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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The rapid spread of the virus in Cambodia during 2021 has set the economy back again, after external demand collapsed in 2020. The authorities responded to the crisis with measures to support households and firms, including increased healthcare spending; a new system of cash transfers to vulnerable households; loans and guarantees; tax breaks; and wage subsidies and retraining. Despite these measures, growth is estimated to have contracted by -3.1 percent in 2020. Growth in 2021 is expected to be 2.2 percent, slowly recovering to pre-crisis rates of around 6½ percent.
Mr. Ales Bulir, Daniel Baksa, Mr. Juan S Corrales, Andres Gonzalez, Diego Rodriguez, and Dyna Heng
This technical note and manual (TNM) addresses the following issues: • Evaluating the full implications from the policies adopted to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy requires a well-developed macroeconomic framework. This note illustrates how such frameworks were used to analyze Colombia and Cambodia's shock impact at the beginning of the pandemic. • The use of macroeconomic frameworks is not to infer general policy conclusions from abstract models or empirical analysis but to help policymakers think through and articulate coherent forecasts, scenarios, and policy responses. • The two country cases illustrate how to construct a baseline scenario consistent with a COVID-19 shock within structural macroeconomic models. The scenario is built gradually to incorporate the available information, the pandemic's full effects, and the policy responses. • The results demonstrate the value of combining close attention to the data, near-term forecasting, and model-based analyses to support coherent policies.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Cambodia discusses stable macroeconomic environment, strong growth and ongoing structural reforms have contributed to significant progress toward Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, uncertainties including slower global growth and potential suspension of preferential market access under the Everything but Arms (EBA) scheme highlight the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability while meeting still large development needs, addressing elevated financial sector vulnerabilities, and accelerating structural reforms. Continued strong revenue mobilization efforts and a prudent fiscal stance supported by restraining nondevelopment current spending will allow additional spending to address development needs. Expenditures should be oriented toward supporting inclusive growth through priority infrastructure investment, as well as health and education spending. Policies should be geared toward addressing sizeable spending needs to reach SDG targets in health, education and infrastructure, with support from the private sector and international donors. Accelerated implementation of structural reforms is needed to remove structural constraints to growth, correct external imbalances, address governance and corruption weaknesses and promote sustainable and inclusive development.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Cambodia has made significant progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) due to years of impressive economic growth and reforms. Income growth has outpaced peers, poverty has declined, and the economy has begun to gradually diversify. At the same time, elevated financial sector vulnerabilities, development spending needs, and governance weaknesses pose challenges for further advancing sustainable growth and development.
Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan, Ricardo Marto, Jiri Jonas, and Kaitlyn Douglass
We use a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of alternative public investment scaling-up scenarios, analyzing how improving the efficiency of capital spending and of tax revenue collection affect growth and debt sustainability for three fast-growing Southeast Asian economies: Cambodia, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. We show that a gradual public investment profile is more favorable than front-loading capital spending because we assume governments are able to gradually learn how to invest more efficiently, accelerating public capital accumulation and therefore growth. We discuss the pros and cons of alternative financing options and identify the financing mix that generates the best macroeconomic outcome. Sometimes overlooked, improving the efficiency of revenue collection over time may ease the burden of fiscal adjustment, achieving higher GDP growth with substantially lower debt-to-GDP ratios, and will help policymakers efficiently meet the challenge of addressing large infrastructure gaps while maintaining debt sustainability.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights growth in the Cambodian economy of about 7 percent in 2015, supported by strong garment exports, real estate and construction activity, and a reduction in oil prices. Inflation unexpectedly picked up at the end of 2015, to 2.8 percent, owing to higher food prices following extreme weather, but it remains well contained. Private sector credit growth has averaged nearly 30 percent over the past three years, doubling the credit-to-GDP ratio to 62 percent by the end of 2015. The near-term outlook remains broadly favorable. Growth is projected to remain robust at about 7 percent for 2016–17, supported by strong garment exports and real estate and construction activity.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic activity in Cambodia remained strong with a growth rate at 7 percent in 2014, notwithstanding appreciation of the real effective exchange rate following U.S. dollar strengthening and growing competition from other low-cost garment producers. Inflation fell in 2014 and through 2015, owing to strong external disinflationary pressures from lower food and oil prices. The short-term outlook remains broadly favorable. Growth is projected to remain robust at 7 percent in 2015, while inflation is projected to rise gradually to about 2 percent by end-2015. The fiscal deficit is projected to rise modestly to 2 percent in 2015 as a result of strong measures to improve revenue administration.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Debt Sustainability Analysis update highlights Cambodia’s continued low debt distress rating: all debt burden indicators are projected to remain below the respective thresholds. The authorities have made progress in monitoring their potential contingent liabilities and strengthening debt management. Consistent with the Debt Management Strategy adopted in 2012, there has been progress in monitoring potential contingent liabilities, including those related to power generation and distribution projects under public-private partnerships that receive government guarantees. The latest estimates show that the total investment of all projects amounted to about $3.2 billion (about 25 percent of GDP in 2012), lower than the previous estimate of about 50 percent of GDP in 2011.
Mr. John C Bluedorn, Rupa Duttagupta, Mr. Jaime Guajardo, and Miss Nkunde Mwase
Growth takeoffs in developing economies have rebounded in the past two decades. Although recent takeoffs have lasted longer than takeoffs before the 1990s, a key question is whether they could unravel like some did in the past. This paper finds that recent takeoffs are associated with stronger economic conditions, such as lower post-takeoff debt and inflation levels; more competitive real exchange rates; and better structural reforms and institutions. The chances of starting a takeoff in the 2000s was triple that before the 1990s, with domestic conditions accounting for most of the increase. The findings suggest that if today’s dynamic developing economies sustain their improved policies; they are more likely to stay on course compared to many of their predecessors.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Despite the global slowdown, Cambodia’s economy has been holding up, driven by resilient exports and tourism and a strong real estate recovery. Fiscal policy has remained anchored in rebuilding government deposits and maintaining long-term fiscal debt sustainability, while providing adequate financing for Cambodia’s vast development needs. Executive Dire