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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The WAEMU has seen strong growth and rising living standards over the past decade. Economic growth averaged 5.4 percent in 2013-2019 and 5.8 percent in 2021-2023. Policy efforts from regional and national authorities have cushioned the impact of several external and internal shocks, prompting a solid economic recovery since the COVID-19 pandemic, despite increasing security issues. Meanwhile, the Human Development Index has increased from 0.44 in 2013 to 0.48 in 2021.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper analyzes Guinea-Bissau’s Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Requests for Augmentation of Access, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Guinea Bissau’s socio-political context remained stable during the transition to an opposition-led new government, but the country is facing an adverse external shock. Performance under the ECF supported program was weaker than expected. Four out of eight Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPC) were missed for June 2023. The QPC on the domestic primary balance was missed because of the significant discretionary spending overrun during the election period. However, the new government has demonstrated its strong commitment to fiscal consolidation and securing debt sustainability. Program performance was weaker than expected, but the authorities have adopted corrective actions and a draft 2024 budget in line with program parameters. They are strictly rationalizing nonpriority expenditure, mobilizing additional revenue, and tightly controlling the wage bill. Continued efforts in these areas and sustained fiscal consolidation are needed to ensure debt sustainability.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Contexto. O contexto sociopolítico da Guiné-Bissau manteve-se estável durante a transição para um novo governo liderado pela oposição, mas o país enfrenta um choque externo adverso. O desempenho dececionante das exportações de castanha de caju aumentou substancialmente o défice da conta corrente, enquanto o financiamento é limitado por condições financeiras regionais mais restritivas. Os elevados preços dos produtos alimentares estão a dar origem a riscos de insegurança alimentar. Neste contexto, as autoridades solicitaram um aumento do acesso de 40% da quota (11,36 milhões de DSE) para satisfazer necessidades de financiamento prementes, elevando o acesso total do programa para 140% da quota (39,76 milhões de DSE). O programa apoiado pela Facilidade de Crédito Alargado (ECF) tem catalisado o muito necessário financiamento em condições altamente concessionais, em especial para o apoio orçamental adicional.