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Mr. Marco Arena, Tingyun Chen, Mr. Seung M Choi, Ms. Nan Geng, Cheikh A. Gueye, Mr. Tonny Lybek, Mr. Evan Papageorgiou, and Yuanyan Sophia Zhang
Macroprudential policy in Europe aligns with the objective of limiting systemic risk, namely the risk of widespread disruption to the provision of financial services that is caused by an impairment of all or parts of the financial system and that can cause serious negative consequences for the real economy.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses Slovakia’s household and private sector indebtedness against macroeconomic fundamentals, identifies key vulnerabilities from rapid household credit growth, assesses policy responses to date, and presents further policy options. Strong private sector credit growth has persisted for over a decade and resulted in household debt that is high relative to peers. Credit is now growing in riskier segments. Housing prices have also started to reflect pressures from strong credit growth. The paper describes assessments of household and private sector debt levels relative to fundamentals. It also describes the policy response to date and assesses its effectiveness. Econometric analysis suggests that household indebtedness is growing at a faster pace than implied by economic fundamentals. The credit cycle seems to have reached its post-crisis high. The credit cyclogram, compiled by the National Bank of Slovakia, is an aggregation of a set of core and supplementary variables evaluated against distributions of their own historical values to disentangle factors cyclical credit growth.
Vincent Belinga, Ms. Dora Benedek, Ruud A. de Mooij, and Mr. John Norregaard
By how much will faster economic growth boost government revenue? This paper estimates short- and long-run tax buoyancy in OECD countries between 1965 and 2012. We find that, for aggregate tax revenues, short-run tax buoyancy does not significantly differ from one in the majority of countries; yet, it has increased since the late 1980s so that tax systems have generally become better automatic stabilizers. Long-run buoyancy exceeds one in about half of the OECD countries, implying that GDP growth has helped improve structural fiscal deficit ratios. Corporate taxes are by far the most buoyant, while excises and property taxes are the least buoyant. For personal income taxes and social contributions, short- and long-run buoyancies have declined since the late 1980s and have, on average, become lower than one.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper estimates a dynamic model of foreign currency loans to households in Austria to analyze their behavior and assess the effectiveness of measures intended to stem their rise. This paper also studies the developments in Austria’s economic linkages with Germany and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). It finds that there has been delinking from Germany, albeit measured, while economic relationships with key CEEC trading partners have become stronger. The paper also discusses the dynamics of Austria’s economic linkages with Germany, and examines these linkages with the CEECs.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The financial turmoil of the late 1990s prompted a broad search for tools and techniques for detecting and preventing financial crises, and more recent episodes of instability have high lighted the importance of continuous monitoring of financial systems as a tool for preventing crises. This paper looks at the development of measures of financial sector soundness and of methods to analyze them. The authors propose two sets of financial soundness indicators that are considered useful for periodic monitoring, and for compilation and dissemination efforts by national authorities. They highlight the substantial advance made in recent years in measuring and analyzing financial soundness indicators, and specify areas where more work is needed.