This paper reviews Ex-Post Assessment of Performance Under IMF-Supported Programs for Guinea-Bissau. More than two-thirds of the population of approximately 1.3 million is living below the poverty line in Guinea-Bissau. The paper describes developments under IMF-supported programs since 1993, when Guinea-Bissau embarked on a second round of stabilization and reform efforts. It summarizes the lessons learned and the challenges for the near future. Possible future role of IMF in Guinea-Bissau is also discussed.
This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper analyzes recent economic developments in Guinea-Bissau. The paper highlights the structural problems that will need to be addressed over the next few years if Guinea-Bissau is to break through the downward spiral of declining economic activity, increasing poverty, and political instability. The paper examines the real, fiscal, and monetary sectors in Guinea-Bissau. It also provides an overview of recent developments in the balance of payments and highlights Guinea-Bissau’s severe external debt problem.
This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that Guinea-Bissau’s economic performance has weakened substantially in recent years. Real GDP declined by 7 percent in 2002 and was flat in 2003. Structural reforms stalled after the war; the private sector remained incapacitated because of the destruction of equipment and infrastructure caused by the conflict, and the loss of stocks owing to confiscating and looting. In 2003, the external current account deficit, excluding official transfers, halved relative to the previous year, to 6.7 percent of GDP, reflecting higher cashew nut exports and stagnating imports.
The evaluation focus was on three main objectives: Assessing whether the AFRITACs have provided value added to beneficiary countries; Assessing the extent to which the AFRITACs’ objectives have been achieved; and Assessing whether the AFRITACs have enhanced cooperation between stakeholders in their respective regions.
The first part of this paper lays out the process of program design and briefly describes some of the analytical tools--including the financial programming framework, the balance sheet approach, and the debt sustainability template--employed by Fund country teams in advising national authorities on policy formulation. The second part of paper seeks to assess how well this process works in practice.