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International Monetary Fund
This paper proposes a comprehensive Strategy to strengthen IMF support to FCS in accordance with the Fund’s mandate and comparative advantage. The Strategy is a response to the Board-endorsed recommendations of the 2018 Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) Report on The IMF and Fragile States. To achieve these goals, the Strategy will benefit from additional resources reflected in the FY23-25 Medium-Term Budget, as per the budget augmentation framework discussed by the Board in December 2021. The Strategy also provides measures to better support staff working on FCS. Given the inherent risks in FCS engagement, the Strategy will be phased in starting in FY22, with implementation gradually accelerating between FY23-FY25.
Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, Mr. Saad N Quayyum, and Sibabrata Das
The paper analyzes the impact of natural disasters on per-capita GDP growth. Using a quantile regressions and growth-at-risk approach, the paper examines the impact of disasters and policy choices on the distribution of growth rather than simply its average. We find that countries that have in place disaster preparedness mechanisms and lower public debt have lower probability of witnessing a significant drop in growth as a consequence of a natural disaster, but our innovative methodology in this paper finds that the two policies are complements since their effectiveness vary across different disaster scenarios. While both are helpful for small to mid-size disasters, lower debt—and hence more fiscal space—is more beneficial in the face of very large disasters. A balanced strategy would thus involve both policies.
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
This paper seeks to determine the effects that natural disasters have on per capita GDP and on the debt to GDP ratio in the Caribbean. Two types of natural disasters are studied –storms and floods– given their prevalence in the region, while considering the effects of both moderate and severe disasters. I use a vector autoregressive model with exogenous natural disasters shocks, in a panel of 12 Caribbean countries over a period of 40 years. The results show that both storms and floods have a negative effect on growth, and that debt increases with floods but not with storms. However, in a subsample I find that storms significantly increase debt in the short and long run. I also find weak evidence that debt relief contributes to ease the negative effects of storms on debt.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper focuses on Haiti’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper and 2014–2016 Three-Year Investment Program. The Haiti Strategic Development Plan presents the new framework for the planning, programming, and management of Haitian development, the vision and the strategic guidelines for the country’s development, and the four major work areas to be implemented to ensure the recovery and development of Haiti. The Three-Year Investment Program, 2014–2016 (PTI 2014–2016) concerns implementation of the Strategic Plan for Development of Haiti and more specifically implementation of the government’s priorities for the period.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Executive Directors commend Bangladesh in addressing the major challenges to growth and poverty reduction. The strategy is comprehensive and confronts the key issues impeding sustainable development and inclusive growth in Bangladesh. Implementing sound macro-financial policies, intensifying revenue mobilization, improving the business environment, ensuring trade liberalization, and improving governance and accountability are top priorities. Actions should be sequenced according to these priorities. Severe external shocks could reignite macroeconomic pressures and undermine socioeconomic targets.
Ms. Nicole Laframboise and Mr. Boileau Loko
This paper reviews the literature on the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters and presents the IMF’s role in assisting countries coping with natural catastrophes. Focusing on seven country cases, the paper describes the emergency financing, policy support, and technical assistance provided by the Fund to help governments put together a policy response or build a macro framework to lay the foundation for recovery and/or unlock other external financing. The literature and experience suggests there are ways to strengthen policy frameworks to increase resilience to natural disaster shocks, including identifying the risks and probability of natural disasters and integrating them more explicitly into macro frame-works, increasing flexibility within fiscal frameworks, and improving coordination amongst international partners ex post and ex ante.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Le numéro de septembre 2007 de F&D s'intéresse à la croissance des villes et à la tendance à l'urbanisation. Au cours de l'année à venir, pour la première fois dans l'histoire, plus de 50 % de la population mondiale vivra dans des zones urbaines plutôt qu'en zone rurale. Quelles sont les implications économiques de cette révolution urbaine ? Les économistes s'accordent généralement pour dire qu'une urbanisation bien gérée présente un fort potentiel d'augmentation de la croissance et d'amélioration de la qualité de vie. Mais comme l'indique l'article de couverture, l'inverse est également vrai : mal gérée, l'urbanisation peut non seulement entraver le développement, mais également favoriser l'émergence de bidonvilles. Les autres articles de cette série s'intéressent à la pauvreté urbaine dans le monde en développement, ainsi qu'à la prolifération des mégalopoles et des conséquences de celle-ci en matière de gouvernance, de financement et de prestations de services. D'autres articles abordent le difficile rééquilibrage de la croissance en Chine. La rubrique « Paroles d'économistes » tend le micro à Robert Barro, économiste d'Harvard ; « Gros plan » présente les difficultés auxquelles le Mexique est confronté ; et « L'ABC de l'économie » s'intéresse au taux de change réel.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Este número está dedicado al crecimiento de las ciudades y a la tendencia hacia la urbanización. Durante el próximo año, por primera vez en la historia, más del 50% de la población mundial vivirá en zonas urbanas. ¿Cuáles son las consecuencias económicas? La generalidad de los expertos concuerda en que, si se la maneja bien, la urbanización encierra grandes promesas para el crecimiento y la calidad de vida. Pero como argumenta el artículo central, si se la maneja mal podría no solo impedir el desarrollo sino también estimular la formación de barrios de emergencia. Otros artículos abordan el tema de la pobreza como fenómeno urbano en el mundo en desarrollo y el nacimiento de las megaciudades, con sus implicaciones para la gobernabilidad, el financiamiento y el suministro de servicios. Una serie de artículos están dedicados a la dificultad de reequilibrar el crecimiento en China. Gente del mundo de la Economía presenta un perfil de Robert Barro, de la Universidad de Harvard; Panorama nacional se ocupa de México, y Vuelta a lo esencial analiza los tipos de cambio reales.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The September 2007 issue of F&D looks at the growth of cities and the trend toward urbanization. Within the next year, for the first time in history, more than 50 percent of the world's population will be living in urban rather than rural areas. What are the economic implications of this urban revolution? Economists generally agree that urbanization, if handled well, holds great promise for higher growth and a better quality of life. But as the lead article tells us, the flip side is also true: if handled poorly, urbanization could not only impede development but also give rise to slums. Other articles in this series look at poverty as an urban phenomenon in the developing world and the development of megacities and what this means for governance, funding, and the provision of services. Another group of articles discusses the challenge of rebalancing growth in China. 'People in Economics' profiles Harvard economist Robert Barro; 'Country Focus' looks at the challenges facing Mexico, and 'Back to Basics' takes a look at real exchange rates.
Mr. Paolo Mauro
There is increasing recognition that corruption has substantial, adverse effects on economic growth. But if the costs of corruption are so high, why don’t countries strive to improve their institutions and root out corruption? Why do many countries appear to be stuck in a vicious circle of widespread corruption and low economic growth, often accompanied by ever-changing governments through revolutions and coups? A possible explanation is that when corruption is widespread, individuals do not have incentives to fight it even if everybody would be better off without it. Two models involving strategic complementarities and multiple equilibria attempt to illustrate this formally.