Western Hemisphere > Guatemala

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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The remarkable resilience of the economy during the pandemic, driven by policy support, favorable credit conditions and a favorable external environment, has almost returned the level of GDP to its pre-pandemic projected trend. Reflecting the prevalence of domestic factors, headline inflation eased to 3 percent (the lower limit of the inflation target band) at end-2021. For 2022, growth is expected to moderate while inflation is expected to rise in line with global inflationary pressures. Despite the resilience, social indicators such as poverty and malnutrition remain high. The outlook is very uncertain with significant downside risks, mostly external, including from the pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and the tightening of global financial conditions in response to global inflationary pressures.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Guatemala has managed to keep infections and deaths moderate during the pandemic. The economic impact of COVID-19 has been mild given an early reopening of the economy, unprecedented policy support, and resilient remittances and exports. However, despite large-scale government interventions to support households, poverty and malnutrition have deteriorated following COVID-19 and the two major hurricanes battering Guatemala last November.
Mr. Michael Stanger
Monthly economic indicators support policy analysis of current economic developments and forecasting. This paper presents an overview of the data and statistical requirements to develop those indicators taking into account resource constraints that LIC typically face. We review statistical procedures for developing these indicators under the System of National Accounts and propose a general procedure to derive a monthly composite indicator of economic growth in low income economies.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that a sound monetary policy management in Guatemala has helped keep inflation expectations firmly anchored. Fiscal deficits have remained at decade lows on the back of low debt tolerance and inadequate budgetary execution. Terms of trade gains and an upsurge in remittances inflows moved the current account into a sizable surplus. The financial system is sound and well-regulated while vulnerabilities seem manageable. Growth performance nevertheless falls shorts of the rates needed to achieve Guatemala’s aspirations to meaningfully lift the living standards of its citizens. Near-term growth prospects remain subdued, at 3.2 percent in 2018 and 3.6 percent in 2019.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This paper discusses the key findings of the report on statistics technical assistance (TA) and training evaluation mission on Guatemala. It is observed that overall users trust macroeconomic statistics in Guatemala. Data-producing agencies viewed TA and training provided by Statistics Department, IMF during 1998–2015 as most effective to improving the quality of statistics. There is broad recognition of the Bank of Guatemala’s key role in producing and disseminating statistics. There was consensus that TA and training were effective and helped enhance data quality of all datasets, but to a modest extent Government Finance Statistics and Producer Price Index. The effectiveness of TA largely depends on capacity built in the main data-producing agencies.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Guatemala. The fiscal deficit is increasing owing to a sharp decline in revenues, associated with the contraction in imports and domestic demand. The policy interest rate has been cut. All quantitative performance criteria through June have been met. Inflation has fallen below the consultation band set in the program, triggering a consultation with IMF staff. Fiscal policy needs to continue striking a balance between avoiding a procyclical stance and maintaining debt sustainability.
International Monetary Fund
This report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) provides an assessment of Guatemala’s macroeconomic statistics against the General Data Dissemination System complemented by an assessment of data quality based on the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework. The assessment reveals that the legal framework for statistical activity is broadly adequate, and institutions display a commitment to disseminate macroeconomic statistics, largely through the Internet. However, there is scope to improve the methodological basis and source data underpinning most datasets, as well as the mix and level of resources in a few cases.