determinants using panel dynamic OLS estimation. In addition, recognizing the importance of institutions to growth the empirical analysis also analyzed the impact of institutional quality on growth for a sample of small states including the Caribbean. We concluded that the benefits of structural reforms are only seen over the long-term and in reinvigorating growth the reform effort needs to be revived and include greater attention to strengthening institutional quality.