International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Haiti has been hit hard by the global food price shock. In September 2022, food inflation reached 44 percent, with rice inflation nearly 70 percent. With more than half the population already below the poverty line, Haiti faces a dire humanitarian crisis, with an expected financing gap in FY2023 of at least US$105 million (0.5 percent of GDP), assuming import compression and pending additional external financing from development partners. This shock compounds the hardships of an already highly fragile country—also suffering a public health emergency (cholera) and serious security risks. In line with global trends and also due to an escalation of violence, the macroeconomic situation has been more challenging relative to the outlook in June 2022, at the time of the approval of the Staff Monitored Program (SMP). That said, recent data suggest that the authorities are making meaningful efforts to overcome the multiple challenges facing the country and the First Review of the SMP was approved by IMF Management on December 21, 2022.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Haiti is faced with many difficulties, which have been worsened by higher food and fuel prices stemming from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Because of this global shock and a deterioration of the domestic security situation, the economy has become even more fragile, and the macroeconomic situation and outlook are more challenging than in June 2022, when the Staff Monitored Program was approved by IMF Management. In line with global trends, growth has been weaker than expected and inflation higher. Despite the more difficult macroeconomic situation and downside risks, recent data and progress on structural reforms suggest that the authorities are making meaningful efforts to ease the country’s multiple challenges.
From August to October 2020, the Haitian authorities were successful at bringing about a sharp appreciation in the gourde/U.S. dollar exchange rate. This paper analyzes the factors behind this appreciation and its spillovers on the economy. It finds that foreign exchange surrender requirements had a statistically significant effect on the nominal exchange rate, while foreign exchange intervention by the central bank did not. Surrender requirements were also found to have raised trading costs and volatility in the foreign exchange market and contributed to the development of a wider parallel nominal exchange rate premium. This appreciation contributed to a decline in headline inflation during the episode while delivering some fuel subsidy-related savings to the government. Remittance-dependent households and exporters saw a drop in their purchasing power, and Haiti’s net external buffers were adversely affected. Following from these findings, the paper offers recommendations on ways to facilitate foreign exchange management and boost external sustainability while contributing to the central bank’s overall policy objectives.