In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
The economic recovery in the U.A.E. is gaining strength, but subject to increased regional uncertainty. The government should undertake cost-benefit analysis and implement projects that have high economic return. In order to reduce government-related entities (GRE) risks, the authorities should complete restructuring of GRE debt and communicate their strategy by developing a GRE risk management framework. The central bank has taken steps in strengthening risk monitoring and the management system. The progress made by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in establishing macroeconomic statistics proved an important step toward developing statistical capacity.
The Q&A in this issue features seven questions about policy options for emerging market countries (by Marcos Chamon, Chris Crowe, and Jun Il Kim); research summaries on “Does Trade and Financial Globalization Cause Income Inequality?” (by Chris Papageorgiou) and “The Current Account of Oil-Exporting Countries (by Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho); an article on the launch of the IMF’s new research journal, IMF Economic Review, and the contents of the upcoming IMF Staff Papers, which the new the new journal will succeed in 2010; an article on the upcoming Tenth Annual Jacques Polak Research Conference; a listing of visiting scholars at the IMF during July–September 2009; and listings of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Position Notes.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Middle East and Central Asia is undergoing a remarkable transformation driven by rapid GDP growth and high oil and non-oil commodity prices. The report presents common economic trends and reviews prospects and policies for the coming year in light of the global economic environment. This latest REO includes boxes treating both regional topics--such as growth in the Maghreb countries; developments in the oil markets; the boom in the GCC countries, and the impact of the recent global credit squeeze on the region--and country-specific reviews, of Kazakhstan, Armenia, Egypt, Pakistan, and the UAE.
Domestic demand continued to grow at rapid rates, despite corrective fiscal and monetary policy measures. Although trade and financial sector reforms advanced and foreign direct investment (FDI) regulations were liberalized, there was less progress in improving the business environment, reducing labor market rigidities, and restructuring and privatizing public enterprises. IMF staff stressed the need for further advances in trade liberalization, improved fiscal management, financial system restructuring, labor market reform, privatization, and elimination of subsidies. The managed float exchange regime remains appropriate for Iran.
This paper reviews recent developments in the exchange system in the Islamic Republic of Iran and in the real effective exchange rate (REER). It also considers the determinants of the REER in connection with the choice of exchange regime after unification. The study illustrates how economic policy variables and exogenous shocks affect the real exchange rate primarily through the fiscal balance, and consequently, the savings-investment gap. It further illustrates that the appropriate level of REER and its medium-term path depend upon the mix of monetary, fiscal, and structural policies that underpin the evolution of inflation, balance of payments, and productivity growth.
This paper provides a model for the determination of the parallel market exchange rate premium in a country where oil export earnings accrue directly to the government, and foreign exchange is centrally allocated for the importation of specific goods. Next, it studies the parallel market for foreign exchange In the Islamic Republic of Iran during the period 1978-90. The paper then examines the various time series properties of parallel market exchange rate in Iran, and the evidence of the role of oil and non-oil exports in the determination of the parallel market premium.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper highlights the sources of payments problems in less developed countries. Growth in the industrial countries has a direct impact on the current account of the developing countries through its influence on both the prices and volumes of their exports. An increase in the real effective exchange rate is clearly a fundamental determinant of a deteriorating current account since, other things being equal, it tends to raise domestic demand for imports and to reduce foreign demand for exports.
This publication begins a new series, Occassional papers, designed to fill a gap in the range of publications of the IMF. Occasional Papers will not be on a particular theme but will contain studies on a variety of economic and financial subjects of importance to the work of the Fund, such as overall developments in national economies, the behavior of international capital markets, and problems related to the functioning of the international monetary system.