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International Monetary Fund
This paper proposes a comprehensive Strategy to strengthen IMF support to FCS in accordance with the Fund’s mandate and comparative advantage. The Strategy is a response to the Board-endorsed recommendations of the 2018 Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) Report on The IMF and Fragile States. To achieve these goals, the Strategy will benefit from additional resources reflected in the FY23-25 Medium-Term Budget, as per the budget augmentation framework discussed by the Board in December 2021. The Strategy also provides measures to better support staff working on FCS. Given the inherent risks in FCS engagement, the Strategy will be phased in starting in FY22, with implementation gradually accelerating between FY23-FY25.
Sailendra Pattanayak, Racheeda Boukezia, Yasemin Hurcan, and Ramon Hurtado
Fiscal institutional capacity in most fragile states (FS) and several low-income developing countries (LIDCs) is much lower than in other countries. Governments in these countries face several cash management challenges because they often lack credible budgets, have smaller and less diversified revenue bases, have limited access to financial markets, and rely largely on donors to fund a large portion of their budgets. Available public funds in these countries often remain dispersed outside the control of the ministry of finance. In the absence of a good cash forecasting function, these countries typically resort to cash rationing to meet their priority spending needs, often in an ad hoc manner, which can adversely affect budget execution and achievement of fiscal policy targets. This note sets out the key objectives and building blocks of a cash management function in FS and LIDCs. It suggests several measures to progressively build cash management capacity in three interrelated areas: consolidating cash resources, forecasting cash flows, and managing cash balances with sound institutional setups.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This report reviews the IMF’s effort to build fiscal capacity in fragile states. It presents case studies on IMF technical assistance (TA) and capacity development in the fiscal area, provided by its Fiscal Affairs Department in collaboration with the Legal Department, in countries including Afghanistan, Haiti, Kosovo, Liberia, Mali, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Timor-Leste. The details in the case studies in various areas of fiscal policy management shed light on country-specific characteristics, how well IMF TA helped countries address fiscal capacity in the past, and lessons learned that could improve TA strategies and delivery in the future.
International Monetary Fund
The paper draws on recent country experience to describe the approach to designing and implementing fiscal reforms in fragile states (FS) taken in the IMF’s technical assistance (TA). In doing so, it highlights how the TA that the IMF provides to FS differs from that of non-FS, describes the trends in and modalities of TA delivery, and draws on recent experiences to derive lessons for future work.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Haiti’s 2006 and 2010 Fund-supported programs started under very different circumstances but shared the main objectives of preserving macroeconomic stability and creating the conditions for a sustained growth takeoff through structural reform. The 2006 program started as Haiti was making progress toward macroeconomic stabilization. Reducing inflation and avoiding fiscal dominance of monetary policy were top priorities. The 2010 program started in the aftermath of a devastating earthquake. It faced the challenges of dealing with a huge inflow of aid and scaling up public investment. Both programs aimed to foster reforms to address long-standing governance and transparency concerns, as well as improving revenue mobilization to increase fiscal space and reduce fiscal vulnerabilities. Growth was to rise to 4-6 percent, an ambitious objective given Haiti’s long history of serious fragility with near zero or negative growth. There were notable successes during the two programs. Despite a series of shocks, inflation remained in single digits and international reserves increased by more than expected, which helped to limit exchange rate volatility in the context of the large aid inflow. Program performance criteria effectively eliminated central bank credit to the government, thus reducing risks of fiscal dominance. Structural reforms also advanced, particularly during the 2006 program which coincided with the HIPC process. Revenue administration improved, with tax revenue rising steadily over the two programs. These achievements were not negligible given Haiti’s history.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This is the final review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. The program contributed to maintaining macroeconomic stability, and there was progress on structural reforms. The authorities intend to request a successor arrangement under the ECF. A new finance minister was appointed in April; uncertainly remains on the timing of elections. Preliminary data suggest that GDP in FY2014 grew by 3.5–4 percent, while inflation increased slightly to about 5 percent. An increase in fuel prices (in October) should result in fiscal savings of at least 1 percent of GDP during FY2015. The March performance criterion on net international reserves (NIR) was met, but although the deficit was lower than projected, the performance criterion on net central bank credit to the central government was missed. Downside risks are significant and include a pull-back of Venezuela-related flows, a resumption of political tensions, and vulnerability to weather events. A total of SDR 1.638 million will become available upon completion of this review, bringing total disbursements under the ECF to SDR 40.950 million. Key Policy Recommendations: • The policy mix, in particular the adjustment going forward, should come from a lower fiscal deficit rather than from a tighter monetary policy. The FY2015 fiscal deficit should be reduced to mitigate financing risks as part of a medium-term plan to restore fiscal sustainability. • The central bank should let the exchange rate adjust more to market pressures. Intervention should be parsimonious, geared at avoiding excess volatility and disorderly movements in the exchange rate; it should be guided by fundamentals in the medium term. • Progress on structural reforms (including on the energy sector and on public financial management) should catalyze more donor support and is essential for supporting growth. A possible new ECF arrangement would entrench macroeconomic stability and promote policies to generate sustained GDP growth.
International Monetary Fund
In this study, owing to the global financial crisis, a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for the Dominican Republic was approved. The aim is to limit the procyclical policies in the short-term and discussions focused on policies necessary to ensure that the end-2011 and 2011 targets are observed. Administrative measures such as proindustria, withholding income tax, and indexation of specific tax are estimated to increase revenues. The conditional cash program “Solidaridad” is explained. Finally, various issues under the financial program are discussed.
International Monetary Fund
A 28-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for the Dominican Republic was introduced against the global recession. The main objective of the program is to limit the procyclicality of policies. The countercyclical macroeconomic program improved confidence and fostered aggregate demand. Monetary policy remained accommodative with a record low policy rate. Fiscal policy became countercyclical. All structural benchmarks were observed. IMF staff supports the waiver requests and the completion of the first SBA review given the proposed actions and satisfactory performance.
International Monetary Fund
In this study, against the background of deteriorating external conditions owing to the global crisis, a 28-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for the Dominican Republic is reviewed. The objective is to limit the procyclicality of policies in the short term. The macroeconomic situation has improved significantly. All performance criteria and structural benchmarks were observed. IMF staff supports completion of the second and third SBA reviews and the targets proposed for 2011 in view of the positive macroeconomic performance. Additional measures have been introduced to meet program targets.