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Middle East and Central Asia > Iraq

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iraq: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iraq
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that domestic stability has improved since the new government took office in October 2022, facilitating the passage of Iraq’s first three-year budget, which entailed a large fiscal expansion starting in 2023. The ongoing fiscal expansion is expected to boost growth in 2024, at the expense of a further deterioration of fiscal and external accounts and Iraq’s vulnerability to oil price fluctuations. Without policy adjustment, the risk of medium-term sovereign debt stress is high and external stability risks could emerge. Key downside risks include much lower oil prices or a spread of the conflict in Gaza and Israel. A fiscal adjustment is needed to stabilize debt over the medium term while protecting critical social and capital spending. Large savings can be attained from containing the outsized public wage bill and policy measures aimed at mobilizing additional non-oil revenues. Private sector development and economic diversification are crucial to ensure long-term external sustainability and foster private job creation.
Keywords:
governance reform; governance improvement; decarbonization pathway; Iraq's governance framework; CBI bill; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Global; Middle East; North America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iraq: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper offers a roadmap for tax policy measures and structural reforms that could be used to raise non-oil revenues. In order to raise revenues in the near-term, the authorities should review the tariff structure to eliminate exemptions and raise tariffs on luxuries. There is scope to make the personal income taxes more progressive and broaden tax bases. Raising non-oil revenues is a key priority because of the expected decline in oil prices, as well as the need to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and meet sizeable spending needs. Over the medium-term, the authorities should move towards adopting the value added tax and tackle structural obstacles to revenue mobilization—informality, lack of economic diversification, low levels of financial inclusion and high reliance on cash. In parallel, the authorities should significantly accelerate institutional reforms of revenue and customs administration with support of IMF and other donor capacity development efforts.
Keywords:
labor market challenge; labor market structure; labor market indicator; C. assessing Drivers; informality distance; Labor markets; Women; Employment; Global; Middle East and Central Asia